This week’s race: Bank of America 500
Traditional Name: National 500
Other Notable Names: UAW-GM Quality 500, Mello Yello 500, Oakwood Homes 500, Oakwood Homes 500
Drivers get to run home town races only a few times a year. Typically, they get that added boost of support on the track that is closest to the place of their birth, but all of them call the Queen City and its environs their adopted home while competing in the Cup series. The entire field wants to run well at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The grandstands are filled not only with fans, but also friends and family.
Teams put just a little extra effort into going fast on this track. Dark horses occasionally pepper the top 10—like Marcos Ambrose in 2013 or AJ Allmendinger in 2011—but a quick glance at the drivers in this week’s list of the best at Charlotte underscores just how much skill goes into getting the setup right for this track. The top 10 is filled with the current Chase contenders. Clint Bowyer is the only driver not competing for the NASCAR Sprint Cup that is counted among that group.
NASCAR has been visiting this track since it first opened in 1960. Along with the all-star race and countless opportunities for Cup regulars to interlope into the Nationwide or Camping World Truck Series, the best drivers in the field have ample opportunities to find a rhythm on this high banked, 1.5-mile oval and that occasionally turns into some long streaks. Denny Hamlin entered this spring’s Coke 600 with a seven-race, top-10 streak that he failed to keep alive. Kyle Busch has finished ninth or better in 12 of his last 14 races, while Kevin Harvick has finished that well in seven of his last eight attempts.
This is not a week for fantasy owners to gamble on dark horses; that opportunity will arise soon enough with next week’s lottery-style Geico 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.
One trend that is worthy of note is the relative calm at the end of recent Charlotte races. This spring, Alex Bowman brought out the final yellow flag with 20 laps remaining, but that was a single car spin. In 2012 and 2013, debris brought out the final caution each time with an average green flag run of 58 laps.
Kyle Larson keeps getting closer and closer to winning his first race. If he manages to do so at Charlotte, he is almost insured to have a storied NASCAR career because other first time winners at this track include the greatest drivers in the sport: David Pearson, Buddy Baker, Jeff Gordon, and Matt Kenseth.
10 best drivers at Charlotte
Over the past six races, these drivers have the best average finish.
1. Kasey Kahne
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 5.17
Career avg. finish: 11.5 in 21 attempts
Once Kahne cleared the Challenger 16 hurdle to advance into the Contender round of the playoffs, it seemed possible he would have an easy path to the Eliminator. Kansas Speedway was one of his best tracks in recent seasons and so was Charlotte, but he pushed a little too hard on a restart last week and slapped the wall. The two drivers listed above him in last week’s Statistically Speaking column also suffered problems when Jimmie Johnson crashed and Kenseth failed to crack the top 10, so being seeded number one in this column might not be such a good thing.
2. Kevin Harvick
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 6.50
Career avg. finish: 16.3 in 27 attempts
One reason Harvick might have played it safe last week when he erroneously believed he had a tire going flat was that he had some confidence that Charlotte would be a good track for him. It was not always one of his best courses because after sweeping the top 10 in his rookie season, he scored only one more in his next 17 attempts. That ended in an eighth-place finish in the 2010 edition of this race and he has been almost perfect since. His two career victories came in the 2011 and 2013 Coke 600s.
3. Carl Edwards
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 7.33
Career avg. finish: 12.7 in 20 attempts
While Charlotte is prone to sweeps, achieving and maintaining top-10s streaks are difficult. Edwards comes close with a worst effort of 11th in his last six starts, but this is not his best track by a wide margin. With a career average finish of 12.7 in 20 attempts, it ranks 10th on his personal list and one reason for that is he rarely finishes in the top five. In fact, he has only two such finishes in his last 10 races on this track.
4. Matt Kenseth
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 7.67
Career avg. finish: 13.5 in 30 attempts
During his career, Kenseth was the king of consistency and Charlotte reflects that character trait. He is riding a current 11-race, top-15 streak; his last two efforts ended in third-place finishes, and he would be highly favored to finish in the top 10 this week if not for his lack of consistency in 2014. In his last 18 races—a rolling half-season—he has earned only nine top-10s, which is not up to his usual standards.
5. Denny Hamlin
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 8.00
Career avg. finish: 13.7 in 18 attempts
Hamlin has not earned consecutive top-10s since he finished third at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and ninth at Pocono Raceway. Since Watkins Glen International, each of his strong runs have been separated by at least one result outside the top 15, but the pattern is starting to soften. He came close to cracking that magic barrier at Dover International Speedway with a 12th and benefitted from the high attrition last week at Kansas. With one of the best six-race averages at Charlotte, he could be poised to score another this week.
