Welcome to the first NFL Draft Stats Report of the season. Today will be about the 2019 WR class, but I’ll get to the quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends over the course of the next month. I hope you enjoy!
But before we dig in, I need to lay the ground rules because I’m already envisioning some of the replies to these reports. The rankings below aren’t my actual rankings. They aren’t projections either. The rankings are solely about their analytical profile. That’s only one part of the evaluation, so the actual rankings are going to be different.
The things that go into these wide receiver rankings include: class, size, strength of schedule, season-long production, per-game production, per-target efficiency, red zone efficiency, success relative to teammates, etc. That’s not every single important part of the puzzle, but it’s certainly enough to get an accurate analytical ranking of this class.
[[ad:athena]]
| Rank | Receiver | School | Class | Height | Weight | Profile Page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | A.J. Brown | Ole Miss | JR | 6'1 | 230 | 2 |
| 30 | A.J. Richardson | Boise State | SR | 6'2 | 212 | 3 |
| 7 | Andy Isabella | Massachusetts | SR | 5'10 | 190 | 1 |
| 19 | Anthony Johnson | Buffalo | SR | 6'2 | 210 | 2 |
| 46 | Anthony Ratliff-Williams | North Carolina | JR | 6'1 | 205 | 4 |
| 9 | Antoine Wesley | Texas Tech | JR | 6'5 | 200 | 1 |
| 38 | Cody Thompson | Toledo | SR | 6'2 | 205 | 4 |
| 6 | D.K. Metcalf | Ole Miss | SO | 6'4 | 230 | 1 |
| 47 | DaMarkus Lodge | Ole Miss | SR | 6'2 | 204 | 4 |
| 35 | Darius Slayton | Auburn | JR | 6'2 | 190 | 4 |
| 20 | David Sills | West Virginia | SR | 6'4 | 210 | 2 |
| 13 | Deebo Samuel | South Carolina | SR | 6'0 | 210 | 2 |
| 16 | Dillon Mitchell | Oregon | JR | 6'2 | 189 | 2 |
| 40 | Diontae Johnson | Toledo | JR | 5'11 | 181 | 4 |
| 39 | Dredrick Snelson | UCF | JR | 6'0 | 206 | 4 |
| 5 | Emanuel Hall | Missouri | SR | 6'3 | 195 | 1 |
| 8 | Gary Jennings | West Virginia | SR | 6'2 | 215 | 1 |
| 18 | Greg Dortch | Wake Forest | SO | 5'9 | 170 | 2 |
| 2 | Hakeem Butler | Iowa State | JR | 6'6 | 225 | 1 |
| 50 | Hunter Renfrow | Clemson | SR | 5'10 | 185 | 4 |
| 44 | Jakobi Meyers | North Carolina State | JR | 6'2 | 203 | 4 |
| 48 | Jalen Guyton | North Texas | JR | 6'1 | 202 | 4 |
| 34 | Jalen Hurd | Baylor | SR | 6'4 | 217 | 4 |
| 27 | Jamal Custis | Syracuse | SR | 6'5 | 213 | 3 |
| 45 | Jaylen Smith | Louisville | SR | 6'4 | 220 | 4 |
| 1 | JJ Arcega-Whiteside | Stanford | SR | 6'3 | 225 | 1 |
| 23 | John Ursua | Hawaii | JR | 5'10 | 175 | 3 |
| 32 | Johnnie Dixon | Ohio State | SR | 5'11 | 198 | 4 |
| 36 | Jon’Vea Johnson | Toledo | SR | 6'0 | 188 | 4 |
| 37 | Jonathan Duhart | Old Dominion | SR | 6'3 | 210 | 4 |
| 42 | Jovon Durante | Florida Atlantic | JR | 6'0 | 165 | 4 |
| 28 | KeeSean Johnson | Fresno State | SR | 6'2 | 199 | 3 |
| 25 | Kelvin Harmon | North Carolina State | JR | 6'3 | 214 | 3 |
| 4 | Lil’Jordan Humphrey | Texas | JR | 6'4 | 225 | 1 |
| 21 | Marquise Brown | Oklahoma | JR | 5'10 | 168 | 3 |
| 29 | Mecole Hardman | Georgia | JR | 5'11 | 183 | 3 |
| 24 | Miles Boykin | Notre Dame | SR | 6'4 | 228 | 3 |
| 3 | N’Keal Harry | Arizona State | JR | 6'4 | 213 | 1 |
| 33 | Papi White | Ohio | SR | 5'9 | 177 | 4 |
| 26 | Parris Campbell | Ohio State | SR | 6'1 | 208 | 3 |
| 11 | Preston Williams | Colorado State | JR | 6'4 | 210 | 2 |
| 22 | Riley Ridley | Georgia | JR | 6'2 | 200 | 3 |
| 49 | Ryan Davis | Auburn | SR | 5'9 | 185 | 4 |
| 43 | Sean Modster | Boise State | SR | 5'11 | 189 | 4 |
| 15 | Shawn Poindexter | Arizona | SR | 6'5 | 218 | 2 |
| 31 | Stanley Morgan Jr. | Nebraska | SR | 6'1 | 200 | 4 |
| 14 | Terry McLaurin | Ohio State | SR | 6'1 | 205 | 2 |
| 17 | Travis Fulgham | Old Dominion | SR | 6'3 | 215 | 2 |
| 41 | Tyre Brady | Marshall | SR | 6'3 | 206 | 4 |
| 10 | Xavier Ubosi | UAB | SR | 6'3 | 215 | 1 |
I have ranked 50 prospects -- solely based on their analytical profile remember -- and included a little snapshot of their 2018 season. You’ll see a JPEG image for each prospect, and I need to explain a couple of the metrics. The “Season”, “Per Game”, and “Red Zone” metrics are straightforward, but let me explain “Team Share.” The player data that goes into “Team Share” is the receivers’ per-game data, not his season-long data. The same goes for the team data that goes into “Team Share.” By doing so, I allow for a better comparison between players who played all of their teams’ games and players who missed games. For example, Emanuel Hall played in seven games and I list his “Team Share of Yards” at 42%. Don’t read that as Hall accounting for 42% of Missouri’s season-long receiving yards. Read that as Hall accounting for 42% of Missouri’s yards on a per-game level. Totally different.
