The first race of the playoffs can be chaotic. Toss in a course with the nickname of the Track Too Touch to Tame and one might not be surprised by the fact that nearly half of the playoff contenders went home after Round 1, Race 1 with results in the back half of the field. Five drivers finished outside the top 25, two were in the low-20s and another two finished outside the top 15, which creates a tight battle at the bubble.
In this same race last year, however, playoff contenders fared much better. Four drivers finished 20th or worse, but no one was outside the top 25.
Four drivers will drop out of the playoffs in two weeks and no one wants the ignominy of being eliminated early.
Richmond Raceway is a fairly predictable track, but that is not going to reduce the anxiety felt in the field. Last year, the top-10 positions in this race were swept by playoff contending drivers. To the “glass-half-empty” crowd, that means there is not going to be a lot of opportunities to make up points on the competition.
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Projected to make the Championship
Kyle Larson (5 wins / 13 stage wins / 2,106 points)
PointsBet Championship Odds: +225
Power Ranking: 1 (5.44)
Points’ Standings: 1
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Richmond: 17.00
Bristol: 9.00
Las Vegas: 6.33
Larson is not resting on his laurels, nor is he happy with the 52 playoff bonus points he brought with him into the Round of 16. He destroyed his car on the final set of turns for the Southern 500 in a desperate attempt to keep Denny Hamlin out of Victory Lane and deny him the five bonus points that go with victory. In 2021, winning the championship is equally about offense and defense.
Denny Hamlin (1 win / 6 stage wins / 2,072 points)
PointsBet Championship Odds: +475
Power Ranking: 2 (5.87)
Points’ Standings: 2
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Richmond: 7.60
Bristol: 11.60
Las Vegas: 4.67
Hamlin picked a good time to win. With only 15 bonus points entering the playoffs, one bad race could put him in jeopardy of failing to advance and he knows how likely that is after watching teammate Kyle Busch, last year’s champion Chase Elliott, and several others experience trouble at Darlington. With a stage win, he now has 21 bonus points, which is the fifth-best in the field and his path to Phoenix is suddenly a little easier. Don’t sleep on him, because he could win back-to-back races at Richmond – a track that has been kind in the past.
Chase Elliott (2 wins / 3 stage wins / 2,030 points)
PointsBet Championship Odds: +900
Power Ranking: 3 (6.40)
Points’ Standings: 10
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Richmond: 9.80
Bristol: 9.60
Las Vegas: 26.00
Elliott squandered his 21 playoff bonus points last week with an accident that sent him home 31st. The good news is that he had that buffer and if he can put in a clean race at Richmond and Bristol Motor Speedway, the points will reset when the Round of 12 begins. Sitting 10th in the points for the moment, his fate is in his own hands and that is more than Ky. Busch or William Byron can say.
Martin Truex Jr. (3 wins / 5 stage wins / 2,062 points)
PointsBet Championship Odds: +800
Power Ranking: 6 (10.93)
Points’ Standings: 3
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Richmond: 2.40
Bristol: 20.80
Las Vegas: 8.83
One strong performance is not enough to make us suddenly believe that Truex will start dominating races, but his elevation to third in the points is a clear indication of what can happen when a driver gets on a roll. Truex opened the week as PointsBet Sportsbook’s favorite to win the Federated Auto Parts 400 – and that might be a little overly enthusiastic – but his fans can rest a little easier about his odds of making the Championship 4.
Projected to Advance to Round 3
Ryan Blaney (3 wins / 4 stage wins / 2,048 points)
PointsBet Championship Odds: +1200
Power Ranking: 4 (7.93)
Points’ Standings: 2
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Richmond: 18.20
Bristol: 14.80
Las Vegas: 9.17
Brake fade at the end of the Southern 500 denied Blaney an opportunity for a strong Darlington finish. He was lucky that so many other playoff contenders had trouble as well, which gives him a little cushion entering a track where he has not yet cracked the top 10. Blaney’s best Richmond result was an 11th earned this spring.
William Byron (1 win / 3 stage wins / 2,017 points)
PointsBet Championship Odds: +2000
Power Ranking: 12 (13.74)
Points’ Standings: 15
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Richmond: 17.00
Bristol: 21.20
Las Vegas: 19.17
In two previous appearances in the playoffs, Byron failed to advance from the Round of 16 once. His results were increasingly worse last year when he finished fifth at Darlington, 21st at Richmond, and 38th at Bristol. His wreck last week in the Southern 500 puts him in jeopardy of failing to advance again. This Federated 400 is going to be a big test of how well he can maintain his composure.
