Note: The order of this mock draft was derived from the inverse of Mike Clay’s pre-Draft record projections.
1. Buffalo Bills- Houston DT Ed Oliver
The Bills will still badly need a No. 1 receiver at this time next year, but 1.1 might be a tad early for A.J. Brown. It’s not too early for Oliver, who has been dominating at the collegiate level since becoming the rare five-star recruit to sign with a Group of 5 team (16.5 TFL last year despite constant double teams). Oliver is a special prospect. Had he been allowed to declare for this past draft, he would have been a top-10 pick... and maybe even a top-five pick. They don’t make them any more disruptive.
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2. Miami Dolphins- Ohio State DE Nick Bosa
The Dolphins still need help all over. If Ryan Tannehill returns to the promising pre-injury form he showed in 2016, perhaps they’ll be able to use their premium 2019 pick to continue to shore up the defense after snagging the do-everything Minkah Fitzpatrick on Thursday. In Ohio State’s loaded defensive line rotation where he didn’t play every snap, Bosa still managed 8.5 sacks and 16 TFL last year. He’s a similar prospect to his brother... and he may even turn out to be a tick better due to slightly better athleticism.
3. New York Giants- Oregon QB Justin Herbert
The Giants opted not to address the quarterback position in the 2018 NFL Draft until they popped Kyle Lauletta in Round 4. I project him as a long-term backup. They’ll get another shot to draft the quarterback of the future in 2019 if they finish as poorly as Clay projects. Pairing Herbert with Saquon Barkley sure would be fun. When Herbert got hurt last year, Oregon’s offense went into the tank, Royce Freeman went into the tank, and the program as a whole went into the tank. The kid is really, really talented. Right now, however, he’s more tools and promise than he is finished product. But with Freeman out the door, Oregon will build Mario Cristobal’s first offense around Herbert. If Herbert takes off, he’ll be a top-10 pick.
4. New York Jets- Ole Miss T Greg Little
Kudos to the Jets for acquiring their franchise quarterback in Sam Darnold. I wish they would have drafted an offensive lineman or two to keep defensive linemen out of his grill—Darnold is a great prospect, but his hitchy delivery makes it especially important to keep him clean because he needs a split second longer to release the ball. Little, a former all-world recruit, would provide for a nice long-term anchor. The 6-foot-6, 325-pounder pairs outstanding size with light feet and smooth lateral agility to mirror athletic edge rushers.
5. Arizona Cardinals- LSU CB Greedy Williams
With the quarterback position taken care of, Arizona can turn their attention elsewhere next year. They still need a No. 2 cornerback to pair with Patrick Peterson, and Williams enters the 2018 season as the 2019 class’ top corner. Peterson would no doubt be tickled to be playing across from LSU’s next great corner prospect. A tall, skinny corner (6’2/182), Williams is extremely difficult to shake in coverage due to his combination of long speed and quick-twitch agility, and he shows natural ball skills on the rare occasions that SEC quarterbacks decide to test him.
6. Washington Redskins- Georgia CB Deandre Baker
The Redskins did a nice job of plugging holes at DT and RB during the 2018 draft. They failed to address their cornerback need, and that position may be at the top of their 2019 shopping list. Baker is Williams’ top competition for CB1 honors next spring. The 5-foot-11, 180-pounder led the Bulldogs with nine pass breakups last year. The last of his three interceptions came in the title game against Alabama. Baker, who didn’t allow a single touchdown last season, briefly considered opting into the 2018 draft before deciding at the last minute to return to Athens. Good decision.
7. Oakland Raiders- LSU LB Devin White
I thought the Raiders might take a linebacker on Thursday night. They opted for Kolton Miller instead. White would look good in black and silver. He’s a game plan wrecker who went off for 133 tackles, 14 TFL, 4.5 sacks and an interception last year. I wouldn’t quite put White in Roquan Smith territory as a prospect, but he’s safely in the tier below that. White was probably the SEC’s No. 2 LB behind Smith last year. He heads into the new season as one of the country’s five-best defenders.