Lastly, the “YPT” and “TD%” metrics in the “Team Share” row are comparisons between the receiver and his teammates. For example, Emanuel Hall’s “YPT” in the “Team Share” row is 7.1 yards per target. That means that Hall averaged 7.1 MORE yards per target than his teammates. Of course, the higher, the better. Out of all of the stats I use, the YPT Versus Team and TD% Versus Team are among my favorites because it helps remove quarterback play from the equation.
If you have any questions regarding any of this, please reach out to me on Twitter @HaydenWinks and I’ll answer them. While you are there, go follow @DevyWarehouse for highlights of NFL prospects. I’m using a few of his videos below. Now, let’s have some fun!
1. JJ Arcega-Whiteside - Stanford - Junior - 6’3/225
YPT: 11.3
YPT Versus Team: +3.7
TD% Versus Team: +10.4%
Marginal Efficiency: 15.3% (12th out of 50)
Marginal Explosion: 0.51 (19th)
Career Stats: 135 - 2,229 - 28
Return Stats: None
JJ Arcega-Whiteside passes with flying colors, especially as an elite touchdown scorer. 14.9% of Arcega-Whiteside’s 94 targets went for a touchdown when the rest of the Stanford pass catchers were scoring at a 4.5% clip. That 10.4% TD rate difference was the third highest of the receivers in this sample, trailing only Terry McLaurin (14.7%) and Gary Jennings (11.0%). Half of Arcega-Whiteside’s touchdowns came in the red zone -- the third highest percentage of TDs coming in the red zone in the sample -- thanks to a ridiculous 64% touchdown rate on his 11 red zone targets. Touchdowns can be fluky, but #FilmGrinders love Arcega-Whiteside’s ability to win contested catches and box-out defenders on jump balls. I’m comfortable projecting Arcega-Whiteside as an NFL-caliber red zone weapon with the upside to be a useful field stretcher.
2. Hakeem Butler - Iowa State - Junior - 6’6/225
YPT: 12.2
YPT Versus Team: +5.0
TD% Versus Team: +4.2%
Marginal Efficiency: 9.4% (30th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.88 (4th)
Career Stats: 110 - 2,149 - 18
Return Stats: None
Hakeem Butler is a 6-foot-6, 225-pound giant capable of picking up huge gains by simply overpowering defenders. Butler is high on this list not because of his red zone production which was surprisingly below average in 2018, but because of his yardage and team share metrics. Butler’s 12.2 yards per target certainly passes everyone’s check-list, but it’s even more impressive considering his teammates’ YPT average was just 7.2. Butler also received plus grades in Marginal Efficiency and Marginal Explosion, but all eyes will be on Butler during the NFL Combine to see if he has the speed to win at the next level. For now, Butler belongs in the second round for teams who need a receiver who can win big down the field.
3. N’Keal Harry - Arizona State - Junior - 6’4/213
YPT: 9.5
YPT Versus Team: +2.7
TD% Versus Team: +4.2%
Marginal Efficiency: 6.3% (36th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.49 (21st)
Career Stats: 213 - 2,889 - 22
Punt Return Stats: 16.9 yards (3rd) on 9 punt returns
N’Keal Harry is a fun player to watch with the ball in his hands, and that comes through as a punt returner. Of 155 players with at least nine punt returns, Harry averaged the 10th most yards (16.9) per return. As a receiver, Harry dominated in team share across all categories, especially touchdowns despite below average red zone efficiency. An alpha in space, Harry is expected to test well at the NFL Combine (size-speed wise) and has a good chance at becoming a team’s No. 2 receiver with some upside for more. I’m fine with Harry towards the end of Round 1.