Joey Logano (1 win / 5 stage wins / 2,047 points)
PointsBet Championship Odds: +1400
Power Ranking: 14 (14.32)
Points’ Standings: 6
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Richmond: 6.60
Bristol: 11.00
Las Vegas: 13.50
We’ve been wondering if several of the top drivers in the field would pick up their game during the playoffs. Hamlin did. Truex may have – and the same is true of Logano at Darlington. He moved up to a comfortable sixth in the points and can afford to go into protection mode. He may not need to, however, because he enters Richmond with six top-fives in his last eight races there. One of these was a win in 2017.
Alex Bowman (3 wins / 0 stage wins / 2,026 points)
PointsBet Championship Odds: +1400
Power Ranking: 18 (17.24)
Points’ Standings: 13
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Richmond: 12.40
Bristol: 19.80
Las Vegas: 13.50
Bowman is 13th in the points but he is tied with a driver with far less experience. Last week was horrible for the Hendrick Motorsports drivers and momentum can be lost in a single race. It’s too soon to assume that will happen, however, and for the moment we think the organization will turn their fortune around with a sweep of the top 10 at Richmond. With 14/1 odds to win the championship, Bowman is hardly favored, but he should be able to make the Round of 8.
Projected to Advance to Round 2
Kurt Busch (1 win / 3 stage wins / 2,052 points)
PointsBet Championship Odds: +3300
Power Ranking: 5 (10.61)
Points’ Standings: 4
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Richmond: 14.60
Bristol: 6.80
Las Vegas: 18.33
Last week we projected Busch would be one of the drivers who failed to advance from the Round of 16. A solid Darlington performance changed our minds as he now has a 26-point cushion over 13th in the standings. It is certainly possible to lose an average of 13 points over the next two weeks, but Busch had a top-five capable car in the Southern 500 and should be able to control his fate at Richmond with its multiple grooves.
Kyle Busch (2 wins / 5 stage wins / 2,024 points)
PointsBet Championship Odds: +1200
Power Ranking: 7 (11.80)
Points’ Standings: 14
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Richmond: 5.00
Bristol: 6.20
Las Vegas: 6.40
Busch is not a driver who responds well to pressure. For an example, queue up the video of his reckless entry into the garage after last week’s accident at Darlington – an incident that has left him $50k poorer than he was yesterday. NASCAR fined him according to rule 12.5.2.5.a that provides a penalty for “any violations deemed to compromise the safety of an event or otherwise pose a dangerous risk to the safety of competitors, officials, spectators, or others are treated with the highest degree of seriousness.” His frustration could bleed over, but it’s far more likely that this will galvanize the team just enough to advance out of the Round of 16.
Kevin Harvick (0 wins / 0 stage wins / 2,046 points)
PointsBet Championship Odds: +2000
Power Ranking: 8 (11.96)
Points’ Standings: 7
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Richmond: 8.80
Bristol: 14.80
Las Vegas: 13.83
Harvick spent the majority of the Southern 500 in the top five, but that is a track on which he has dominated in the recent past. He hasn’t been quite as strong at Richmond with no top-fives in his last three attempts. For the moment, he has to take each round separately and slowly climb the ladder. Sitting seventh in points is a step in the right direction, but the points’ gap is pretty narrow from there to the 13th-place bubble.
Christopher Bell (1 win / 0 stage wins / 2,031 points)
PointsBet Championship Odds: +8000
Power Ranking: 11 (13.72)
Points’ Standings: 12
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Richmond: 9.50
Bristol: 18.50
Las Vegas: 17.00
Bell did not get the finish he deserved last week at Darlington. He finished 20th in the field of 37 cars, but should count himself lucky that one of the incidents he was involved in did not send him out of the race. He’s in his first playoff and not many drivers advance out of the Round of 16 in those circumstances, but Bell is good enough to defy the odds.
Projected to Fail to Advance to Round 2
Brad Keselowski (1 win / 2 stage wins / 2,038 points)
PointsBet Championship Odds: +2000
Power Ranking: 22 (19.11)
Points’ Standings: 8
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Richmond: 7.00
Bristol: 14.40
Las Vegas: 7.00
Keselowski moved up in the points last week, but that was largely a factor of incidents affecting several of the drivers ranked above him. He cannot count on that happening each and every week. If Keselowski cannot drive into the top 10 in the next two races, he won’t advance unless he gets more help from the competition.
