Months and months of fantasy preparation were poured in and all of that work is about to be put to the test as Week 1 of the NFL season is finally upon us. The NFL is inherently a fluid game, with things in constant motion. What was yesterday isn’t always tomorrow in the middle of the season, so with a fresh start to a new season, taking an evidence-based approach is easier said than done. For those that have followed this article for the previous two seasons, you’ll know the accuracy ramps as we roll on, but that doesn’t mean we have to throw everything out from the past when looking ahead.
Still, the goal of this article is to provide a statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats. Also, while it’s not penned in a true start/sit column fashion, we’re looking to aid the weekly decisions you face.
Carolina vs. Denver
| Panthers | Rank | @ | Broncos | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Spread | 3 | ||
| 22.3 | Implied Total | 19.3 | ||
| 66.6 | 8 | Plays/Gm | 65.7 | 13 |
| 65.2 | 20 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.5 | 22 |
| 49.8% | 2 | Rush% | 40.2% | 17 |
| 50.2% | 31 | Pass% | 59.8% | 16 |
| 33.9% | 2 | Opp. Rush % | 37.9% | 7 |
| 66.1% | 31 | Opp. Pass % | 62.1% | 26 |
- Denver and Carolina both allowed a league low 6.2 yards per pass attempt to opponents last season.
- Trevor Siemian averaged under 7.0 yards per attempt in 19 of his 29 collegiate games at Northwestern in which he attempted double digit passes. He threw multiple touchdowns in just four of those games.
- Demaryius Thomas was on a -1.4 reception and -15.4 yards per full game pace without Peyton Manning as his quarterback last season, while catching 11.1 percent less of his targets.
- Emmanuel Sanders held a -2.4 targets full game pace without Manning at quarterback with an increased catch rate of 6.3 percent.
- Running backs saw a league high 9.3 targets per game facing the Panthers last season.
- Last season, Denver allowed a league low 24.5 yards per drive to opponents. When these two teams met in the Super Bowl, Carolina posted 18.2 yards per drive, 13.9 yards fewer than their average drive for the season.
- C.J. Anderson had 27 touches against the Panthers in the Super Bowl, but 16 came in the second half with another 11 coming the 4th quarter while ahead.
- Denver ran for just 60.5 yards on the ground in losses last season, the lowest total in the league.
- His 9.1 fantasy points in the Super Bowl would’ve been Cam Newton‘s fewest points scored in a game last season.
- The Broncos allowed just one 100-yard rusher and just three backs to eclipse 100 yards from scrimmage all of 2015.
Trust: Greg Olsen (In a game that doesn’t project to feature a lot of scoring, trust options are thin, but because Denver is so good versus receivers, tight ends naturally get opportunities funneled to them)
Bust: Cam Newton (it’s unlikely you paired Newton with another quarterback in drafts and his rushing volume alone is more than capable of salvaging any week, but if we’re holding Newton to the expectancy of turning in weekly top-12 performances, this is a game where I don’t see a ton of avenues for him to hit his ceiling), Trevor Siemian (first NFL start coming against the NFC Super Bowl representative, hard to come in with any level of confidence), Emmanuel Sanders (there’s not enough here for me to have faith in Siemian doing enough to support two viable fantasy options in the passing game), Virgil Green (there will be weeks to get Green into lineups, but not against Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson), Kelvin Benjamin/Ted Ginn/Devin Funchess (no team allowed fewer points to receivers than Denver in 2015 and their secondary comes back full strength)
Reasonable Return: Jonathan Stewart (far from an ideal paper play and Stewart is likely an RB3 for many rosters. In that case, there’s no need to push him into lineups, but I see this game going as the inverse for these two teams as the Super Bowl went, meaning Stewart should see enough second half volume to be floated as a flex option in a rough spot), C.J. Anderson (we know Denver wants to play this game tight and Anderson should be the focal point of making it happen. Carolina shouldn’t run completely with this one, keeping Anderson involved and he’s viable out of the backfield), Demaryius Thomas (while Denver is unlikely to score tons of points to float their skill players, the Panthers are starting two rookie cornerbacks. Thomas seemed to be the preferred target for Siemian in the preseason between he and Sanders)
Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta
| Buccaneers | Rank | @ | Falcons | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 22.3 | Implied Total | 25.3 | ||
| 63.5 | 21 | Plays/Gm | 67.1 | 7 |
| 65.3 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.2 | 6 |
| 44.7% | 9 | Rush% | 39.2% | 19 |
| 55.3% | 24 | Pass% | 60.8% | 14 |
| 44.6% | 27 | Opp. Rush % | 41.8% | 19 |
| 55.4% | 6 | Opp. Pass % | 58.2% | 14 |
- Mike Evans was targeted on 32.2 percent of his routes with Vincent Jackson inactive as opposed to a 25.6 mark with Jackson on the field.
- Atlanta allowed a rushing touchdown once every 20.8 rushing attempts, the highest rate in the league.
- Only Denver allowed fewer collective fantasy points per game (24.9) to wide receivers than Atlanta (25.9) last season.
- Doug Martin led the league in runs of 20 or more yards (14).
- Martin averaged 5.2 yards per carry and 101 rushing yards per game in 10 games against teams in the bottom half of rushing points per attempt last season (Atlanta was 31st) as opposed to 4.1 yards per carry and 65.3 yards per game against defenses in the top half.
- No team allowed more receptions per game (7.0) to opposing backfields last season than Atlanta.
- Julio Jones has at least 90 receiving yards in four straight games against the Buccaneers and has scored 17 or more fantasy points in seven of his eight career games facing them.
- Jones scored 114.4 points from the slot last season after scoring 107.1 points combined from the slot over his first four seasons to start his career.
- Atlanta’s defense had the lowest sack rate in the league last season at 3.3 percent.
- 42 percent of Jameis Winston‘s fantasy points scored against the Falcons (15.9 of 38.1) last season came from rushing production.
- Tampa Bay allowed only four top-12 scoring running backs all last year and only three running backs to hit 100 yards from scrimmage. Two of each were both times they faced Devonta Freeman.