4. Lil’Jordan Humphrey - Texas - Junior - 6’4/225
YPT: 9.8
YPT Versus Team: +2.9
TD% Versus Team: +2.2%
Marginal Efficiency: 15.5% (11th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.31 (30th)
Career Stats: 125 - 1,622 - 10
Return Stats: 21.5 yards (4th) on 10 kick returns
A 2018 breakout player, Humphrey was called a “swiss-army knife” by his coaches for his ability to do a little bit of everything, including playing in the slot or out wide at 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds. Humphrey doesn’t pop out anywhere analytically, but he was above average in nearly every category. He was moderately better than his teammates at picking up yards (2.9 more yards per target) and scoring touchdowns (2.2% higher touchdown rate), and his Marginal Efficiency and Marginal Explosion were average to above average. Humphrey also returned 10 kicks at Texas this year, and he did all of this as a true junior. Ultimately, I think Humphrey is a decent receiver prospect, but I wouldn’t put him inside my top-5.
5. Emanuel Hall - Missouri - Senior - 6’3/195
YPT: 14.3
YPT Versus Team: +7.1
TD% Versus Team: +4.6%
Marginal Efficiency: 17.3% (7th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.95 (3rd)
Career Stats: 97 - 2,016 - 16
Return Stats: None
Emanuel Hall may end up being higher on analytical-driven draft boards compared to those who grind the All-22, but that’s okay with me (NFL Combine could change this). Hall finished with the second highest YPT (14.3) in the class, and he averaged the second most yards per game (118.1) as well. Hall also accounted 42% of Missouri’s receiving yards on a per-game-basis, which is third most in this class. It wasn’t surprising to see Hall test in the top-10 in Marginal Efficiency and Marginal Explosiveness. If he runs well at the NFL Combine, I like Hall as a third round pick.
6. D.K. Metcalf - Ole Miss - Sophomore - 6’4/230
YPT: 13.9
YPT Versus Team: +4.9
TD% Versus Team: +8.1%
Marginal Efficiency: 20.2% (4th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.86 (6th)
Career Stats: 67 - 1,228 - 14
Return Stats: None
There’s a lot of red on his chart because he missed the second half of the season with a neck injury, but don’t let that fool you. Metcalf is a beast, and all of his efficiency metrics show it. His 13.9 yards per target is among the highest in the class, and it’s 4.9 yards more than the average on his teammates. Metcalf also tested super well in Marginal Efficiency and Marginal Explosion, so he’s just two steps away from being a first-round pick. Metcalf needs medical clearance on his neck injury, and he needs an above average combine. If he aces both, then Metcalf will be receiving high grades from both #FilmGrinders and the analytics community. NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah compared Metcalf to Josh Gordon recently.
7. Andy Isabella - UMass - Senior - 5’10/190
YPT: 11.6
YPT Versus Team: +4.5
TD% Versus Team: +3.3%
Marginal Efficiency: 12.1% (20th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.61 (11th)
Career Stats: 231 - 3,526 - 30
Punt Return Stats: 7.9 yards (7th) on 7 punt returns
Andy Isabella led college football in receiving yards (1,698), was second in receptions (102), and was sixth in receiving touchdowns (13). There aren’t any questions about his college production, especially after posting a 15-219-2 receiving line on the road against Georgia, and there are little questions about his efficiency as well. Since Isabella didn’t play with the big boys in the Power 5, Isabella needs to show out at the NFL Combine to secure a Day 2 selection, but he beat Denzel Ward in the 100m and 200m sprints in high school so I’m not concerned about that. Overall, I’m bullish about Isabella’s ability as a slot receiver and possible punt returner in the NFL.
8. Gary Jennings - West Virginia - Senior - 6’2/215
YPT: 12.6
YPT Versus Team: +3.7
TD% Versus Team: +11.0%
Marginal Efficiency: 21.7% (2nd)
Marginal Explosion: 0.58 (13th)
Career Stats: 168 - 2,294 - 17
Return Stats: None
Gary Jennings is not a top-8 wide receiver prospect in this class, but his metrics are quite good which makes him an interesting evaluation. Helped by the West Virginia system and quarterback prospect Will Grier, Jennings had a huge 17.8% TD rate and 12.6 yards per target, but upon further examination, it was clear that Jennings was more efficient than his teammates, including fellow wide receiver prospect David Sills (12.9 TD rate and 8.5 YPT). Part of the reason why he was so effective was his production in the red zone, where he caught all 12 of his targets and scored three touchdowns. Jennings is a receiver who may end up being a sleeper of mine if he can test well at the NFL Combine because he’s getting little buzz at the moment.
9. Antoine Wesley - Texas Tech - Junior - 6’5/200
YPT: 10.8
YPT Versus Team: +3.8
TD% Versus Team: +2.3%
Marginal Efficiency: 14.9% (14th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.45 (25th)
Career Stats: 98 - 1,547 - 9
Return Stats: None
Antoine Wesley was a productive player for Kliff Kingsbury in 2018, but I’m surprised he wasn’t better in the red zone since he’s 6-foot-5. His 29% catch rate in the red zone is among the worst in the class, and I’m sure some of those struggles can be pointed to his slender frame. While that wasn’t very effective in the red zone, Wesley was pretty efficient between the 20s picking up 10.8 yards per target. That’s more impressive when compared to his teammates, who averaged 7.0 yards per target. I’d roll the dice on Wesley at some point during Day 2, preferably in Round 3. There’s some upside here, but equally as much bust potential since he’s basically a one-year player. A reunion with Kingsbury for the Arizona Cardinals makes sense to me on the surface.
