The final whistle of the Super Bowl marks the end of the 2021 season. That solidifies all draft positions and gets us looking to free agency as the next chance for teams to make significant changes to their rosters. In this series, I’ll break down the needs and goals of every team as it relates to the 2022 offseason. Included will be cap space, cut candidates, positions of need, and plenty of other useful stats and notes as we prepare for free agency and the 2022 NFL Draft. Special thanks to Over the Cap, Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and Ben Baldwin’s RBSDM.com for all of the useful stats they track and house.
Saints 2021 Recap
Jameis Winston began the year as the Saints’ starter at quarterback but Taysom Hill was waiting in the wings. Winston, who earned a second contract with the Saints while holding the clipboard for Drew Brees in 2020, drastically cut back on his mistakes. His 6.4 percent sack rate was his lowest mark since 2016 and a 1.9 percent interception rate became the best number he has ever achieved. He did this while throwing a touchdown on 8.4 percent of his throws. Things were humming along nicely until Winston tore his ACL, forcing Sean Payton to enact the Hill project. The Saints’ season quickly went south as the offense averaged -.11 EPA per dropback and -.16 EPA per rush attempt following Winston’s season-ending injury. The defense was as dominant as ever and kept the Saints in the playoff hunt until the bitter end. New Orleans and Tampa Bay were the only teams to rank top-five in EPA against the run and pass. The all-around performance of the defense and a long track record of success earned defensive coordinator Dennis Allen the title of head coach following Payton’s retirement at the end of the year.
Key Offensive Stats
- Points per game: 21.4 (19th)
- Dropback EPA: -.001 (22nd)
- Passing yards per game: 187 (32nd)
- Rush EPA: -.15 (28th)
- Rushing yards per game: 117 (15th)
It was a rough year for skill position players in New Orleans. Alvin Kamara set career-lows in Pro Football Focus rushing grade, yards per carry, and breakaway run rate. He also struggled as a receiver, posting his second-worst season by yards per target and yards per route run. Michael Thomas didn’t play a snap because of ongoing issues with his ankle. Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway mostly failed to step up and Kamara was the only member of the team to earn a per-game target share north of 20 percent. Hill didn’t make much of his five starts at the end of the year, throwing four touchdowns and as many interceptions while adding 54 yards on the ground weekly.
Key Defensive Stats
- Points per game: 19.7 (4th)
- Dropback EPA: -.07 (3rd)
- Passing yards per game: 225 (14th)
- Rush EPA: -.16 (1st)
- Rushing yards per game: 94 (4th)
The Saints boasted one of the best defensive lines in the league. PFF ranked three of their men in the trenches — Marcus Davenport, Cameron Jordan, and David Onyemata — as top-10 players at their respective positions. The defense finished top-five in yards per drive, points per drive, and percent of drives that ended with points on the board. New Orleans was built to win low-scoring games and that’s exactly what happened. They went 6-3 in games that stayed under 42 points and 3-5 in games that topped that mark.
Saints 2022 Offseason
Notes | |
Cap Space | -$42.2 million |
First Pick | No. 18 |
Total Draft Value | 25th |
Notable Free Agents | QB Jameis Winston, LT Terron Armstead, S Marcus Williams, S P.J. Williams, LB Kwon Alexander, WR Tre’Quan Smith |
Cut Candidates | CB Bradley Roby ($9.5 million in savings) |
Notes: New Orleans’s total draft value is the sum of the value of every pick they own using the Fitzgerald-Spielberger NFL Draft Trade Value Chart. The values are only estimates until the NFL announces compensatory picks. Cap savings are listed assuming the player is cut before June 1st.
The Saints are over the cap, owe the IRS, have crippling student loan debt, and hold over a dozen credit cards. They restructured the contracts of Thomas, Andrus Peat, and Ryan Ramczyk to gain nearly $34 million against the salary cap but they still have a long way to go. More accounting maneuvers will take place in the next month.
Team Needs
Quarterback
The Saints can’t go into 2022 with Hill and Ian Book as their quarterbacks. Book took eight sacks and threw two interceptions in his only start as a rookie while Hill proved to be more of a spork than a Swiss Army knife in 2021. If the market for Winston isn’t too hot, bringing him back would be the best-case scenario for New Orleans.
Wide Receiver
It’s no longer a safe bet to lock Thomas in for 100 receptions as a floor and even if it was, New Orleans desperately needs an explosive outside receiver to compliment him. This need will only increase if Winston comes back as the gunslinger is at his best when launching mortars to receivers 20 yards downfield.
Safety
Marcus Williams has played in and started 76 games since being drafted by the Saints in 2017. If they had the cap space, bringing him back would be a priority. P.J. Williams, a versatile defender and possible replacement for Marcus, is also a free agent. New Orleans has had plenty of success finding immediate starters in their secondary through the draft and could take that approach at safety this year.
Coaching Changes
Payton’s retirement caused a massive reshuffling of the coaching staff in New Orleans. All major replacements were made in-house so there shouldn’t be too much in the way of new philosophies. With Allen taking over as head coach, Ryan Nielsen and Kris Richard are stepping up as co-defensive coordinators. Nielsen was previously the assistant head coach and defensive line coach while Richard was the secondary coach. Both men will still play large roles in the units they coached last year.
It’s easy to assume that Payton will take the Saints’ offensive creativity with him into retirement, but if anyone is going to be able to carry the torch, it will be Pete Carmichael. The Saints offensive coordinator joined the team in 2006 and was promoted to his current role in 2009. Carmichael has also called plays in three different seasons, 2011, 2012, and 2016. Drew Brees led the league in passing yards in all three seasons. Carmichael won’t have the luxury of coaching a first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback this time around but he has all of the experience necessary to coach up Hill, Wintson, or a yet-to-be-named passer.
Offseason Outlook
Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Davenport are next on the list of possible restructures. Davenport is on the fifth-year option and New Orleans has opted to restructure their former first-round picks in similar spots in the past. They could also look to extend Davenport, who is coming off a career year that featured nine sacks. After this, the Saints can look to pursue Winston. When Winston was a free agent last year, there weren’t many reports of teams interested in him. If that’s the case again, they should be able to bring him back, possibly on a multi-year deal.
Winston played well in his first season as the Saints’ starter and is the obvious choice for New Orleans if they can afford him. Assuming that happens, giving him more chances to make an impact will be important. Despite making strides as a passer, Winston was limited to 25 pass attempts per game through six contests. The offense was good with him as a starter but the return of Thomas and a possible addition via the draft will make it far more potent. Add a boost in volume and New Orleans could have a high-end passing game to complement their dynamic defense.
