After a successful and chalky round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament, let’s turn our attention to the Saturday slate for the round of 32 and potential underdogs to pull the upset. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
Saint Louis vs Michigan (-12.5): O/U 161.5
Saturday starts off with an anticipated track meet between Michigan and Saint Louis. Michigan scored 50 first-half points versus Howard and 101 for the game, while Saint Louis put up 49 first-half points against Georgia and 102 for the game!
The Billikens play at the 19th-quickest tempo in the country and fourth-fastest on offense, while the Wolverines are 22nd-quickest overall and 13th on offense. Per Kenpom, Michigan owns the seventh-best offense in the nation and Saint Louis the 43rd, so everything is trending toward tons of points.
Saint Louis shoots 40.2% from three (2nd-best) and had a bit of a down game with 9-of-28 (32.1%) against Georgia. However, the Billikens recorded 27 assists and 47 rebounds in that game, purely putting on a show. No matter what the score is, Saint Louis will shoot the triple and the way to beat Michigan is to outshoot them and use the pick-and-roll, which Saint Louis is efficient in both.
One of the struggle areas for Saint Louis is allowing opponents to get the free-throw line. The Billikens allow 23.3% of opponents points to come from the free-throw line (32nd-most) and the Bulldogs had 26 attempts in the round of 64. Michigan shot 77.1% from the line in Big Ten play and scored 20% of their points from the charity stripe, so I do see free points for the Wolverines. Both squads have elite two-point and three-point defense, but I don’t think it will look like it today, especially with the anticipated tempo. I like the First Half Over 75.5 and lean the full game Over 161.5. if the first half total loses, then I will likely live bet the full game.
Pick: 1H Over 75.5 (1 unit)
Louisville vs Michigan State (-4.5): O/U 151.5
Both Louisville and Michigan State enter as top 25 teams offensively and defensively per Kenpom, plus are top 100 in rebounding and three-point shooting. This should be one of the best games of the day and after favorites went 16-0 on the ML yesterday during the round of 64, the dogs could be barking today!
The Spartans have subpar turnover rates on the season, which is unlike a Tom Izzo led team. Michigan State turns the ball over 17.1% of the time (207th) and forces a turnover 14.9% of possessions (299th). Louisville ranks below 200th in both categories and plays much quicker than Michigan State overall and offensively, which could lead to more turnovers for the Spartans, if not both teams.
Arguably the biggest area this game will be determined by is the three-point shooting. Louisville scores 40.9% of its points from three (13th-most) and Michigan State allows 37.4% of opponents points to come from deep (18th-most). That is a red flag for the Spartans who defend the triple at 32.6% (97th) .
Despite Louisville’s star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. announcing he is out with a back injury, I still think Louisville can win this game versus an overrated Michigan State team. I will take Louisville +4.5 and on the ML.
Pick: Louisville +4.5 (1 unit), Louisville ML (0.5 unit)
Texas vs Gonzaga (-6.5): O/U 147.5
Another team on upset alert is the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Gonzaga went 3-of-18 from deep (16.6%) versus Kennesaw State and shot below 50% from two-point range against the Owls during the round of 64.
The Bulldogs trailed by 7 at one point early in the game and led 33-27 at the half before pulling away late. The Bulldogs win and non-cover against Kennesaw State wasn’t impressive and it felt like Gonzaga is on upset alert for the round of 32.
Enter Texas. The Longhorns Molly Whopped the BYU Cougars in the first round, winning as +2.5 point underdogs. Texas has won two-straight games, the first four over NC State, and against BYU — both as dogs. The Longhorns shot 39-of-84 from two (46.4%) in those outings and were +21 when it came to rebounding. Texas turned the ball over nine times versus BYU and went 8-of-22 from three (36.4%) in the win.
Texas has four upperclassmen in the starting lineup, including senior guards Tramon Mark (former Houston Cougar) and Jordan Pope (former Oregon State Beaver), and sophomore center Matas Vokietaitis as the only non-senior or junior (23 points, 16 rebounds vs BYU). This is a dangerous lineup that can take advantage of Gonzaga’s poor three-point shooting (33.5%, 196th) and subpar free-throw shooting (70.5%, 255th). I like Texas +6.5 and ML.
Pick: Texas +6.5 (1 unit), Texas ML (0.5 unit)
Vanderbilt (-1.5) vs Nebraska: O/U 146.5
One of the potentially best games on the slate is located in Oklahoma City and features Vanderbilt and Nebraska for a chance to play No. 1 seed Florida or No. 9 Iowa in the Sweet 16.
The Cornhuskers are coming off a 29-point win over McNeese State, which was Nebraska first-ever NCAA Tournament win in program history! However, Vanderbilt owns a top-10 rated offense and top-30 defense, so this will be no walk in the park for Nebraska like the round of 64 was.
The Cornhuskers rank 310th in offensive rebounding percentage (26.6%) and rely on 41.3% of their points to come from three (12th-most), while shooting 35.3% from deep (102nd). The Commodores have a top-80 rated three-point defense (32.3%) and only 28.8% of their opponents points come from three (278th). If Nebraska is living and dying by the three and struggling to offensive rebound for second-chance points, then Vanderbilt should be the winner.
Both Vanderbilt and Nebraska rank top 30 in offensive turnover percentage and ranked No. 1 in their respective conferences for forcing turnovers. One of the major differences could be Vanderbilt’s free-throw shooting, which is fourth-best in the country at 79.4%. Nebraska doesn’t foul much, but they do allow 39.2% of their opponents points to come from three (6th-most in the country). If Vanderbilt gets hot from three, Nebraska could struggle. The Cornhuskers have a size advantage, but the Commodores are the more athletic team. I like Vanderbilt to win outright.
Pick: Vanderbilt ML (1 unit)
First Four Record: 1-0 +1 unit
Round of 64 Record: 12-9 +2.1 units
Futures Record: 0-1 -0.25 units
Overall Record: 13-10 +2.85 units
NCAA Tournament Future Picks
1 unit: Houston to make the Elite 8 (+110)
1 unit: Purdue to make the Elite 8 (+105)
1 unit: Iowa State to make the Elite 8 (-130)
1 unit: Virginia to make the Sweet 16 (-125)
1 unit: Arizona to win the National Championship (+380)
0.5 unit: Houston to win the National Championship (+1300)
0.5 unit: Iowa State to win the National Championship (+1800)
0.25 unit: Texas to make the Sweet 16 (+650)
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NCAA Basketball schedule!
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