10. Xavier Ubosi - UAB - Senior - 6’3/215
YPT: 13.7
YPT Versus Team: +6.5
TD% Versus Team: +9.5%
Marginal Efficiency: 14.0% (17th)
Marginal Explosion: 1.25 (1st)
Career Stats: 48 - 1,065 - 9
Return Stats: None
Xavier Ubosi falls into the “not used enough, but very efficient” category. Going into the bowl game, I wrote that Ubosi could turn into an analytics sweetheart, and then he went on to rip Northern Illinois for 221 yards and three touchdowns to add fuel to the fire. Ubosi ran laps around his teammates in both yards per target and touchdown rate while testing through the roof in Marginal Efficiency and Marginal Explosion. Ubosi isn’t just a small school receiver who went crazy on his limited targets either. He stands at 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, and the senior looks the part while running around on the field (to my biased and untrained eyes). Put Ubosi on my NFL Combine must watch list (if he gets an invite), and let’s hope he can turn into a SPARQ freak as well.
~
11. Preston Williams - Colorado State - Junior - 6’4/210
YPT: 8.0
YPT Versus Team: +1.0
TD% Versus Team: +4.6%
Marginal Efficiency: 5.9% (37th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.27 (36th)
Career Stats: 112 - 1,592 - 16
Kick Return Stats: 19.8 yards (7th) on six kick returns
Preston Williams will reportedly be off some team’s draft boards because of character, so I don’t want to spend too much time here. Williams put up huge numbers on ridiculous volume (169 targets) after transferring from Tennessee to Colorado State, but he wasn’t overly efficient on those targets. Of course, it’s hard to be that efficient on that big of a workload but Andy Isabella managed to do so. There’s some upside here, but I’m not sure we’ll ever seen it if the reports are true.
12. A.J. Brown - Ole Miss - Junior - 6’1/225
YPT: 11.2
YPT Versus Team: +2.4
TD% Versus Team: +0.3%
Marginal Efficiency: 10.4% (24th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.52 (18th)
Career Stats: 189 - 2,984 - 19
Return Stats: None
Often considered a WR1 candidate before the 2018 season, A.J. Brown had another productive season, and he may have even been unlucky scoring touchdowns. Despite catching 11-of-12 red zone targets, Brown only scored two red zone touchdowns, but that’s not something I’m worried about projecting forward. Between the 20s, Brown wasn’t overly efficient, but his 11.2 YPT average is certainly more than good enough to remain excited about his NFL future. If his NFL Combine results don’t change his draft stock, then Brown deserves to be drafted in the second round.
13. Deebo Samuel - South Carolina - Senior - 6’0/210
YPT: 9.1
YPT Versus Team: +1.4
TD% Versus Team: +5.1%
Marginal Efficiency: 5.2% (41st)
Marginal Explosion: 0.55 (17th)
Career Stats: 148 - 2,076 - 16
Return Stats: 24.8 yards (3rd) on 23 kick returns
Deebo Samuel’s chart looks pretty mediocre with a lot of light pink and light green, but the thing I’m most concerned with is his medicals. All of these stats would’ve been better if he played at full speed and that’s why I’m not even paying attention to these stats. Because of this, Samuel is a hard player to evaluate from the outside. I’ll trust what the reports say about his medical evaluation and move from there. If everything checks out, then I’m not ruling out a second round selection.
14. Terry McLaurin - Ohio State - Senior - 6’1/205
YPT: 14.3
YPT Versus Team: +5.9
TD% Versus Team: +14.7%
Marginal Efficiency: 27.1% (1st)
Marginal Explosion: 0.73 (9th)
Career Stats: 75 - 1,251 - 19
Return Stats: None
Similar to Gary Jennings and Xavier Ubosi, Terry McLaurin is a wide receiver prospect that has better metrics than where draft analysts have McLaurin ranked on positional big boards. Dwayne Haskins was excellent throwing to all of his receivers, but nobody better than McLaurin. The senior had a sample-high 22.4% touchdown rate (11 touchdowns on 49 targets), when the rest of Ohio State’s pass catchers were at 7.7%. That 14.7% difference was much better than even the second best receiver in the sample (Gary Jennings, 11.0%). But it wasn’t just touchdowns either. McLaurin finishes with the highest yards per target average (14.3) in the sample as well. Unless McLaurin begins to climb up draft boards, I’ll be higher on McLaurin compared to the consensus, assuming he tests well at the NFL Combine.