Trust: Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman (while Tevin Coleman received enough first team work in the preseason to throw a wrench in Freeman seeing 20 plus touches, Freeman’s receiving prowess is more viable for sustaining offense than Coleman’s rushing against the underrated Tampa Bay rush defense from a year ago), Doug Martin
Bust: Mike Evans (Desmond Trufant began shadowing at the end of last season and could do the same here. I am not running from Evans in lineups still, but he has posted just one top-20 scoring week in four games facing the Falcons to start his career. Even when he posted a 5/61/1 line against Atlanta last season, it was good for just low-end WR2 totals), Jacob Tamme (he had one incredible game and one down one against Tampa last year, but Mohamed Sanu may not leave many other targets available outside of Jones and Freeman)
Reasonable Return: Charles Sims (between Atlanta’s soft front and their linebackers in coverage, Sims should turn in a solid flex floor), Matt Ryan (volume should be here as Ryan threw 45 passes in each of the meetings between these two last year, but we just need to see his touchdown totals bounce back before we start anticipating ceiling moments as he threw multiple scores just six times last year and three or more just one time), Jameis Winston (even with Tampa running their offense with more pace this preseason than last, I expect QB2 numbers from Winston this weekend given Atlanta’s stingy defense of receivers, expecting Martin to have success and Vegas having the Bucs with one of the lower team totals of the weekend), Mohamed Sanu (pass attempts should be in abundance to have enough left over for Sanu), Vincent Jackson (could have the passing game run through him by default to open the season and if Tampa fails to run the ball adequately, gets an added bonus)
Minnesota vs. Tennessee
| Vikings | Rank | @ | Titans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 | Spread | 2 | ||
| 21.5 | Implied Total | 19.5 | ||
| 60.5 | 31 | Plays/Gm | 61 | 28 |
| 63.0 | 13 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.8 | 12 |
| 48.9% | 3 | Rush% | 38.0% | 22 |
| 51.1% | 30 | Pass% | 62.0% | 11 |
| 41.0% | 16 | Opp. Rush % | 46.0% | 29 |
| 59.0% | 17 | Opp. Pass % | 54.0% | 4 |
- No team faced fewer passing attempts per game last season than the Titans at 31.4 and no team attempted fewer passes per game than the Vikings at 28.4.
- Minnesota averaged 25.4 pass attempts per game in wins last season (30th) while attempting 35 passes in losses. That 9.6 attempt per game increase was the 7th highest disparity in the league last season.
- Despite facing the fewest number of passes, the Titans allowed a touchdown pass once every 14.8 pass attempts, better than only the Saints at 12.1.
- The Vikings averaged 15.2 more rushing attempts and 90.2 more rushing yards per game in wins rather than losses last season, the largest margin for both in the NFL.
- Adrian Peterson had 20 or more touches in 12 games last season, the most in the league.
- Stefon Diggs was a top-30 scoring wide receiver in five of the seven games in which he eclipsed just five targets.
- The Titans averaged 21.3 points per game with Marcus Mariota active last season as opposed to 10.8 points per game without him.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Tajae Sharpe was targeted on 34.3 percent of his routes this preseason, while Andre Johnson, Rishard Matthews and Harry Douglas averaged a 25 percent target rate combined.
- Although he averaged just 2.8 yards per carry on runs behind or off tackle on 110 attempts, DeMarco Murray averaged 4.6 yards on runs guard to guard last year, behind only Spencer Ware, Thomas Rawls and Adrian Peterson for all backs with 50 or more such attempts. That 1.8 yards per carry loss was the biggest difference for any running back that qualified for both fields.
- After Mike Mularkey took over for Ken Whisenhunt in Week 9, 56 percent of the Titans’ running back runs were run from guard to guard.
Trust: Adrian Peterson (this game features two of the slowest paced teams from a year ago, but Peterson should dominate touches out of the box with the Vikings transitioning from the loss of Teddy Bridgewater)
Bust: Delanie Walker (Minnesota allowed just three tight ends inside of the top-10 weekly scorers all of 2015), Shaun Hill/Sam Bradford (not a poor matchup, but unlikely that whoever starts will be asked to do any real lifting), Tajae Sharpe/Rishard Matthews (hard to vault anyone in this passing game above fringe WR3 status against this secondary), Marcus Mariota (starting quarterbacks facing the Vikings finished in the bottom half of weekly scoring 10 times last season), Derrick Henry (hard to gauge his true pitch count or if he’ll see any pass catching opportunities)
Reasonable Return: Stefon Diggs (even with the forced quarterback change, Diggs has a strong enough matchup to use him as a WR3/flex), DeMarco Murray (familiar scheme change already appeared to reinvigorate Murray in the preseason. Pass catching ability gives Murray some safety if game script becomes unfavorable), Kyle Rudolph (Tennessee allowed nine top-12 scoring tight ends and 11 touchdowns to the position a year ago. Rudy is a lower end play if you’re thin and chasing a score)
Cleveland vs. Philadelphia
| Browns | Rank | @ | Eagles | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spread | -4 | ||
| 18.5 | Implied Total | 22.5 | ||
| 65.1 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 68.9 | 2 |
| 62.4 | 9 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 71.8 | 32 |
| 36.5% | 25 | Rush% | 40.2% | 18 |
| 63.5% | 8 | Pass% | 59.8% | 15 |
| 45.9% | 28 | Opp. Rush % | 41.6% | 18 |
| 54.1% | 5 | Opp. Pass % | 58.4% | 15 |
- Cleveland trailed for 70.9 percent of their offensive plays last season, highest rate in the league. They trailed for 80.9 percent of their snaps in the second half of games.
- Gary Barnidge averaged 11.4 points per game last season without Josh McCown as opposed to 18.3 in games he was active.
- Only the Saints allowed more red zone opportunities per game (4.1) than the Browns (3.9) last season.
- 51 percent of the running back points scored against the Browns were from rushing output, the highest rate in the league (league average was 39.5 percent).
- Only David Johnson scored more rushing points per carry (.85) than Ryan Mathews (.84) last season.