Tyler Reddick (0 wins / 3 stage wins / 2,026 points)
PointsBet Championship Odds: +8000
Power Ranking: 9 (12.19)
Points’ Standings: 12
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Richmond: 15.50
Bristol: 20.00
Las Vegas: 18.33
If you are a Reddick fan, there are a couple of reasons you might disregard our prediction. Reddick’s position among the Power Rankings top 10 this week is no anomaly and he is clearly strong enough to maintain his 12th-place in the points. The difficulty in predicting he will advance to the next round comes in who is chasing him – notably Ky. Busch, Bowman, and Byron. At least one of these drivers will get around him in the standings and Reddick will need to rely on another driver falling back.
Aric Almirola (1 win / 0 stage wins / 2,039 points)
PointsBet Championship Odds: +7000
Power Ranking: 25 (20.23)
Points’ Standings: 11
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Richmond: 11.60
Bristol: 26.20
Las Vegas: 21.33
The good news for Almirola is that there are some similarities between Richmond and New Hampshire Motor Speedway, where he won and punched his playoff ticket. In addition to being a handling track, this course requires a lot of horsepower, and that has eluded Stewart-Haas Racing for much of the season.
Michael McDowell (1 win / 0 stage wins / 2,006 points)
PointsBet Championship Odds: +20000
Power Ranking: 30 (26.08)
Points’ Standings: 16
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Richmond: 26.60
Bristol: 25.20
Las Vegas: 26.17
No one expected McDowell to clear the Round of 16, but it was disappointing nonetheless to see him retire so early with an unforced error. Still, this team has accomplished a lot in 2021 and should be lauded for that instead of pilloried for being the last-place playoff contender.
Power | Power | | | Points | Points | PointsBet | Driver | Wins | Stage | | | Richmond | Bristol | Las |
Projected to make the finals | ||||||||||||
1 | 5.44 | | | 1 | 2106 | +225 | 5 | 13 | | | 17.00 | 9.00 | 6.33 | |
2 | 5.87 | | | 2 | 2072 | +475 | 1 | 6 | | | 7.60 | 11.60 | 4.67 | |
3 | 6.40 | | | 10 | 2030 | +900 | 2 | 3 | | | 9.80 | 9.60 | 26.00 | |
6 | 10.93 | | | 3 | 2062 | +800 | 3 | 5 | | | 2.40 | 20.80 | 8.83 | |
Projected to make round 3 | ||||||||||||
4 | 7.93 | | | 5 | 2048 | +1200 | 3 | 4 | | | 18.20 | 14.80 | 9.17 | |
12 | 13.74 | | | 15 | 2017 | +2000 | 1 | 3 | | | 17.00 | 21.20 | 19.17 | |
14 | 14.32 | | | 6 | 2047 | +1400 | 1 | 5 | | | 6.60 | 11.00 | 13.50 | |
18 | 17.24 | | | 13 | 2026 | +1400 | 3 | 0 | | | 12.40 | 19.80 | 13.50 | |
Projected to make round 2 | ||||||||||||
5 | 10.61 | | | 4 | 2052 | +3300 | 1 | 3 | | | 14.60 | 6.80 | 18.33 | |
7 | 11.80 | | | 14 | 2024 | +1200 | 2 | 5 | | | 5.00 | 6.20 | 6.40 | |
8 | 11.96 | | | 7 | 2046 | +2000 | 0 | 0 | | | 8.80 | 14.80 | 13.83 | |
9 | 12.19 | | | 12 | 2026 | +8000 | 0 | 3 | | | 15.50 | 20.00 | 18.33 | |
Projected to fail to advance to Round 2 | ||||||||||||
11 | 13.72 | | | 9 | 2031 | +3300 | 1 | 0 | | | 9.50 | 18.50 | 17.00 | |
22 | 19.11 | | | 8 | 2038 | +2000 | 1 | 2 | | | 7.00 | 14.40 | 7.00 | |
25 | 20.23 | | | 11 | 2039 | +7000 | 1 | 0 | | | 11.60 | 26.20 | 21.33 | |
30 | 26.08 | | | 16 | 2006 | +20000 | 1 | 0 | | | 26.60 | 25.20 | 26.17 |
A note about the three-year stats: The three-year average finish is a script that looks at the last 1,116 days—to provide for minor changes in the schedule. Since some races shift dates more than a week or two, the past three years race total occasionally varies. It is a consistent snapshot, however.
A note about the Power Average: The Fantasy Power Rankings formula includes finishing results this season (all season) as well as various “strength-based” intangibles such as Laps in the top five, 10, and 15, average running position, speed in traffic, and quality passes (passing a car while in the top 15) expressed as if they were finishing results. The lower the number, the stronger the driver.
Power Rankings After Darlington 2
Chasing Darlington
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