This week’s race: Quaker State 400 by Advance Auto Parts
Traditional Name: Kentucky 400
Other Notable Names: None
Kentucky Speedway will host only its fifth Cup race this week, so drivers’ notebooks are pretty thin. To complicate matters, NASCAR introduced a new aerodynamic package for this race designed to minimize down force and make the cars more difficult to drive.
A practice session was planned for Wednesday, but it was rained out. Two long practice sessions were scheduled for Friday morning, but with weather in the area they were combined to one long one. Unfortunately Mother Nature would not cooperate again and the session was shortened to less than one full hour.
They got back on track in afternoon, but the bottom line is that no one knows what they have this week and they are going to need to figure it out while the race is on the line Saturday night.
10 best drivers at Kentucky
Over the past three races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track.1. Matt Kenseth
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 4.00
Career avg. finish: 4.5 in 4 attempts
Kenseth was not happy with his car on Friday in practice, but he posted a top-10 lap in the final session. Starting 16th this week, he is in the same range as when he swept the top 10 in his first four starts.
2. Kyle Busch
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 5.67
Career avg. finish: 4.5 in 4 attempts
If Busch did not already have one victory to his credit, we would be saying this was a great place to get it. For the moment, he needs to concentrate on staying out of trouble to record a solid top-five like he has done in three of his four Kentucky starts.
3. Jeff Gordon
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 6.33
Career avg. finish: 7.3 in 4 attempts
Kentucky is the only track on which Gordon has competed in the NASCAR Sprint Cup and failed to win. He has only one more opportunity to change that, but with his inability to restart and races’ propensity for carnage late in the evening, he probably will not tick this off his bucket list.
4. Kasey Kahne
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 7.00
Career avg. finish: 8.5 in 4 attempts
This is shaping up to be a Hendrick Motorsports track with all four of their drivers lined up from third to sixth on the three-year average chart. Gordon is iffy because of his inability to restart, while Johnson and Earnhardt are expensive in salary cap games. That leaves Kahne as this week’s best value.
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 7.00
Career avg. finish: 12.8 in 4 attempts
Earnhardt is the only driver entered this weekend who has scored a perfect record of top-fives on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks this year. His Kentucky record suggests he can keep that streak alive, but he was not very happy in Friday’s rain-plagued practice sessions.
6. Jimmie Johnson
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 8.33
Career avg. finish: 7.0 in 4 attempts
Drivers have to push the limit to find it. Johnson tapped the wall early in the second practice session for the Quaker State 400 and did a little damage to the right rear. He will dial back now and aim to keep his current streak of perfect top-10s intact.
7. Kevin Harvick
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 9.33
Career avg. finish: 11.0 in 4 attempts
Kentucky will be another test for Harvick and the No. 4 team. He does not have a particularly good record on this track and the team’s practices were not stellar. The good news is that the driver has gotten progressively stronger with each passing race on this track and finished seventh last year.
8. Martin Truex Jr.
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 11.33
Career avg. finish: 13.0 in 4 attempts
Truex does not have a perfect record at Kentucky, but he has something better and that is a streak of five top-10s in five races on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks this year. After crashing in back-to-back events for the first time since 2011, he is ready to put his Sonoma and Daytona hardships in the No. 78’s rearview mirror.
9. Brad Keselowski
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 11.67
Career avg. finish: 10.5 in 4 attempts
Keselowski won two of the last three races on this track, but crash damage in the 2013 Quaker State 400 sent him to the showers in 33rd. That is the only result keeping him from joining a long list of drivers with top-10 streaks, but he should be able to restart his string with a solid run Saturday night.
9. Joey Logano
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 11.67
Career avg. finish: 10.5 in 4 attempts
Logano started the 2015 season with three top-fives and another top-10 in the first four similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track races. He got pushed to 13th at Charlotte when several racers gambled on fuel, but he was near the top of the leaderboard in both of Friday’s practices at Kentucky and should be able to rebound nicely.
Others of Note
11. Kurt BuschLast three races average finish at Kentucky: 12.33
Career avg. finish: 11.5 in 4 attempts
Busch has not been particularly strong at Kentucky. In four starts there, he has not cracked the top five a single time and his two top-10s are insufficient to elevate him into the top 10. His record in 2015 takes precedence over any struggles on this track, however, and suggests he will finish strong Saturday night.
18. Carl Edwards
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 19.33
Career avg. finish: 15.8 in 4 attempts
Edwards is at least approaching Kentucky and the new rules’ package designed to reduce aerodynamics with the right attitude. He was quoted this week as saying it is a step in the right direction and puts control back in the driver’s hands. Now we need to wait and see what he does with that control.
20. Tony Stewart
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 21.00
Career avg. finish: 18.8 in 4 attempts
An 11th-place finish last year and a 12th in the inaugural event in 2011 define Stewart’s high water mark for this week’s Quaker State 400 by Advance Auto Parts. His record on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks this year is 29.4 and he should count a top-25 as a success.
23. Greg Biffle
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 23.00
Career avg. finish: 22.5 in 4 attempts
Biffle finished outside the top 20 in his first three Kentucky attempts; last year, he finally managed to crack the top 15, but only by the narrowest of margins. His 14th-place finish in that race was only the second time in his career that he finished on the lead lap on this similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track.
24. Denny Hamlin
Last three races average finish at Kentucky: 28.67
Career avg. finish: 22.5 in 4 attempts
Hamlin would be much higher on this list if not for back-to-back accidents in 2013/2014. He made it to the lap-147 mark two years ago, but only completed 27 last year and those terrible results have taken a huge toll on his average finish and probably damaged his confidence.