- Last season, tight ends were targeted a league low 86 times facing Cleveland, but the Browns allowed a touchdown to tight ends once every 8.6 targets, the highest rate in the league.
- Jordan Matthews scored 98 percent of his points from the slot last season, the highest rate of any receiver.
- Cleveland allowed 12.5 yards per completion last season, highest in the league.
- No defense was on the field more than the Eagles last season at 1,408 plays (48 more than the next highest team). In comparison, the Kansas City defense attached to new Eagles coach Doug Pederson faced 174 fewer offensive plays on the season.
Trust: Ryan Mathews (the Browns front seven is going to be a weekly target for backs and with the possibility that Carson Wentz could start creeping into the picture, Mathews should see tons of work to start off)
Bust: Jordan Matthews (the fact that he’s missed the entire preseason with Wentz has me concerned about them having symmetry to start), Carson Wentz (while this is as good of a paper play you could hope for in your first start, it’s hard for me to buy that Wentz had adequate reps to hit the ground running, nor do I believe he will be asked to carry the offense in this game), Gary Barnidge (the Eagles have steadily mushed tight ends over the past two seasons, allowing just nine top-10 scorers and seven touchdowns to the position over that span even with teams holding a play count advantage for production), Robert Griffin (he’s back to using his legs more than the last time we saw him in the field, but on the road with limited weaponry and Philly expected to grind things on the ground could leave him with a smaller window for success), Corey Coleman (there’s hardly enough meat on the bone here to thrust him into lineups while your team is at full strength)
Reasonable Return: Isaiah Crowell (the Eagles were gashed on the ground a year ago, but teams no longer have the advantage of a high tempo pace now that Chip Kelly is out of town and script. With Wentz starting, there’s less room for the script to completely run Crowell out of plans), Darren Sproles (he could very well lead the team in targets in this game since the Eagles are unlikely to need to force things on offense), Zach Ertz (past Ertz and Sproles, it’s hard to be overly attached to anyone else in this passing game), Duke Johnson (touchdown issues are always going keep Johnson from getting full trust treatment, but he should consistently hold flex status weekly), Terrelle Pryor (if you’re going to swing on any player outside of Johnson and Barnidge here, Pryor and Griffin had a connection in preseason and Griffin will take some shots at splash plays)
Cincinnati vs. New York (AFC)
| Bengals | Rank | @ | Jets | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | ||
| 22 | Implied Total | 19.5 | ||
| 63.1 | 25 | Plays/Gm | 67.1 | 6 |
| 64.8 | 19 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.3 | 14 |
| 45.8% | 7 | Rush% | 41.7% | 13 |
| 54.2% | 26 | Pass% | 58.3% | 20 |
| 33.9% | 1 | Opp. Rush % | 36.8% | 5 |
| 66.1% | 32 | Opp. Pass % | 63.2% | 28 |
- Only the Panthers allowed fewer passing points per attempt (.305) than the Bengals (.310) last season.
- The Bengals ranked 2nd in the league in points allowed per drive (1.31) while the Jets ranked 4th (1.35).
- The Bengals scored the third most red zone touchdowns (38) while the Jets allowed the fewest (14) last season.
- A.J. Green has faced Darrelle Revis just one time in his career (Week 5, 2014). In that game Green caught five passes for 81 yards and a touchdown, catching three of five targets for 64 yards in Revis’ coverage per Pro Football Focus.
- The Jets allowed a rushing touchdown once every 93.3 rushing attempts last season, stingiest in the league.
- In seven games against defenses ranked inside the top-10 against the run last season, Jeremy Hill averaged 21.9 fewer rushing yards and 3.6 fewer fantasy points.
- In those games, Gio Bernard saw increases of 2.6 targets and 1.9 receptions per game.
- 59.6 percent of the fantasy points scored by running backs against the Jets came through receiving, the highest dependency in the league (league average was 46.3 percent).
- The Bengals allowed 6.4 receptions per game to opposing backfields (T-4th most) and 57.1 percent of the fantasy points scored by backs against them were through the air, behind only the aforementioned Jets.
- Cincinnati allowed a touchdown once every 28.9 targets to wide receivers in 2015 (6th best). Eric Decker scored once every 11.0 targets while Brandon Marshall scored once every 12.4.
Trust: Giovani Bernard (the Jets should force the Bengals to throw more than they want and with Revis on Green, the Jets’ linebackers not strong in coverage, and no Eifert, Bernard could have one of his highest touch games on the season to start), Matt Forte (with the Bengals strong against receivers and no tight end presence to speak of, Forte should catch a lot of passes)
Bust: Jeremy Hill (this is the type of game in which if Hill doesn’t find the paint, you could be looking at a very low number), A.J. Green (Revis isn’t the Revis of yesterday, but he was still sensational last year before suffering multiple injuries. By no means am I fading Green in lineups, but I am expecting WR2 type of output as the baseline to work up from), Ryan Fitzpatrick (volume will be here, but the Bengals allowed multiple passing touchdowns just four times all of 2015 and just three 300-yard passers), Andy Dalton (both quarterbacks should have the benefit of both opposing defenses creating volume, but neither team is projected to score buckets of points, either)
Reasonable Return: Bilal Powell (echoing thoughts on Forte and Bernard for Powell, this sets up for him to be utilized effectively), Eric Decker/Brandon Marshall (I prefer Decker outright as he has the better matchup on the interior, but the Jets’ shallow ball distribution keeps all of their skill players in play), Tyler Boyd (per Pro Football Focus, no corner gave up more yards in the slot than Buster Skrine last year and targets could naturally find Boyd with Green drawing the attention of Revis), Brandon LaFell (ditto to LaFell, who should inherently see volume his way on Skrine and Marcus Williams)
Oakland vs. New Orleans
| Raiders | Rank | @ | Saints | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spread | -1 | ||
| 25.0 | Implied Total | 26.0 | ||
| 63.1 | 24 | Plays/Gm | 68.5 | 4 |
| 67.8 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.3 | 7 |
| 36.7% | 24 | Rush% | 36.2% | 26 |
| 63.3% | 9 | Pass% | 63.8% | 7 |
| 37.4% | 6 | Opp. Rush % | 42.3% | 23 |
| 62.6% | 27 | Opp. Pass % | 57.7% | 10 |
- The Saints scored 13.8 more points per game at home last season than on the road, the largest increase in the league.