6. Kyle Busch
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 10.33
Career avg. finish: 15.6 in 21 attempts
Busch is not lacking in confidence at Charlotte. In 58 starts there in NASCAR Cup, Nationwide, Truck, and Exhibition races, he has 13 victories and another 20 top-fives. Ultimately it is the senior series that matters most, however, and he has failed to win in Cup competition, even though he has dominated the top five in the past seven years. Busch can also be extremely volatile on this track and the two races in the past 14 attempts that ended outside the top-10 did so because of crash damage.
7. Ryan Newman
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 12.17
Career avg. finish: 19.0 in 27 attempts
As on most tracks, Newman obtains his place among the top 10 based on consistency rather than raw strength. In his last six races at Charlotte, his best finish was a sixth in the 2013 Coke 600 and his worst was a 20th in the 2012 Bank of America 500. Statistically one other thing would seem certain this week and that is he will finish worse than he starts because he has advanced in only four of 27 races. However, three of his improvements came in the last five races at Charlotte.
8. Clint Bowyer
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 12.33
Career avg. finish: 15.6 in 17 attempts
Bowyer is due a strong run, but it seems increasingly unlikely that it is going to come on a similarly-configured, 1.5-mile course. In eight races on this track type in 2014, he has scored only one top-15. His eighth-place result in the Duck Commander 500 was insufficient to raise his average to 23rd and last week’s 18th on his home track of Kansas did nothing to make fantasy owners want to take a risk on the No. 15.
9. Jimmie Johnson
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 12.50
Career avg. finish: 11.2 in 26 attempts
After winning five consecutive championships from 2006 through 2010, Johnson’s gradual decline actually began in 2011 and the first cracks in his armor appeared at Charlotte. He blew an engine in the Coke 600 that year and crashed in the fall. He should have rebounded in spring 2012 but a penalty dropped him outside of the top 10 in the 600. Crash damage sent him five laps off the pace in last year’s edition of that same race, so his victory this May was sweet. Now he is in a position where he has to win and fantasy players will see just how much strength he actually has.
10. Joey Logano (tied with Keselowski)
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 13.17
Career avg. finish: 10.5 in 11 attempts
The only stats that really matter for Logano are what he has recorded with Penske Racing. In three attempts, he finished fifth, 18th, and 12th. That hardly makes him one of the drivers favored to win this week, but after grabbing last week’s Hollywood Casino 400 trophy he does not really need to. Logano has been one of the best values on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks all season, however, and there is no reason to believe he will not finish at least in the top 10.
10. Brad Keselowski (tied with Logano)
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 13.17
Career avg. finish: 15.7 in 10 attempts
If Keselowski was gambling with tire pressures or camber last week at Kansas, it was because he knew Talladega was looming. The “Big One” crash still lurks around the corner and this team needs to win as badly as Johnson. It is fitting that those two drivers have the two most recent Charlotte victories; Kez’s came in last year’s edition of this race after starting deep in the field in 23rd.
Others of Note
14. Jeff Gordon
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 15.83
Career avg. finish: 15.8 in 43 attempts
Gordon’s recent record at Charlotte would not seem as sinister if not for his struggles last week at Kansas. After losing track position early in the Hollywood Casino 400 he was simply unable to get his car to work in traffic. The same thing could happen this week, or he could suffer crash damage like he did in 2011 and 2013, or sustain a penalty like he did in 2012 that cost him two laps. He cannot feel overly confident in his back-to-back seventh-place finishes last fall and this spring.
20. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 19.60 (5 starts)
Career avg. finish: 19.4 in 29 attempts
As one of the three marquee drivers to crash in last week’s Hollywood Casino 400, Earnhardt needs a victory just as badly as Johnson or Keselowski. He is the least likely of the three to earn it, however, because his last top-five at Charlotte came all the way back in 2008 in his first attempt with Hendrick Motorsports.
25. Trevor Bayne
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 22.60 (5 starts)
Career avg. finish: 22.6 in 5 attempts
Bayne will get a head start on his Roush-Fenway Racing career this week when the organization takes the No. 6 out of mothballs and puts a fresh engine under the hood. In five previous starts with the Wood Bros., his best finish was a 16th in the 2013 Coke 600, but even then he failed to complete the full distance. In fact, Bayne has never finished on the lead lap at Charlotte, even though he has been running at the end of every event he started.