15. Shawn Poindexter - Arizona - Senior - 6’5/218
YPT: 10.5
YPT Versus Team: +3.3
TD% Versus Team: +9.7%
Marginal Efficiency: 9.6% (29th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.58 (13th)
Career Stats: 67 - 1,135 - 12
Return Stats: None
Shawn Poindexter ended up much higher on this list than I was expecting going into this project, and I think that’s because of some good luck scoring touchdowns. Poindexter managed to score touchdowns on 15.3% of his 72 targets, and only 1-of-11 touchdowns came in the red zone. That means Poindexter is either an elite long touchdown scorer or he just found the end zone two to three more times than he should have based on his targets and skill. While pessimistic that Poindexter is actually as good as this indicates, I’m curious if analysts who study his tape start becoming more vocal in his praise, and I’m interested in his NFL Combine results because Poindexter originally signed with Cal Baptist to play volleyball before he opted to continue his football career at Glendale Community College. There’s a chance that Poindexter jumps out the gym.
16. Dillon Mitchell - Oregon - Junior - 6’2/189
YPT: 9.0
YPT Versus Team: +1.8
TD% Versus Team: +1.1%
Marginal Efficiency: 5.3% (39th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.46 (24th)
Career Stats: 119 - 1,710 - 14
Return Stats: None
Dillon Mitchell was Justin Herbert’s favorite target in 2018 (look at those team share stats),but his efficiency metrics were all average to below average, which is concerning if Herbert is as good as everyone says he is. Going into his project, I expected Mitchell to be above his 9.0 yards per attempt, especially if the non-Mitchell Oregon-average was at a decent 7.2 yards per attempt. However, I’m not naive. Mitchell is expected to test well at the NFL Combine, and those results may end up being his best part of his draft profile (along with his production), so I’m not writing Mitchell off yet.
17. Travis Fulgham - Old Dominion - Senior - 6’3/215
YPT: 10.4
YPT Versus Team: +3.8
TD% Versus Team: +5.3%
Marginal Efficiency: 12.4% (18th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.44 (26th)
Career Stats: 128 - 2,044 - 18
Return Stats: None
Travis Fulgham ended up with average to above average metrics across the board -- Fulgham was ninth in YPT Versus Team (+3.8), 10th in Team Share of TDs (42%), and 11th in TD% Versus Team (5.3%) to name a few. But I like his story too. Fulgham moved to the United States in ninth grade and only started playing football in 11th grade. He certainly has a raw look to his craft -- maybe his physicality is deceiving me for being raw -- but it seems like he has a chance to grow into a more polished player since he’s so new to the game. If he runs well at the NFL Combine, it’s time to start considering Fulgham a legit sleeper because his analytical profile looks pretty good.
18. Greg Dortch - Wake Forest - Junior - 5’9/170
YPT: 8.6
YPT Versus Team: +2.4
TD% Versus Team: +1.2%
Marginal Efficiency: 11.3% (22nd)
Marginal Explosion: 0.13 (45th)
Career Stats: 142 - 1,800 - 17
Punt Return Stats: 11.0 yards (4th) on 25 punt returns
Kick Return Stats: 20.9 yards (6th) on 11 kick returns
Greg Dortch tied for the FBS-lead in punt return touchdowns (2) and had the sixth most punt return yards (276), which is one way to show his shiftiness. I’m anticipating Dortch to be quicker than fast at the NFL Combine (that’s fine), but I have some questions about his pure receiving ability. Dortch’s 8.6 yards per target average is below average for NFL wide receiver prospects, and he was only a little bit better than his teammates on a per-target-basis. Still, Dortch was a pretty productive player, and I like to be bullish on players who return punts/kicks in college, so I’m fine with Dortch early in Day 3.
19. Anthony Johnson - Buffalo - Senior - 6’2/210
YPT: 10.8
YPT Versus Team: +4.1
TD% Versus Team: +6.5%
Marginal Efficiency: 9.7% (28th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.78 (8th)
Career Stats: 133 - 2,367 - 25
Return Stats: None
Anthony Johnson was an awesome receiver in 2018, but he’s lower on this list than his production/efficiency would indicate for a couple reasons. Johnson played at the University of Buffalo, he was doing this as a senior, and he didn’t do anything in the red zone. I was surprised that Johnson was only targeted four times in the red zone this season, and even more surprised that he didn’t score a single touchdown in the red zone. However, I’m not so sure that’s indicative of a lack of skill, and I know it’s not because of a lack of size. Perhaps this was just a weird stretch for Johnson, so I’m not going to make it a big deal. Overall, Johnson looks to be on track to be selected at the Day 2/Day 3 turn.
20. Marquise Brown - Oklahoma - Junior - 5’10/168
YPT: 12.4
YPT Versus Team: +1.6
TD% Versus Team: -1.9%
Marginal Efficiency: 18.9% (6th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.59 (12th)
Career Stats: 132 - 2,413 - 17
Return Stats: None
Alert! Please don’t at me on Twitter! Marquise Brown is actually in my top-5 at receiver despite this low ranking. He was severely hurt by the YPT Versus Team and TD% Versus Team metrics, and that’s not really fair since Kyler Murray was insane throwing to all of his targets. That’s why analytis can’t be completely relied on. There’s always some human judgement to analyze the context. … Other than that, Brown’s profile looks good. Really high yards per target and catch rate, plus high team share of receptions and yards. Brown is also going to be a riser when NFL Combine data is inserted because he’s going to run really well. Overall, Brown is much better than this No. 20 ranking, and Brown should be an effective down-field weapon in the NFL with upside for more.