- Drew Brees threw 23 of his 32 touchdown passes last season while at home, most in the league.
- Over his final eight games last season, Derek Carr ranked 30th in yards per attempt (6.3), 19th in yards per game (236.6) and 20th in points per game (15.0).
- The Saints allowed 383.6 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season, which would’ve been the 6th highest scoring individual fantasy quarterback ever.
- Eight quarterbacks to face the Saints were top-5 weekly scorers at their position with seven finishing among the top-3 scorers.
- New Orleans allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 13 games last season, tying the 1999 Saints for most times in an NFL season.
- New Orleans allowed 38.4 yards per drive last season, the highest of any team since the 1970 merger.
- 26.9 percent of the fantasy points scored by wide receivers against the Saints came through touchdown production, the highest rate in the league.
- The Saints allowed a pass play of 40 or more yards in all but three games last season.
- No back had a higher percentage of his team’s rushing attempts (71.9 percent) or rushing yardage (73.2 percent) than Latavius Murray last season.
Trust: Drew Brees, Derek Carr, Brandin Cooks (Sean Smith has the size and length to give Cooks issues at the line of scrimmage, but not the straight line speed to consistently challenge him there), Latavius Murray (no team allowed more points per game to running backs last season than the Saints), Michael Crabtree (Crabtree was the preferred target in the red zone over Amari Cooper and gets a far better individual matchup against P.J. Williams)
Bust: Michael Thomas (Thomas may play over Snead in 2WR sets as he did in the preseason, but no matter where he goes, he’ll run into a worse matchup with Sean Smith and David Amerson than Snead will draw when the Saints go with three wideouts)
Reasonable Return: Amari Cooper (Delvin Breaux was the sole bright spot for the Saints secondary, but you’re not running away since the target distribution is shallow for Oakland and they’ll be putting points on the board), Mark Ingram (the Saints’ interior offensive line should have trouble in this one, but Ingram was a rock steady floor play last season with just one week below RB19 with his receiving usage and lock on the goal line looks), Coby Fleener, Willie Snead (he’ll draw D.J. Hayden in the slot), Clive Walford (Oakland’s issues versus tight ends were steadily noted, but Walford may not see the requisite target volume to cover if he fails to score a touchdown)
San Diego vs. Kansas City
| Chargers | Rank | @ | Chiefs | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spread | -7 | ||
| 18.8 | Implied Total | 25.8 | ||
| 68.8 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 61.1 | 26 |
| 59.9 | 2 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.2 | 18 |
| 35.7% | 27 | Rush% | 45.9% | 6 |
| 64.3% | 6 | Pass% | 54.1% | 27 |
| 43.5% | 25 | Opp. Rush % | 36.5% | 3 |
| 56.5% | 8 | Opp. Pass % | 63.5% | 30 |
- No team allowed more rushing points per attempt last season than the Chargers at .71. No team scored more rushing points per attempt than the Chiefs did at .72 (league average was .56).
- Spencer Ware averaged 5.4 yards per carry last season on runs guard to guard, the highest yards per attempt of any back with 50 or more such carries. San Diego allowed 4.3 yards per carry on those runs, the 8th highest clip in the league.
- Travis Kelce had just three top-6 scoring weeks all of 2015 with eight at TE14 or lower and was the TE14 and TE31 in his two games facing the Chargers last season.
- Alex Smith averaged 11.4 fewer pass attempts per game when the Chiefs were favored last season.
- Last season the Chiefs ranked second in points per game on the road (28.3), but 21st in points per game at home with 20.6.
- San Diego allowed just three 100-yard receivers on the season last year, tied for the fewest in the league.
- The Chiefs allowed just 108.8 total yards to the running back position per game, the third fewest behind only Seattle and the Jets.
- Philip Rivers’ scoring finishes when facing the Chiefs over the past two years have been QB27, QB27, QB30 and QB20.
- Rivers has just 15 passing touchdowns in 10 career games at Arrowhead.
- Only the Cowboys allowed fewer points to opposing tight ends than the Chiefs (9.3 points per game) and the Chiefs allowed just two top-12 scoring tight ends on the season, the fewest in the league.
- Danny Woodhead was the RB58 both weeks when facing the Chiefs last season, totaling just four receptions in those two games for 17 yards.
- Keenan Allen ranked 7th in the league in yards per game (90.6 yards) prior to injury. The Chiefs allowed 175.4 yards per game to wide receivers, 10th most in the league.
Trust: Keenan Allen (should see a plethora of targets and if he moves into the slot at all, he will have a major advantage), Spencer Ware (everything the Chiefs have suggested is that Ware will be the workhorse in Week 1 and the matchup couldn’t be better as a home favorite against one of league’s worst run defenses. He can still do a lot sharing touches if that were to happen and will get the goal line opportunities)
Bust: Jeremy Maclin (the skinny passing tree for Kansas City will keep him in play, but I’m looking at more of a WR3 week as the ground floor against a formidable secondary), Melvin Gordon, Philip Rivers (on top of his bugaboos in Kansas City, only the Dolphins have a lower implied team total than the Chargers), Travis Kelce (similar to Maclin, you know you’re at least getting targets based on Kelce being the second option, but the Chiefs’ passing game is inherently a smaller pie and they shouldn’t be pressed into any increase in volume in this one)
Reasonable Return: Alex Smith (you know what you’re getting here. Since joining the Chiefs, Smith has scored in the single digits just eight times, but hit 20 or more points just 13 times), Danny Woodhead (despite his lack of success and involvement against the Chiefs last season, on paper this still looks like the type of climate where he should deliver flex returns)
Buffalo vs. Baltimore
| Bills | Rank | @ | Ravens | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 20.8 | Implied Total | 23.8 | ||
| 63.5 | 20 | Plays/Gm | 67.7 | 5 |
| 63.6 | 16 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.5 | 11 |
| 50.1% | 1 | Rush% | 36.4% | 28 |
| 49.9% | 32 | Pass% | 63.6% | 5 |
| 38.7% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 41.8% | 20 |
| 61.3% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 58.2% | 13 |
- Tyrod Taylor rushed for 40 or more yards in nine of 14 games last season.
