Three weeks ago NASCAR visited their first similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track with the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. This week kicks off a three-race streak of races on this course type. There are two agendas on which fantasy players should be focused. It’s important to win each week, but in allocation management games it can be very tempting to exhaust the marquee drivers and these rankings should be used as a guideline for the next three weeks.
The following ranking is approximately where we expect the drivers to finish. So far this year, 30 percent of our picks have finished within three spots of our prediction. If one discounts Daytona because of the nature of that track, the number rises to 35%. Another 10% have finished within five spots of actual.
Next week’s rankings at Homestead and those for Texas probably won’t look a whole lot different than Atlanta. And players need to look closely at those drivers ranked just inside and outside the top 10 to search for hidden gems. Once the weekend activities begin, those drivers should be on a watch list for practice and qualification.
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1. Brad Keselowski
After getting shuffled to 10th last week in Phoenix, Keselowski is determined to come back with a vengeance. He’s won two of the last three Atlanta races and finished second in the other.
2. Kevin Harvick
Harvick won the 2018 edition of this race and finished fourth last year. In his last 13 attempts, he has scored 11 top-10s and rarely misses the mark.
3. Joey Logano
Logano has not scored a top-five at Atlanta since 2015, but he’s come close with sixth-place finishes in two of his last three starts there.
4. Chase Elliott
With only one top-five in four previous starts, Atlanta has not always been Elliott’s top track. He’s been outside the top 10 only once, however, and has a lot of momentum on his side this week.
5. Kyle Busch
Busch has not been perfect on 1.5-mile tracks recently; he finished 15th at Vegas. But 72.2% of his last 18 races on the track type ended among the top 10 with 50% in the top five.
6. Alex Bowman
Bowman has a perfect record of top-20 finishes on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks in the past two years with his Chicagoland win last summer acting as the high water mark.
7. Aric Almirola
It seems that Almirola is back in top-10 form after his second consecutive eighth-place finish at Phoenix. Last year he was eighth at Atlanta as well.
8. Kurt Busch
Busch could be a pleasant surprise this week. He’s coming off back-to-back top-10s in the past two weeks and has a current four-race streak of top-10s at Atlanta.
9. Ryan Blaney
It’s hard to know whether to handicap Blaney based on where he should have finished in the first four weeks or where Fate has relegated him. He’ll be fast at Atlanta, but it’s hard to predict where he’ll finish.
10. Martin Truex Jr.
When Truex rebounds he is going to immediately contend for top-fives. It’s just hard to know when the mistakes and misfortunes are going to end.
11. Jimmie Johnson
It would seem that Johnson has his second wind during his retirement tour. He’s finished 12th or better in the last three races with a best of fifth on the similarly-configured Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
12. Matt DiBenedetto
The No. 21 is becoming a regular fixture among the top 15 and there is no reason to think DiBenedetto is going to cool off anytime soon.
13. Kyle Larson
Larson was uneven on 1.5-milers last year. More than half his starts ended outside the top 10, but nearly all - including his 12th at Atlanta - were in the top 15.
14. Chris Buescher
Buescher had some of his best results on this course type last year in equipment that was not quite as strong as what he’ll wheel at Atlanta.
15. Erik Jones
Jones has never finished outside the top 15 at Atlanta. Last year he scored his first top-10 there with a seventh-place finish.
16. Denny Hamlin
After wrecking the competition in back-to-back races, it is hard to believe Hamlin is not trying just a little too hard and outdriving his potential.
17. Clint Bowyer
A switch flipped for Bowyer once he joined Stewart-Haas Racing. He’s never finished worse than 11th on this track with that team and has back-to-back top-fives in 2018 and 2019.
18. Cole Custer
In three races on unrestricted tracks, Custer has a sweep of the top 20. Last week in Phoenix, he scored his first top-10. Many more will follow, but it will be hard to predict exactly when.
19. William Byron
In two previous starts at Atlanta, Byron finished 18th in 2018 and 17th in 2019. With the way Hendrick Motorsports has been running lately, it’s not out of the question that he could earn a top-15 this week.
20. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Last year with Roush, Stenhouse earned five top-10s and two 16th-place results. JTG-Daugherty Racing was just as strong on this track type, so Stenhouse bears watching.
21. Tyler Reddick
Reddick was easily the strongest rookie last week before he suffered a tire failure. This week he heads to a track type where he is even more comfortable.
22. Austin Dillon
Dillon has not yet scored a top-10 at Atlanta, but he came close in 2016 with an 11th and 2018 with a 14th. This is another even year and it could produce another top 15, but his recent record does not support that.
23. JH Nemechek
If one discounts his 11th-place finish at Daytona because of the wild card nature of that track, Nemechek has always finished between 21st and 27th.
24. Ty Dillon
Dillon’s 10th-place finish at Vegas three weeks ago was a shot in the arm this team needed, but fantasy owners should not lose sight of the fact that his average finish on 1.5-milers last year was 24.3.
25. Michael McDowell
For the moment disregard McDowell’s 36th-place finish at Vegas and concentrate on the eight races from Kansas 1 through Homestead in which he finished in the 20s.
26. Ross Chastain
It is taking a while for Chastain to mesh with this team and until he does, his results will resemble what he produced last year with Premium Motorsports rathet than what Newman did at Roush.
27. Bubba Wallace
Nine of Wallace’s 11 attempts on 1.5-mile tracks last year ended somewhere in the 20s. That kind of consistency tends to put drivers in a place where they can capitalize on strategy like he did three weeks ago at Vegas.
28. Ryan Preece
There have been some highs and lows, but Preece mostly finishes in the mid-20s on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks. Last year Atlanta was one of his lows, however, with a 35th-place finish.
29. Daniel Suarez
The No. 96 team is going to slowly and steadily improve as the season progresses. Suarez almost earned his first top-20 with the team at Phoenix; he was 21st.
30. Corey LaJoie
LaJoie was one of the most pleasant surprises at Vegas three weeks ago with his 16th-place finish, but he was on the high side of the 20 in his last two attempts.
31. Christopher Bell
Through the first four races of his rookie season, we expected at least one top-15, but Bell has not yet cracked the top 20.
32. JJ Yeley
Last week Yeley finished on the lead lap on an unrestricted oval for the first time in a year and he recorded a 26th-place finish in the FanShield 500k.
33. Brennan Poole
After leaving Daytona, Poole has been consistent with results of 29th through 32nd in his last three races. His 29th came on the similarly-configured track in Vegas.
34. Quin Houff
In the past two seasons, Houff has scored one top-30 on the 1.5-mile tracks. That came in the Coke 600 that featured a lot of attrition, however, and his average is about 33rd.
35. Reed Sorenson
In his last nine starts on the 1.5-milers, Sorenson has finished in the 30s each time. His best effort was a 30th in last year’s Coke 600.
36. Garrett Smithley
Smithley raced five times on 1.5-milers last year and was at Vegas three weeks ago. In that span of races, he has an average finish of 34.67.
37. Joey Gase
Gase deserves some attention this week. His 31st-place finish in the Pennzoil 400 is his best 1.5-mile finish in his last seven attempts.
38. Timmy Hill
Hill was the first driver to retire at Vegas three weeks ago. He’s been one of the first men out in most of the 1.5-mile tracks in the past two seasons.
Atlanta Coverage
Power Rankings After Phoenix 1
Four to Watch at Atlanta: Clint Bowyer
Four to Watch at Atlanta: Kurt Busch