8. Denver Broncos- Clemson DT Dexter Lawrence
The Broncos added to their embarrassment of edge rushing riches when they took Bradley Chubb on Thursday night. You know what would make that defense front even scarier? A monster block-eater on the interior. That would be Lawrence. A behemoth freak athlete, the 6-foot-5, 340-pounder is a former five-star recruit who contributed immediately as a true freshman to Clemson’s national championship team. I think he’s a better prospect than Vita Vea.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Alabama T Jonah Williams
The Bucs addressed their defensive front last week. Now it’s time to bolster Jameis Winston’s cadre of bodyguards. Donovan Smith isn’t the answer at left tackle. Williams, who’s drawn raves from Alabama’s elite coaching staff since he stepped on campus (he started as a true freshman), is competing with Little and Washington T Trey Adams to be the first tackle off the board next April. Next year’s tackle class will be a lot better than this tackle class was -- as you’ll continue to see below.
10. Cincinnati Bengals- Washington T Trey Adams
Speaking of Trey Adams! The Bengals acquired Cordy Glenn and drafted Billy Price this offseason, but they’re not quite done fixing the offensive line. A right tackle is needed, and boy would Adams look nice out there opposite Glenn. Adams may have been a first-rounder had he declared for the draft in January, but he opted to return to the Huskies for another year of protecting Jake Browning’s blindside. The 6-foot-8, 327-pounder is huge and athletic. He’ll be blasting holes open for Myles Gaskin again this fall.
11. Cleveland Browns- Michigan DL Rashan Gary
I thought the Browns made two mistakes during the draft when the bypassed Bradley Chubb at 1.4 and then passed on Harold Landry twice at the top of the second round. Adding the freak athlete Gary to play with Myles Garrett would be all kinds of fun. The 6-foot-5, 287-pound Gary, who logged 12 TFL as part of a rotation last fall, was the No. 1 overall recruit in his class. Gary could also bulk up and move inside at the next level. With athletic tools like he has, he’ll produce wherever you want to play him.
12. Seattle Seahawks- Wisconsin T David Edwards
The Seahawks just submitted a puzzling draft in which they overdrafted a pass-blocking averse RB in Rashaad Penny and failed to bolster the beleaguered offensive line in any meaningful way. Edwards would sure help. He may not be Wisconsin’s only offensive linemen who hears his name called in Round 1 next spring (see below), but he’ll probably be the first one out of the Green Room. Lemme tell you: Jonathan Taylor will be sad to see him go.
13. Baltimore Ravens- Clemson DE Clelin Ferrell
Last year, the Ravens drafted Tim Williams and Tyus Bowser in a plan-for-the-future play with Terrell Suggs’ career winding down. The jury is still out on Williams and Bowser, so a stud edge rusher would sure be nice in next year’s first round. That’s exactly what you’re getting in Ferrell, who had a shot to go in Round 1 had he declared for the 2018 draft. A long end who effectively converts speed to power, Ferrell is going to have a huge 2018 season on Clemson’s vaunted defensive line that’s stocked with potentially four 2019 first-round picks.
14. Chicago Bears- Ole Miss WR A.J. Brown
The Bears signed Allen Robinson and drafted Anthony Miller, but with Kevin White looking like a bust, Chicago is still one stud receiver away from having a truly scary receiving corps to surround Mitch Trubisky with. If you put Brown across from Robinson and let Miller ply his trade in the slot, you’d immediately have one of the NFL’s best young receiving groups. The 6-foot-1, 225-pound Brown is a rocked-up, physical playmaker with star NFL potential. He won’t have Shea Patterson throwing him passes next year, but Jordan Ta’amu flashed in limited exposure last fall.