- Sammy Watkins led all receivers in yards per target (10.9) and was second in points per target (1.65) last season.
- Watkins caught a touchdown once every 10.7 targets last season (4th of all receivers). Baltimore allowed a touchdown once every 13.0 targets to receivers, the second highest rate outside of the Saints (11.0).
- The Bills averaged 5.7 yards per play as an offense last season, 6th highest in the league.
- Buffalo ranked first in the league in rushing attempts per game in wins (35.8) and losses (27.9) last season.
- LeSean McCoy ranked 11th in points per game (14.9), 8th in both yards from scrimmage (98.9) and touches (19.6) per game last season.
- No team scored more touchdowns outside of the red zone than the Bills (24) last season.
- Both Buffalo and Baltimore allowed 16 different top-24 scoring receivers last season, tied for the third most in the league.
- Baltimore attempted the most passes per game (42.2) last season, while teams threw 37.6 times per game (9th most) facing Buffalo.
- The Ravens had the lowest sack rate allowed in the league last season at 3.4 percent.
- Kamar Aiken had 23.9 percent of the Ravens’ targets after Steve Smith was lost for the season after seeing just 13.7 percent prior.
Trust: Sammy Watkins (the Ravens are healthier on the back end, but still exploitable), LeSean McCoy (Baltimore was middle of the pack in rush defense a year ago in just about every efficiency metric, but McCoy has a stranglehold on major opportunity in one of the most run heavy offenses in the league)
Bust: Charles Clay (the Ravens allowed just three touchdowns to tight ends all of last season), Ravens backfield (as home favorites and with Marcell Dareus suspended, the Ravens’ running game has some appeal in totality, but with the unknown split of Terrance West, Justin Forsett and Buck Allen, it makes it hard to latch onto pushing any of the chips here into your starting lineups), Mike Wallace (he’ll find Stephon Gilmore or Ronald Darby on nearly all of his snaps), Steve Smith (it’s hard to see Smith being unleashed with the workload he received last season coming off of injury)
Reasonable Return: Tyrod Taylor (Vegas is suggesting we use caution with Taylor as a ceiling play, but we know we have the rushing floor always in play and the play volume could be higher than expected if Baltimore is anywhere as close to pass heavy as they were in 2015), Joe Flacco (with uncertainty still clouding the backfield rotation, the Ravens could fall back into their pass heavy ways of last season), Kamar Aiken (the Bills’ boundary corners are the strength of this defense, but they are vulnerable to interior options)
Chicago vs. Houston
| Bears | Rank | @ | Texans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spread | -6 | ||
| 19 | Implied Total | 25 | ||
| 64 | 18 | Plays/Gm | 69.9 | 1 |
| 61.3 | 3 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.6 | 4 |
| 45.7% | 8 | Rush% | 41.8% | 12 |
| 54.3% | 25 | Pass% | 58.2% | 21 |
| 44.1% | 26 | Opp. Rush % | 40.6% | 14 |
| 55.9% | 7 | Opp. Pass % | 59.5% | 19 |
- The Texans allowed just 25.0 yards per opponents’ drive last season, better than everyone except the Broncos (24.5).
- Alshon Jeffery was targeted on 32.7 percent of his routes last season, the highest rate for all wide receivers.
- The Texans closed last season not allowing any passer to hit 250 passing yards over their final nine games, the longest ongoing streak in the league. The next highest was three games.
- Jeremy Langford averaged 21.3 touches in three games as the lead back last season, which would’ve ranked 4th in the league. Matt Forte averaged 20.2, which ranked 5th.
- Houston attempted 45.6 pass attempts per game in losses (most in the league) as opposed to 33.3 per game in wins (17th).
- In those wins, DeAndre Hopkins still averaged 11.7 targets per game, which still would’ve been good for 4th in the NFL per game.
- Brock Osweiler completed just 29.2 percent (14 of 48) of his throws 15 or more yards downfield last season, as opposed to 68.7 percent underneath. That -39.5 percentage point gap was the largest disparity in the NFL (league average was -27.8 percent).
- Texans lead running backs averaged 16.2 carries per game last season while Lamar Miller has hit 16 carries in just 12 of 61 career games played.
Trust: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Brock Osweiler (the Bears’ defense is begging for teams to spread them out and stack points via the passing game. The only real concerns here are that overall pace may be very shallow and the Houston offensive line may not afford a lot of time to set up shot plays), Lamar Miller (the Texans’ offensive line enters the season shorthanded from what we expected this summer and the Bears’ front seven does present a challenge, but Houston is a big home favorite with a modestly high team total to aid volume and Miller can tack on points via the air)
Bust: Jay Cutler (Adam Gase, Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett are gone and the Bears are road dogs with a minuscule total against one of the league’s best pass defenses from a year ago), Kevin White (looked like a player that hasn’t played football in over a year this preseason, so he’s going to need some buildup and a more favorable spot before using him), Zach Miller (he missed nearly the entire preseason with a concussion and Houston ranked 24th in points allowed to tight ends and allowed just three touchdowns to the position all season long after allowing two to Travis Kelce to start off the year)
Reasonable Return: Jeremy Langford (this is not an ideal spot, but outside of Alshon Jeffery, the only bankable opportunity play for Chicago is Langford), Alshon Jeffery (even in a tougher spot, targets should flow near the par they did a year ago, but it’s hard to see Alshon as a top-12 play this week)
Green Bay vs. Jacksonville
| Packers | Rank | @ | Jaguars | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5 | Spread | 5 | ||
| 26.5 | Implied Total | 21.5 | ||
| 66.2 | 9 | Plays/Gm | 63.2 | 23 |
| 63.7 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 68.9 | 30 |
| 41.1% | 15 | Rush% | 35.0% | 31 |
| 58.9% | 18 | Pass% | 65.0% | 2 |
| 39.8% | 11 | Opp. Rush % | 42.1% | 21 |
| 60.2% | 22 | Opp. Pass % | 57.9% | 12 |
- The Packers allowed just eight top-24 scoring wide receivers last season, tied with Seattle and San Diego for the fewest in the league. Allen Robinson (10) and Allen Hurns (6) combined for 16 top-24 scoring weeks last season.