~
21. David Sills - West Virginia - Junior - 6’4/210
YPT: 8.5
YPT Versus Team: -1.3
TD% Versus Team: +5.8%
Marginal Efficiency: 5.3% (39th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.47 (23rd)
Career Stats: 132 - 2,097 - 35
Return Stats: None
David Sills has scored 33 touchdowns in the last two seasons, and that’s because of his craftiness in the red zone. Sills scored touchdowns on 6-of-16 red zone targets, and it was obvious that Will Grier and Dana Holgorsen were scheming up plays to give Sills a shot at a score. However, his yardage metrics aren’t so great. Sills is one of the few receiver prospects who averaged less yards per target than his teammates -- that’s not a good sign -- and his Marginal Efficiency and Marginal Explosion metrics are average to below average. Even with the yardage concerns, I think Sills can be a savvy weapon in the NFL in a limited role, especially if he can test well at the NFL Combine.
22. Riley Ridley - Georgia - Junior - 6’2/200
YPT: 8.9
YPT Versus Team: 0.0
TD% Versus Team: +5.7%
Marginal Efficiency: 20.6% (3rd)
Marginal Explosion: 0.03 (48th)
Career Stats: 69 - 1,015 - 13
Return Stats: None
Riley Ridley wasn’t used enough at Georgia, but that’s out of his control. What Ridley could control was his efficiency, and Ridley was a very good touchdown scorer, especially in the red zone. Ridley scored touchdowns on 3-of-4 red zone targets, which resulted in a high-end 14.1% overall touchdown rate. Along with positive touchdown metrics, Ridley also tested well in Marginal Efficiency, a statistic similar to Success Rate. That was surprising considering his below average 8.9 YPT, but it shows how complex Ridley’s statistical evaluation is. One thing that should help clear things up is his testing results, and Ridley is expected to help his draft stock at the NFL Combine. Overall, Ridley is an interesting receiver prospect, and he certainly deserves to be ranked higher than what this list indicates, especially with #FilmGrinders loving what they see from him.
23. John Ursua - Hawaii - Junior - 5’10/175
YPT: 9.1
YPT Versus Team: +1.5
TD% Versus Team: +3.9%
Marginal Efficiency: 4.3% (43rd)
Marginal Explosion: 0.49 (21st)
Career Stats: 189 - 2,662 - 24
Return Stats: None
John Ursua’s production was huge, especially in the red zone where he posted caught 11-of-17 targets for five touchdowns. Even in Hawaii’s high-flying offense, Ursua’s team share numbers were all above average, but I’m not overly impressed in his other metrics. Ursua only averaged 1.5 more yards per target than his teammates (32nd), Hawaii’s strength of schedule was 100th, his Marginal Efficiency was 43rd, and he’s undersized. A really strong NFL Combine can change my opinion, but there are better sleepers in this class.
24. Miles Boykin - Notre Dame - Senior - 6’4/228
YPT: 9.1
YPT Versus Team: +1.4
TD% Versus Team: +3.6%
Marginal Efficiency: 9.8% (27th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.26 (38th)
Career Stats: 77 - 1,206 - 11
Return Stats: None
Miles Boykin might have the most average analytical profile of anyone on this list. Just look at that snapshot above. Where he does get a boost is his size. Receivers with production at 6-foot-4, 228 pounds will always get looks, but I’m not going to get carried away unless he improves his draft stock at the NFL Combine.
25. Kelvin Harmon - NC State - Junior - 6’3/214
YPT: 10.0
YPT Versus Team: +2.3
TD% Versus Team: +1.2%
Marginal Efficiency: 16.2% (9th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.25 (39th)
Career Stats: 177 - 2,665 - 16
Return Stats: None
Kelvin Harmon needs to be ranked way higher than he is here. My model did not like his touchdown metrics, but we all know those can be flukey. Instead, I’m focusing on his receptions and yardage, where he tested above average in almost every way to look at his production and efficiency. His Marginal Efficiency and season-long yardage were 9th, and his receiving yards and receptions per game were 10th. Plus, he has great size. I’m hoping his NFL Combine numbers bring him up this list because I think he’s a top-10 receiver in this class.
26. Parris Campbell - Ohio State - Senior - 6’1/208
YPT: 9.7
YPT Versus Team: +0.9
TD% Versus Team: +2.4%
Marginal Efficiency: 14.4% (15th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.24 (40th)
Career Stats: 143 - 1,768 - 15
Return Stats: None
Paris Campbell catching 8-of-9 red zone targets is silly (6th). Catching 82% of his intended targets is even crazier (2nd). Campbell’s touchdown numbers were above average as well, but Campbell wasn’t picking up yards as much as the other guys in the class. His 9.7 YPT is 25th in the class, but his YPT Versus Team (+0.9) was 41st. This is partially due to his teammates Terry McLaurin and Johnnie Dixon having good seasons, but it’s still below average. I’m anticipating Campbell to improve his draft stock at the NFL Combine, and he easily could end up being a top-20 receiver in the class.