15. Kansas City Chiefs- Boston College DE Zach Allen
I didn’t love what the Chiefs did in last week’s draft. There’s still a big need for help on the edge. Allen would provide that. Harold Landry’s running mate also probably would have gone in Round 2 had he declared for the 2018 draft. Allen posted 15.5 TFL last year and he’s only getting better. He’ll be a first-rounder next spring if that progression continues.
16. Detroit Lions- Alabama DL Raekwon Davis
The Lions prioritized improving the running game last week, zeroing in on OL and RB early. Now it’s time to fix the defensive front. Fortunately, the 2019 draft is ludicrously deep in defensive linemen. Davis is HC Nick Saban’s next stud defensive line pupil. He’s a sight to behold on the field. Davis is listed at 6-foot-7, 306 pounds, and there’s plenty of room on that frame to add more muscle. Former Alabama C Bradley Bozeman calls Davis an “animal.” He’d know after having to go head-to-head with Davis in practice the past few years.
17. San Francisco 49ers- Kentucky LB Josh Allen
You thought you were all done with the Josh Allen-is-a-first-rounder talk, didn’t you? We’ve got another for next spring. This Josh Allen doesn’t figure to be nearly as divisive. He was always long and twitchy, but Allen has spent the past year-plus hard at work in the weight room. Previously 6-foot-5, 230 pounds, Allen was listed at 252 pounds this spring. Allen began last season like gangbusters and wore down late in 2017. The added body armor should help in that regard. San Francisco figures to spend next offseason trying to build up a championship-caliber defense.
18. Indianapolis Colts- Auburn DT Derrick Brown
Outside of Tyquan Lewis, the Colts deferred their defensive front needs for another year, instead opting to stock up on OL, LB and skill position athleticism in last week’s draft. Cool, but now it’s time to get serious about the defensive line. Brown is another one of this class’ dancing bears. Mel Kiper calls him a “rare, rare” talent, and that’s spot on. The 6-foot-5, 315-pound former five-star recruit had nine TFL last year.
19. Carolina Panthers- Wisconsin G Beau Benzschawel
The Panthers missed out on Frank Ragnow by a few slots last week and then proceeded to ignore offensive line for the rest of the draft—a surprising decision indeed. I figure that won’t be an option next year at this time. Benzschawel is shaping to be the cream of the crop in next year’s guard class, and he’d go a long way towards addressing Carolina’s crumbling interior line.
20. Tennessee Titans- Arizona State WR N’Keal Harry
The Titans receiving corps doesn’t strike fear into opponents, but if you put Harry opposite Corey Davis and let Taywan Taylor do his thing in the slot, that would change. Harry is big (6’4/214), talented (former five-star) and super-productive (73-1,000-7) line last year despite playing with a mediocre throwing QB). I think he’ll make another developmental leap this fall, which would lock him into Round 1 along with a solid pre-draft testing process.
21. Dallas Cowboys- Florida S Chauncey Gardner
The Cowboys didn’t take a safety in last week’s draft, which seems like a dubious decision. That position needs to be addressed next offseason, and it probably deserves an investment like this. The Gators have churned out a ton of NFL defensive backs in recent years. Gardner may be one of the best of them. Fast, aggressive, smart and equipped with great ball skills, Gardner has the versatility to play outside CB, slot CB or roving safety. He started last year at safety, but Florida’s new staff wants to use him as a hybrid slot CB in new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham’s attacking defense. Are you getting the same poor man’s Minkah Fitzpatrick whiffs that I am?
22. Jacksonville Jaguars- Iowa TE Noah Fant
Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a stop-gap option until the Jags can identify a long-term option at the position. Fant is an athletic freak coming out of a school that knows how to develop tight ends. Look for Fant to have his national coming out party this fall as QB Nate Stanley takes another step forward in the pocket and the offense passes a bit more with RBs Akrum Wadley and James Butler out the door.