- Hurns caught a touchdown pass once every 10.5 targets last season, third in the league behind Doug Baldwin (7.4) and Ted Ginn (9.7).
- Robinson led the league in targets from the 10-yard line and in last season with 18.
- Only Tom Brady (11) had more top-12 scoring weeks on the season last year than Blake Bortles (10).
- While trailing in the 4th quarter, Bortles threw 13 touchdown passes, tied for the most ever in a season for a quarterback with Eli Manning in 2011.
- Bortles (92) and Aaron Rodgers (91) ranked first and second in red zone pass attempts last season.
- Green Bay had the third highest sack rate as a defense last season at 7.5 percent. Jacksonville ranked 25th in sack rate as an offense at 7.8 percent of drop backs.
- Despite allowing the 11th most rushing attempts to running backs last season, Jacksonville was 21st in rushing yardage allowed to the position and only allowed five running backs to reach 75-yards rushing on the ground.
Trust: Aaron Rodgers (even with the Jaguars expected to take a step forward, Rodgers is coming in fully stocked with a big road team total), Jared Cook (Cook was used often away from the line of scrimmage and may be the real answer to the Packers’ questions at their third receiver spot. Telvin Smith and Paul Posluszny are good linebackers but can be vulnerable in coverage as Jacksonville allowed the 5th most receiving yards to tight ends last season), Randall Cobb (coming into the season 100 percent and with Jordy Nelson back, the middle will be open once again for Cobb), Allen Robinson (the Packers were beaten up more by tweener types in Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, Jeremy Maclin and Doug Baldwin last year as far as giving up points to wide receivers, but the volume and splash play opportunities should still be there as Robinson not only did work near the paint, but also led the NFL in with 31 receptions of 20 plus yards)
Bust: Allen Hurns (I’m looking at Robinson and Julius Thomas as doing the bulk of the scoring through the air)
Reasonable Return: Jordy Nelson (if he hadn’t missed the entire preseason after such a long layoff, this would be a spot to go wheels up, but best to temper expectations as he returns), Eddie Lacy (I don’t love this game for Lacy as I believe Jacksonville is setting itself up to be a big time passing funnel as a defense, but with the Packers holding such a high total, Lacy could run into a few money touches), Blake Bortles (this is a tailor-made Bortles spot from a year ago to where he can chase points), Julius Thomas (the Packers were fine versus tight ends overall, but they really were opponent driven, allowing double digit points to Travis Kelce, Antonio Gates, Greg Olsen, Martellus Bennett and Ladarius Green), T.J. Yeldon (with Ivory now out, Yeldon is a safe floor option with upside)
Miami vs. Seattle
| Dolphins | Rank | @ | Seahawks | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | Spread | -10.5 | ||
| 16.8 | Implied Total | 27.3 | ||
| 61.1 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 64.2 | 17 |
| 67.2 | 26 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.3 | 1 |
| 35.2% | 29 | Rush% | 46.7% | 4 |
| 64.8% | 4 | Pass% | 53.3% | 29 |
| 46.8% | 32 | Opp. Rush % | 40.5% | 13 |
| 53.3% | 1 | Opp. Pass % | 59.5% | 20 |
- Seattle allowed a passing touchdown just once every 39.1 attempts last season, best in the league.
- Seattle has allowed multiple passing touchdowns to a quarterback at home just six times over the past four seasons and just once (Carson Palmer) last year.
- The Seahawks allowed just 65.1 rushing yards per game to running backs last season, second fewest in the league next to the Jets (63.4).
- 52.4 percent of Arian Foster‘s runs last season went for two yards or less (6th highest rate in the league) while 15.9 percent went for negative yardage (7th highest rate).
- 73.6 percent of Foster’s scoring last season came from receiving output after averaging 34.9 percent per season for his career prior to 2015.
- Jarvis Landry was a top-20 scorer in just three of his eight games facing pass defenses ranked in the top half of passing points allowed per attempt, but was a top-30 scorer in six of those eight games.
- The Dolphins allowed 11 top-12 scoring running backs last season, the most in the league.
- Miami allowed 158.8 total yards per game to running backs last season, the third most in the league.
- Thomas Rawls averaged 6.6 yards per carry (79 for 499 yards) on runs off either tackle or end last season, the highest rate in the league for any back with 50 or more attempts.
- Russell Wilson‘s 12 games with 30 or fewer passing attempts led the NFL last season, but he led the league in passing points per attempt at .584 passing points per pass.
- Including the playoffs, the Seahawks’ target distribution to their wide receivers after Jimmy Graham was lost for the season was Doug Baldwin at 24.3 percent, Tyler Lockett 19.6 percent and Jermaine Kearse at 15.3 percent.
- 31.2 percent of Doug Baldwin‘s points came through touchdowns, second to only Ted Ginn (32.6 percent) last season.
Trust: Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, Christine Michael (I’m a believer that Michael will get the most carries this weekend if the game plays out as expected. Seattle averaged 28.5 non-Wilson rushing attempts in wins last season, so if this game goes as suggested, Michael should see enough opportunity against a poor run defense)
Bust: Ryan Tannehill, Kenny Stills, Jay Ajayi, Arian Foster (Foster may tack on some receiving production, but also may lose those snaps to preservation if the game is completely off center in the second half), Jermaine Kearse (Kearse is the riskiest play of the group as he saw more than five targets just twice after Graham was out, but he is in play to score a touchdown)
Reasonable Return: Thomas Rawls (even if his touches are capped to begin the year, this is a matchup where he can do a lot while governed), Tyler Lockett (although he’s consistently played behind Jermaine Kearse from last season to this preseason in terms of snap counts, Lockett has still been utilized more than Kearse in the passing game), Jarvis Landry (a master of turning in salvageable PPR lines even in the darkest of outlooks and team outcomes)
New York (NFC) vs. Dallas
| Giants | Rank | @ | Cowboys | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spread | -1 | ||
| 22.5 | Implied Total | 23.5 | ||
| 65.8 | 10 | Plays/Gm | 60.6 | 29 |
| 69.1 | 31 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.3 | 8 |
| 38.3% | 21 | Rush% | 42.1% | 10 |
| 61.7% | 12 | Pass% | 57.9% | 23 |
| 40.2% | 12 | Opp. Rush % | 46.1% | 30 |
| 59.8% | 21 | Opp. Pass % | 53.9% | 3 |
- The Giants allowed 12 top-12 scoring tight ends on the season, the most in the league.