27. Jamal Custis - Syracuse - Senior - 6’5/213
YPT: 10.0
YPT Versus Team: +3.1
TD% Versus Team: +2.3%
Marginal Efficiency: 3.8% (45th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.87 (5th)
Career Stats: 64 - 1,048 - 8
Return Stats: None
Jamal Custis didn’t have the greatest season, but he helped his profile with strong yardage and explosion grades. His yards per target (10.0) was 21st in the class, and his YPT Versus Team (+3.1) was 15th, but his Marginal Explosion was even better. Custis finished top-5 in Marginal Explosion, only trailing Xavier Ubosi, Jon’Vea Johnson, Emanuel Hall, and Hakeem Butler. Custis also helps himself by being 6-foot-5, 213 pounds and with Syracuse finishing with a top-50 strength of schedule. Overall, I don’t see a ton to be excited about with Custis, but he’s certainly nowhere near the bottom of the class.
28. Mecole Hardman - Georgia - Junior - 5’11/183
YPT: 9.7
YPT Versus Team: +0.9
TD% Versus Team: +3.9%
Marginal Efficiency: 4.8% (42nd)
Marginal Explosion: 0.63 (10th)
Career Stats: 60 - 961 - 11
Punt Return Stats: 20.1 yards (1st) on 16 punt returns
Kick Return Stats: 25.2 yards (2nd) on 14 kick returns
Perhaps the best part of Mecole Hardman’s analytical profile is his production as a returner. Hardman finished first in the FBS in average punt return yards (20.1) this season, which puts him on a list with Dante Pettis, Christian Kirk, Ryan Switzer, Antonio Brown, Maurice Jones-Drew (the lighter version of MJD that is), and Ted Ginn Jr. as players who have led college football in average punt return yards in a single-season. That’s not bad company at all, especially since Hardman was doing so in the SEC. As a receiver, Hardman was below average compared to others in this draft class -- his YPT and TD% were slightly above average to be fair-- but some of that can be explained by Georgia’s offense. Hardman’s testing results are paramount for his draft profile, but he certainly looked fast on television. If he tests well, Hardman may end up being a better NFL receiver than college receiver.
29. KeeSean Johnson - Fresno State - Senior - 6’2/199
YPT: 10.3
YPT Versus Team: +2.6
TD% Versus Team: +0.1%
Marginal Efficiency: 12.2% (19th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.39 (27th)
Career Stats: 275 - 3,463 - 24
Return Stats: None
KeeSean Johnson will be higher on my final receiver rankings, and I’m not sure why he ended up at No. 29 based on his analytical profile. It’s likely due to his touchdown metrics -- TD% (40th) and TD% Versus Team (41st) -- but his yardage and catch rate numbers were quite good. Johnson also tested higher than this ranking in Marginal Efficiency and Marginal Explosion. If the NFL Combine results are decent, there’s a decent chance Johnson moves up a couple spots.
30. A.J. Richardson - Boise State - Senior - 6’2/212
YPT: 10.6
YPT Versus Team: +2.8
TD% Versus Team: +4.2%
Marginal Efficiency: 19.8% (5th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.28 (34th)
Career Stats: 99 - 1,474 - 11
Return Stats: None
A.J. Richardson wasn’t very production relative to the other receivers in the class, but he was pretty efficient. His Marginal Efficiency 5th in the class and he was 2.8 yards per target better than his teammates. However, his efficiency in the red zone was a different story. Richardson only managed to catch 2-of-7 targets, and he didn’t score any touchdowns. Richardson needs to have an impressive NFL Combine for me to get excited about him as a pro.
~
31. Stanley Morgan Jr. - Nebraska - Senior - 6’1/200
YPT: 9.0
YPT Versus Team: +2.4
TD% Versus Team: 2.1%
Marginal Efficiency: 7.6% (33rd)
Marginal Explosion: 0.3 (32nd)
Career Stats: 189 - 2,747 - 22
Return Stats: None
32. Johnnie Dixon - Ohio State - Senior - 5’11/198
YPT: 10.8
YPT Versus Team: +2.0
TD% Versus Team: +4.4%
Marginal Efficiency: 16.1% (10th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.57 (15th)
Career Stats: 67 - 1,146 - 16
Return Stats: 18.5 yards (8th) on 13 kick returns
33. Papi White - Ohio - Senior - 5’9/177
YPT: 9.9
YPT Versus Team: +1.7
TD% Versus Team: +1.5%
Marginal Efficiency: 9.9% (26th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.57 (15th)
Career Stats: 161 - 2,620 - 19
Return Stats: 3.1 yards (8th) on 10 punt returns