23. Atlanta Falcons- Clemson DT Christian Wilkins
I thought that the Falcons might take a DT on Thursday night, but they opted for Calvin Ridley instead, waiting until Round 3 to pop short bull-in-a-China-shop DT Deadrin Senat. I’m a fan of Senat’s, but he would be most effectively used as part of a rotation. Pairing Wilkins with Grady Jarrett and bringing Senat off the bench would turn DT into a strength for the Falcons. It’s also worth keeping in mind that Jarrett is entering a contract year.
24. Los Angeles Chargers- Michigan QB Shea Patterson
Patterson was granted immediate eligibility from the NCAA after transferring from Ole Miss. My guess is that Wolverines fans will only be able to enjoy his work for one season. Patterson was the nation’s No. 1 quarterback recruit two years ago (top-five overall). He’s outstanding outside of structure, which is why he’s long been compared to Johnny Manziel. He’s better—and he’s being underrated right now. I consider him on the Manziel/Baker Mayfield spectrum... somewhere between the two at present. Patterson made a really smart move in transferring to Michigan. Before, he played in a spread offense with simple reads. He’ll spend next season as the general of a pro-style offense for a team that will compete for the Big 10 title and a Playoff berth.
25. Green Bay Packers- Alabama LB Anfernee Jennings
I loved what the Packers did last week in bringing in two of the draft’s three-best corners and trading for New Orleans’ 2019 first-rounder. There’s still work to do on defense, however, specifically on the edge and at linebacker. The 6-foot-3, 262-pound Jennings, a former four-star recruit, has a unique combination of dimensions and athletic ability that give him supreme versatility. Presumably, he could develop into a pure edge rusher, or an off-ball inside or outside linebacker. The Packers could make great use of a moldable prospect like that.
26. Houston Texans- Clemson T Mitch Hyatt
The Texans had very little draft capital last week after previous trades left them without a first- or second-round pick. I liked what they did with the picks left over, getting a first-round caliber prospect in S Justin Reid and a pair of guys I had rated as third-rounders (Martinas Rankin and Duke Ejiofor) later on. Now back on the clock in Round 1, Houston addresses a position that badly needs fortification: offensive tackle (I consider Rankin a guard). The Texans, according to PFF, allowed 36 more pressures than any other offensive line last year. Having Deshaun Watson back will help. Adding a top-flight OT prospect next year would help even more. Hyatt is battle tested. He was an immediate starter for Clemson who didn’t allow a single sack during the Tigers’ march to the title in 2016.
27. Pittsburgh Steelers- USC LB Porter Gustin
Bud Dupree is entering a contract year, Ryan Shazier’s career is possibly over, and the Steelers didn’t address the linebacker position in last week’s draft after they were boxed out of the class’ top four LBs in Round 1. Linebacker and edge rusher figures to be at the top of next year’s shopping list, and Gustin is sure to be a prospect they monitor this fall. To make good on his Round 1 ability, Gustin is going to need to stay healthy. The former five-star recruit started out last year like gangbusters before his season succumbed to a variety of injuries (broken toe, torn bicep, aggravations thereof, etc.). He’s an extremely gifted pass rusher when he’s healthy, smooth on the hoof with a hunter’s kill instinct.
28. Philadelphia Eagles- Florida T Martez Ivey
The Eagles drafted a couple of Day 3 tackles last week, but those guys are limited (Matt Pryor) and big-time projects (everybody’s favorite Aussie, Jordan Mailata). Let’s identify a legitimate Jason Peters replacement plan. The 6-foot-5, 315-pound Ivey, a former five-star and top-five overall recruit, is about to become a four-year starter. He’s rapidly improved during his time with the Gators, going from a raw-but-gifted starting guard to one of the SEC’s best tackles. If the improvements continue under Dan Mullen and his new staff, Ivey could very well lock down a first-round ticket next spring.