- No team allowed more receptions per game to opposing tight ends than the Giants at 6.3. Dallas allowed the fewest in the league at 3.8 per game.
- Jason Witten‘s past seven games against the Giants, he’s finished as the TE1, TE4, TE3, TE27, TE4, TE5 and TE7.
- In 2015, Dallas games featured on average 122.9 combined plays per game, the fewest in the NFL.
- Two of Eli Manning‘s three lowest scoring games last season came against the Cowboys, finishing as the QB30 and QB25 those weeks. It was the only two games in which he failed to throw a single touchdown.
- Rashad Jennings received at least 60 percent of the team carries in each of the Giants’ final four games last season game after averaging 40 percent through the first 12 weeks. During those weeks, Jennings was the RB21, RB14, RB19 and the RB1 in weekly scoring.
- 39 percent of the touchdowns scored against the Cowboys were on the ground, the third highest percentage in the league outside of Atlanta (49 percent) and San Francisco (47 percent).
- Dallas is 7-20 without Tony Romo since he became the full-time starter in 2007 and went 1-11 in 2015 with him inactive.
- In 2015, Dallas ranked 27th in the NFL in percentage of snaps behind on the scoreboard in the second half of games (66.5 percent), managed to be just 18th in rushing attempts as team and still ranked 9th in rushing yards (1,890) and 5th in yards per carry (4.6) as a team.
Trust: Rashad Jennings (Jennings has a hold on volume and goal line work now that he’s finally free of the quagmire of the Giants backfield), Jason Witten (linebacker play is still a major concern through all of the additions that Giants made on defense this offseason), Ezekiel Elliott (the Giants really upgraded on the defensive front this offseason, but Dallas’ strength can still counter that. Also, Dak Prescott and Elliott are more than familiar with using the option from their college days, adding another avenue for rushing production)
Bust: Sterling Shepard (in kind of a wait and see how his targets shake out situation on your roster and there may not be a lot left over for him if Beckham and Jennings hit), Terrance Williams (quarterback play was a problem, but Williams had just three top-30 scoring weeks all of last season while Dez Bryant was inactive), Shane Vereen (he had just five and seven touches against the Cowboys last season and it’s doubtful that the Giants find themselves in an overly negative script)
Reasonable Return: Eli Manning (pace is a potential concern, but Dallas is out Randy Gregory, DeMarcus Lawrence and Roland McClain to start the year), Odell Beckham (Beckham went along with Eli last season against Dallas, placing as the WR45 and WR50 in the two meeting last season, but Dallas has no pass rush and no boundary presence to contain him), Dak Prescott (how he will fare passing against more complicated defense remains to be seen and it’s in the lower range of outcomes that he throws 35 plus times, but his rushing output should float him to QB2 totals), Dez Bryant (playing through injury and the loss of Romo, Bryant was borderline unusable last season, but I do expect Dallas to move the ball in this game and at full health he’s always a threat to score near the paint)
Detroit vs. Indianapolis
| Lions | Rank | @ | Colts | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 23.8 | Implied Total | 27.3 | ||
| 64.4 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 65.8 | 11 |
| 62.4 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.0 | 25 |
| 34.4% | 32 | Rush% | 37.6% | 23 |
| 65.6% | 1 | Pass% | 62.4% | 10 |
| 42.9% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 42.2% | 22 |
| 57.1% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 57.8% | 11 |
- Detroit allowed a touchdown on 26.4 percent of opponent’s drives, the second highest rate in the league behind the Saints (32.4 percent).
- Donte Moncrief scored in five of his seven games playing with Andrew Luck while seeing 18.9 percent of the team targets as opposed to just one touchdown and 15.9 percent of the targets with other quarterbacks.
- Detroit allowed just 3.1 yards per carry on interior runs last season (guard to guard), the second lowest in the league next to Seattle (2.9 YPC).
- 65 percent of Frank Gore‘s rushing yards came on interior runs last season, the 6th highest rate for backs with 100 plus rushing attempts on the season.
- The Colts last 100-yard rusher in a game was Vick Ballard in Week 15 of 2012.
- Matt Stafford averaged 23.4 points per game with an average weekly finish of QB7 against teams in the bottom half of passing points allowed in 2015 (Indianapolis ranked 19th) as opposed to an average of 12.9 points and QB21 weekly finish in seven games against teams in the top half.
- The Colts allowed 40 pass plays of 25 or more yards last season, tied with the Giants for the most in the league.
- Only Carolina had a higher touchdown rate (69.5 percent) in the red zone than the Lions, who scored a touchdown on 69.4 percent of their red zone trips last season.
- 66.9 percent of Golden Tate‘s receiving yardage came after the catch, the second highest rate after Tavon Austin (72.9 percent).
- Tate’s average length of touchdown last season was 3.5 yards.
- Ameer Abdullah led the Lions backfield in touches in 12 games last season, but was their highest scoring back just once and their third highest scorer in eight games.