34. Jalen Hurd - Baylor - Senior - 6’4/217
YPT: 8.8
YPT Versus Team: +1.4
TD% Versus Team: -1.1%
Marginal Efficiency: 14.1% (16th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.02 (49th)
Career Stats: 136 - 1,438 - 10
Kick Return Stats: 20.5 yards (8th) on 18 kick returns
35. Darius Slayton - Auburn - Junior - 6’2/190
YPT: 9.2
YPT Versus Team: +2.0
TD% Versus Team: +1.7%
Marginal Efficiency: -4.4% (50th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.8 (7th)
Career Stats: 79 - 1,605 - 11
Return Stats: None
36. Jon’Vea Johnson - Toledo - Senior - 6’0/188
YPT: 11.6
YPT Versus Team: +4.8
TD% Versus Team: +8.8%
Marginal Efficiency: 3.6% (47th)
Marginal Explosion: 1.25 (1st)
Career Stats: 125 - 2,265 - 25
Return Stats: None
37. Jonathan Duhart - Old Dominion - Senior - 6’3/210
YPT: 8.2
YPT Versus Team: +1.1
TD% Versus Team: +3.5%
Marginal Efficiency: 5.6% (38th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.30 (32nd)
Career Stats: 183 - 2,664 - 28
Return Stats: None
38. Cody Thompson - Toledo - Senior - 6’2/205
YPT: 7.4
YPT Versus Team: -0.1
TD% Versus Team: +4.2%
Marginal Efficiency: 3.9% (44th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.31 (30th)
Career Stats: 181 - 3,312 - 30
Punt Return Stats: 9.9 yards (5th) on 10 punt returns
39. Dredrick Snelson - UCF - Junior - 6’0/206
YPT: 11.3
YPT Versus Team: +3.3
TD% Versus Team: +1.1%
Marginal Efficiency: 16.5% (8th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.39 (27th)
Career Stats: 106 - 1,519 - 15
Kick Return Stats: None
40. Diontae Johnson - Toledo - Junior - 5’11/181
YPT: 8.4
YPT Versus Team: +1.1
TD% Versus Team: +0.7%
Marginal Efficiency: 0.5% (49th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.51 (19th)
Career Stats: 135 - 2,235 - 23
Punt Return Stats: 18.5 yards (2nd) on 13 punt returns
Kick Return Stats: 25.8 yards (1st) on 16 kick returns
41. Tyre Brady - Marshall - Senior - 6’3/206
YPT: 7.2
YPT Versus Team: +0.5
TD% Versus Team: +2.9%
Marginal Efficiency: 0.7% (48th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.28 (34th)
Career Stats: 142 - 2,056 - 18
Return Stats: None
42. Jovon Durante - Florida Atlantic - Junior - 6’0/165
YPT: 9.1
YPT Versus Team: +1.8
TD% Versus Team: +1.7%
Marginal Efficiency: 8.3% (32nd)
Marginal Explosion: 0.27 (36th)
Career Stats: 125 - 1,599 - 12
Return Stats: None
43. Sean Modster - Boise State - Senior - 5’11/189
YPT: 8.8
YPT Versus Team: +0.7
TD% Versus Team: +0.6%
Marginal Efficiency: 15.2% (13th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.05 (47th)
Career Stats: 111 - 1,487 - 11
Return Stats: None
44. Jakobi Meyers - NC State - Junior - 6’2/203
YPT: 8.9
YPT Versus Team: +0.9
TD% Versus Team: -2.1%
Marginal Efficiency: 12.1% (20th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.08 (46th)
Career Stats: 92 - 1,047 - 4
Return Stats: None
45. Jaylen Smith - Louisville - Senior - 6’4/220
YPT: 8.2
YPT Versus Team: +2.1
TD% Versus Team: -1.1%
Marginal Efficiency: 6.5% (35th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.16 (42nd)
Career Stats: 152 - 2,505 - 15
Return Stats: None
46. Anthony Ratliff-Williams - North Carolina - Junior - 6’1/205
YPT: 8.5
YPT Versus Team: +2.3
TD% Versus Team: -1.3%
Marginal Efficiency: 3.8% (45th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.36 (29th)
Career Stats: 80 - 1,340 - 8
Return Stats: 21.4 yards (5th) on 28 kick returns
47. DaMarkus Lodge - Ole Miss - Senior - 6’2/204
YPT: 8.0
YPT Versus Team: -1.8
TD% Versus Team: -1.6%
Marginal Efficiency: 8.9% (31st)
Marginal Explosion: 0.15 (43rd)
Career Stats: 65 - 877 - 4
Return Stats: None
48. Ryan Davis - Auburn - Senior - 5’9/185
YPT: 6.6
YPT Versus Team: -1.3
TD% Versus Team: -5.4%
Marginal Efficiency: 10.4% (24th)
Marginal Explosion: -0.28 (50th)
Career Stats: 178 - 1,555 - 7
Return Stats: 9.9 yards (5th) on 22 punt returns
49. Jalen Guyton - North Texas - Junior - 6’1/202
YPT: 8.6
YPT Versus Team: +0.8
TD% Versus Team: +0.9%
Marginal Efficiency: 7.4% (34th)
Marginal Explosion: 0.23 (41st)
Career Stats: 103 - 1,580 - 15
Return Stats: None
50. Hunter Renfrow - Clemson - Senior - 5’10/185
YPT: 8.6
YPT Versus Team: +0.4
TD% Versus Team: -6.6%
Marginal Efficiency: 10.6% (23rd)
Marginal Explosion: 0.15 (43rd)
Career Stats: 186 - 2,133 - 15
Return Stats: None