Three-year average finish | |||
Rank | Driver | 3 Yr Avg Fin | Attempts |
1. | 5.17 | 6 | |
2. | 6.50 | 6 | |
3. | 7.33 | 6 | |
4. | 7.67 | 6 | |
5. | 8.00 | 6 | |
6. | 10.33 | 6 | |
7. | 12.17 | 6 | |
8. | 12.33 | 6 | |
9. | 12.50 | 6 | |
10. | 13.17 | 6 | |
10. | 13.17 | 6 | |
12. | 13.20 | 5 | |
13. | 15.17 | 6 | |
14. | 15.83 | 6 | |
15. | 16.83 | 6 | |
16. | 17.00 | 3 | |
17. | 17.33 | 6 | |
18. | 18.00 | 6 | |
19. | 19.00 | 5 | |
20. | 19.60 | 5 | |
21. | 19.67 | 6 | |
22. | 21.00 | 6 | |
23. | 21.75 | 4 | |
24. | 22.00 | 4 | |
25. | 22.60 | 5 | |
26. | 26.83 | 6 | |
27. | 27.50 | 2 | |
28. | 27.67 | 6 | |
29. | 29.50 | 6 | |
29. | 29.50 | 4 | |
31. | 29.67 | 6 | |
32. | 33.00 | 3 | |
33. | 33.80 | 5 | |
34. | 36.33 | 6 | |
35. | 37.00 | 4 | |
36. | 37.50 | 6 | |
36. | JJ Yeley | 37.50 | 6 |
36. | 37.50 | 4 | |
39. | 39.25 | 4 | |
40. | 40.33 | 6 | |
40. | 40.33 | 6 | |
42. | 41.50 | 2 | |
Exercise Caution
Most caution flags: 22, 2005 Coca-Cola 600
Fewest caution flags: 1, 1962 National 400
Average number of caution flags per race: 7.2
Final Caution, last five races:
May 2014: 380 of 400: 1-car accident in turn 3 (Alex Bowman)
October 2013: 308 of 334: debris
May 2013: 386 of 400: debris
October 2012: 224 of 334: debris
May 2013: 320 of 400: debris
Most caution laps: 113, 1980 World 600
Fewest caution laps: 6, 1962 National 400
Average number of caution laps per race: 43.4
Leading the way
Most leaders: 21, 2005 Coca-Cola 600
Fewest leaders: 4 (5 times), 1993 Mello Yello 500, 1991 Mello Yello 500, 1972 World 600, 1964 National 400, 1962 National 400
Average number of leaders: 9.5
Most lead changes: 54, 1979 World 600
Fewest lead changes: 8, 1960 National 400
Average number of lead changes: 24.1
Victory Lane
Last five winners at Charlotte (starting position):
May 2014: Jimmie Johnson (1)
October 2013: Brad Keselowski (23)
May 2013: Kevin Harvick (15)
October 2012: Clint Bowyer (4)
May 2013: Kasey Kahne (7)
Worst starting position for race winner: 37th, Jimmie Johnson: Coke 600 (shortened to 414 miles by rain)
A race at Charlotte has been won by the pole sitter 15 times and from the front row 33 times in 109 races.
Races won from the pole:
May 2014: Jimmie Johnson, Coca-Cola 600
October 2009: Jimmie Johnson, NASCAR Banking 500
May 2004: Jimmie Johnson, Coca-Cola 600
May 1998: Jeff Gordon, Coca-Cola 600
May 1997: Jeff Gordon, Coca-Cola 600
May 1994: Jeff Gordon, Coca-Cola 600
October 1982: Harry Gant, National 500
October 1981: Darrell Waltrip, National 500
May 1976: David Pearson, World 600
October 1974: David Pearson, National 500
May 1974: David Pearson, World 600
May 1973: Buddy Baker, World 600
October 1968: Charlie Glotzbach, National 500
October 1965: Fred Lorenzen, National 400
May 1965: Fred Lorenzen, World 600 (inaugural race)
Active winners at Charlotte
Jimmie Johnson: 7
Jeff Gordon: 5
Kasey Kahne: 4
Kevin Harvick: 2
Matt Kenseth: 2
Jamie McMurray: 2
Clint Bowyer: 1
Kurt Busch: 1
Brad Keselowski: 1
Casey Mears: 1
Tony Stewart: 1
First time winners at Charlotte:
David Reutimann, 2009 Coca-Cola 600
Casey Mears, 2007 Coca-Cola 600
Jamie McMurray, 2002 UAW-GM Quality 500
Matt Kenseth, 2000 Coca-Cola 600
Bobby Labonte, 1995 Coca-Cola 600
Jeff Gordon, 1994 Coca-Cola 600
Charlie Glotzbach, 1968 National 500
Buddy Baker, 1967 National 500
David Pearson, 1961 World 600
Running at the End
The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Charlotte race they started:
Martin Truex Jr. (18)
Clint Bowyer (17)
Joey Logano (11)
Trevor Bayne (5)
Justin Allgaier (1)
Michael Annett (1)
Alex Bowman (1)
Austin Dillon (1)
Timmy Hill failed to finish his first race in 2012, but has been running at the end of the last two.
Danica Patrick had a three-race streak of running at the end snapped this spring when she blew an engine on lap 281.
Great Starts
Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:
Jamie McMurray: first (2002)
Kevin Harvick: second (2001)
Jeff Gordon: second (1993)
Tony Stewart: fourth (1999)
Martin Truex Jr.: seventh (1995)
Denny Hamlin: eighth (2005)
Joey Logano: ninth (2009)
Reed Sorenson: 10th (2006)
Aric Almirola won the pole in his first race in 2012, but finished only 16th in the Coke 600.