Rank | Driver | 3 Yr. Avg. Fin | Attempts |
1. | 4.00 | 3 | |
2. | 5.67 | 3 | |
3. | 6.33 | 3 | |
4. | 7.00 | 3 | |
5. | 7.00 | 3 | |
6. | 8.33 | 3 | |
7. | 9.33 | 3 | |
8. | 11.33 | 3 | |
9. | 11.67 | 3 | |
10. | 11.67 | 3 | |
| |||
11. | 12.33 | 3 | |
12. | 14.00 | 3 | |
13. | 17.00 | 3 | |
14. | 17.67 | 3 | |
15. | 18.00 | 3 | |
16. | 18.67 | 3 | |
17. | 19.00 | 3 | |
18. | 19.33 | 3 | |
19. | 20.00 | 2 | |
20. | 21.00 | 3 | |
20. | 21.00 | 2 | |
22. | 22.00 | 2 | |
23. | 23.00 | 3 | |
24. | 26.67 | 3 | |
24. | 26.67 | 3 | |
26. | 28.67 | 3 | |
26. | 28.67 | 3 | |
28. | 31.00 | 3 | |
28. | 31.00 | 3 | |
30. | 35.00 | 3 | |
31. | JJ Yeley | 38.00 | 2 |
31. | 38.00 | 2 | |
33. | 41.33 | 3 | |
Exercise Caution
Most caution flags: 10, 2013 Quaker State 400 by Advance Auto PartsFewest caution flags: 4, 2012 Quaker State 400
Average number of caution flags per race: 6.5
Final Caution, last five races:
June 2014: Lap 215 of 267: 1-car accident in turn 1: (Aric Almirola)
June 2013: Lap 248 of 217: 1-car spin in turn 2: (Jimmie Johnson)
June 2012: Lap 210 of 267: 2-car accident in turn 2: (Ryan Newman and Regan Smith)
July 2011: Lap 263 of 267: 1-car accident in turn 2: (Clint Bowyer)
Most caution laps: 42, 2013 Quaker State 400 by Advance Auto Parts
Fewest caution laps: 24, 2012 Quaker State 400
Average number of caution laps per race: 33.0
Leading the way
Most leaders: 12, 2011 Quaker State 400Fewest leaders: 3, 2014 Quaker State 400 by Advance Auto Parts
Average number of leaders: 6.8
Most lead changes: 20, 2011 Quaker State 400
Fewest lead changes: 11, 2013 Quaker State 400 by Advance Auto Parts
Average number of lead changes: 15.0
Victory Lane
Last four winners (starting position):June 2014: Brad Keselowski (first)
June 2013: Matt Kenseth (16th)
June 2012: Brad Keselowski (eighth)
July 2011: Kyle Busch (first)
Worst starting position for race winner: 16th, Matt Kenseth: 2013 Quaker State 400
A race at Kentucky has been won by the pole sitter 2 times and from the front row 2 times in 4 races.
Active winners at Kentucky:
Brad Keselowski: 2
Kyle Busch: 1
Matt Kenseth: 1
Top 10 on all similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks all time:
Jimmie Johnson: 26
Jeff Gordon: 24
Dale Earnhardt: 23
David Pearson: 18
Bobby Allison: 16
Tony Stewart: 15
Cale Yarborough: 15
Richard Petty: 14
Darrell Waltrip: 14
Matt Kenseth: 13
Bill Elliott: 13
Recent races won from the pole:
Brad Keselowski, 2014 Quaker State 400
Kyle Busch, 2011 Quaker State 400*
* Lineup set by NASCAR’s rule book
First time winners at Kentucky:
None: Brad Keselowski, 2012 Quaker State 400 earned his seventh win in this race.
Running at the End
The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Kentucky race they started:AJ Allmendinger (4)
Greg Biffle (4)
Kurt Busch (4)
Kyle Busch (4)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (4)
Carl Edwards (4)
David Gilliland (4)
Jeff Gordon (4)
Kevin Harvick (4)
Jimmie Johnson (4)
Kasey Kahne (4)
Matt Kenseth (4)
Brad Keselowski (4)
Joey Logano (4)
Casey Mears (4)
David Ragan (4)
Paul Menard (4)
Tony Stewart (4)
Martin Truex Jr. (4)
Austin Dillon (2)
Danica Patrick (2)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2)
Justin Allgaier (1)
Michael Annett (1)
Alex Bowman (1)
Cole Whitt (1)
Clint Bowyer crashed out of the first race he started in 2011, but has been running at the end of the last three.
Jamie McMurray crashed out of the first race he started in 2011, but has been running at the end of the last three.
Great Starts
Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:Kyle Busch: first (2011)
Jimmie Johnson: third (2011)
Ryan Newman: fourth (2011)
Carl Edwards: fifth (2011)
Matt Kenseth: sixth (2011)
Brad Keselowski: seventh (2011)
David Ragan: eighth (2011)
Kurt Busch: ninth (2011)
Jeff Gordon: 10th (2011)
Current Streaks
At KentuckyKyle Busch, four top-10s
Jimmie Johnson, four top-10s
Matt Kenseth, four top-10s
Jeff Gordon, four top-10s
Kevin Harvick, two top-10s
Joey Logano, two top-10s
On similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks
Dale Earnhardt Jr., five top-fives
Kevin Harvick, seven top-10s
Brad Keselowski, six top-10s
Martin Truex Jr., five top-10s
Matt Kenseth, two top-10s
Kurt Busch, two top-10s
Ryan Newman, two top-10s
In 2015
Kurt Busch, four top-fives
Kevin Harvick, two top-fives
Dale Earnhardt Jr., three top-10s
Clint Bowyer, three top-10s
Jimmie Johnson, two top-10s
Ryan Newman, two top-10s