29. Green Bay Packers (from New Orleans Saints)- Miami WR Ahmmon Richards
The Packers threw three Day 3 darts at the receiver position last week. I thought it was a brilliant strategy in a deep/bottom-heavy WR class. But, at best, odds tell us that only one of three will pan out, so Green Bay is likely to be inclined to find another starting receiver next spring. The 6-foot-1, 190-pound Richards is a hyper-athletic receiver with big-time speed. I think he’s a better prospect than Will Fuller coming out. Richards’ flammable game is illustrated by his 19.1 yards per catch average last year (and 18.3 number the year before as a true frosh). Richards was ripping it up last season until a meniscus injury ended his campaign prior to the ACC title game.
30. Minnesota Vikings- Mississippi State DT Jeffery Simmons
The Vikings could have used a developmental DT in last week’s draft, but they were unable to procure one. With Sheldon Richardson only on a one-year deal, defensive tackle would surely shoot to the top of the Purple’s 2019 needs if he walks in free agency after the upcoming season. Simmons is a long, hyper-athletic interior lineman with pedigree (former five-star recruit) and production (First-Team all-SEC last year). If Simmons is to drop out of Round 1 next spring, it’ll probably have something to do with the video of him as a teenager repeatedly punching a woman on the ground who had been involved in an altercation with his sister. To be fair, Simmons has more than stayed on the straight-and-narrow at Mississippi State. He hasn’t gotten in trouble, he’s been lauded for his leadership, and he’s a member of the All-SEC honor roll.
31. New England Patriots- Missouri QB Drew Lock
Lock is an interesting case. He’s ranked either QB1 or QB2 around the majority of the industry, but I just don’t see it right now. He played in a gimmicky Air Raid offense last year under an OC who was hired as UCF’s new HC and with a strong NFL receiving prospect (J’Mon Moore). A majority of Lock’s numbers were put up against the seven worst teams Missouri played last year (Mizzou made a bowl by beating up on non-conference cupcakes and then taking out the dregs of the SEC). Twenty-three of his 43 touchdown passes came in the four games against Missouri State, Idaho, UConn and Arkansas, games that can be tossed out for evaluation purposes. In addition, he has a long windup (gets ball knocked down at line) and throws from a narrow platform. He does have tools, however, so perhaps he’ll make good on first-round projections if he can clean up his mechanics this summer and prove he can excel without Josh Heupel and Moore.
32. Los Angeles Rams- Mississippi State edge rusher Montez Sweat
The Rams badly need linebacker and edge rushing help following the trades of Robert Quinn and Alec Ogletree. The Rams didn’t have much draft equity last week following the trades for Brandin Cooks, Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib. They ended up throwing a bunch of Day 3 darts at the LB/edge hole with John Franklin-Myers (Stephen F. Austin), Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (Oklahoma), Trevon Young (Louisville), LB Travin Howard (TCU) and DE Justin Lawler (SMU). None are premium prospects. Sweat is. Simmons’ running mate with the Bulldogs is a 6-foot-6, 241-pound twitchy athlete off the edge. He posted 15.5 TFL and 10.5 sacks in his first year as a starter. If he takes another leap this fall, I’ve placed him too low.
Two-most intriguing available left by position:
QB: Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham/Northwestern’s Clayton Thorson
RB: Oklahoma’s Rodney Anderson/Iowa State’s David Montgomery
WR: Penn State’s Juwan Johnson/Ohio State’s Parris Campbell
TE: Stanford’s Kaden Smith/Georgia’s Isaac Nauta
OL: Wisconsin’s Michael Deiter/Ohio State’s Isaiah Prince
DE: Miami’s Joe Jackson/Clemson’s Austin Bryant
DT: Ohio State’s Dre’mont Jones/Missouri’s Terry Beckner
LB: USC’s Cameron Smith/Wisconsin’s T.J. Edwards
CB: Western Michigan’s Sam Beal/Notre Dame’s Julian Love
S: USC’s Marvell Tell/Temple’s Delvon Randall