Trust: Matthew Stafford, Golden Tate (Detroit is naturally pass heavy while Tate should find Antonio Cromartie and Darius Butler for the bulk of his routes), Donte Moncrief (If Detroit stays in base defense, he’ll find Darius Slay the most often, which makes trusting him a riskier proposition, but halfway through the season, the Lions turned to Slay primarily covering the opposing team’s best wide receiver, even including guys like Kenny Britt. Leaving Nevin Lawson to play against the other perimeter option. If that happens again here, then Moncrief will benefit)
Bust: Eric Ebron (the matchup looks great, but Ebron is just practicing for the first time since his injury this week and now has Anquan Boldin to contend with for intermediate targets)
Reasonable Return: Andrew Luck (I’m probably a little crazy, but the Colts team total feels like a slight trap. No team surpassed 27 points against the Lions after week 8 and they ranked in the upper half of multiple pass metrics. Luck was far from bankable even when healthy last season, but he has being a pass heavy, favorite home quarterback with the highest team total in his pocket), T.Y. Hilton (you’re not running away from Hilton because of Slay on any level as Hilton can still hang a crooked number on a single play versus anyone), Frank Gore (the matchup isn’t in his favor but touches and offensive scoring opportunities can overcome that concern), Theo Riddick (always in play as a floor flex, he had just four weeks outside of the top-36 scorers in 2015 and just two outside of the top-40 and this game gets a bump in hopes being a shootout), Ameer Abdullah (it’s concerning that Abdullah can still be frozen out of receptions or goal line work, but he lead all backs in percentage of runs and yards on perimeter attempts last season while the Colts defensive line will be without Henry Anderson and possibly Kendall Langford), Marvin Jones (Patrick Robinson is the Colts best defensive back with Davis out and will be on Jones the most, but he’s far form a cornerback you’re going to alter your approach on), Dwayne Allen (he has limited reception appeal with the amount of blocking snaps he sees, but Detroit allowed 10 top-12 scoring tight ends and 12 touchdowns to the position in 2015. You can do worse chasing a touchdown this week), Phillip Dorsett (no matter if Slay finds Moncrief or Hilton, Dorsett should run into opportunities on Lawson and Quandre Diggs)
New England vs. Arizona
| Patriots | Rank | @ | Cardinals | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spread | -6 | ||
| 21.0 | Implied Total | 27.0 | ||
| 65.7 | 12 | Plays/Gm | 64.7 | 15 |
| 66.1 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.9 | 5 |
| 35.0% | 30 | Rush% | 41.8% | 11 |
| 65.0% | 3 | Pass% | 58.2% | 22 |
| 38.6% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 38.7% | 10 |
| 61.4% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 61.3% | 23 |
- Arizona scored on a league high 46.5 percent of their possessions last season.
- Including the postseason, Larry Fitzgerald has seen his targets share drop from 29.3 percent to 22.4 percent and his yardage drop from 92.6 yards per game to 61.9 yards once David Johnson was the starting running back.
- David Johnson led all running backs in points per rushing attempt (.85) and points per reception (1.9) last season amongst the top-50 scorers at the position.
- 24.9 percent of Carson Palmer‘s pass attempts were 15 or more yards downfield, the highest in the league (league average was 18.6 percent).
- From Week 6 on, Michael Floyd ranked 21st in points while averaging 15.4 points and 7.2 targets per game. Over those 10 games, Floyd had 70 receiving yards or a touchdown in eight while being outside of the top-25 scorers at his position just three times.
- James White‘s weekly finishes over the final seven weeks of 2015 were RB7, RB67, RB2, RB14, RB7, RB23 and RB35.
- White led all backs with 50 or more touches on the season in points per touch (1.98).
- Only Theo Riddick (93.7 percent) had a higher percentage of his points come off of receiving usage than White’s 85.6 percent.
- LeGarrette Blount had a touch on 55 percent of his snaps last season, the highest rate for all running backs with 200 or more snaps on the season.
- Just 8.7 percent of Blount’s attempts and targets came while New England was trailing on the scoreboard.
- In the five games that both Blount and White played together without Dion Lewis, Blount outcarried White 67 to nine.
Trust: David Johnson (there may not be a lot on the ground here, but his receiving ability is a big bonus in this matchup), Larry Fitzgerald (Floyd and Brown will be contending with Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler while Fitz works inside against Cyrus Jones)
Bust: John Brown (all three of the Cardinals receivers were top-36 scorers in the same week just three times all of last season, so there’s bound to be an odd man out for the majority of weeks. With the missed time this preseason, Brown’s efficiency taking a step back to close 2015 and likely seeing Butler the most; I’m more on him being the short straw this week), Jimmy Garoppolo (there’s a path here for Garoppolo to throw 40 plus times, but with the majority likely coming on the intermediate level, he’s going to need to stack a lot of production), Julian Edelman (he will Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu no matter if he moves inside or stays outside on three wide sets), LeGarrette Blount (this is not the typical game where Blount would heavily be involved and the matchup is poor if the Patriots desire to slow things down for Garoppolo)
Reasonable Return: Carson Palmer (Palmer was the ultimate floor play at quarterback last year as he had just one week under 15 fantasy points as he finished lower than QB17 just twice), Michael Floyd (his individual matchup isn’t much greater than Brown’s as Ryan is just as good, but Floyd was consistently the Cardinals best receiver over the back half of 2015), James White (there’s a lot of room for White to see a smattering of targets in this game as the Pats could inherently one dimensional or become so due to script. Arizona didn’t allow oodles of receptions to backs, but receiving backs like Gio Bernard and Theo Riddick did dust them up), Martellus Bennett (with Gronk now out and Edelman drawing the two best Arizona defenders no matter what set New England comes out in, Bennett becomes a top-12 tight end play), Chris Hogan (he was Jimmy G’s favorite target this preseason and may find Brandon Williams and a lot of targets in this one)
Pittsburgh vs. Washington
| Steelers | Rank | @ | Washington | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Spread | 3 | ||
| 26.5 | Implied Total | 23.5 | ||
| 63.3 | 22 | Plays/Gm | 63.6 | 19 |
| 66.3 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.5 | 15 |
| 38.3% | 20 | Rush% | 41.4% | 14 |
| 61.7% | 13 | Pass% | 58.7% | 19 |
| 36.8% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 40.6% | 15 |
| 63.2% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 59.4% | 18 |
- Opposing tight ends have seen 8.9 targets per game last season against Pittsburgh, the second most in the league.
- Jordan Reed was targeted on 28.6 percent of his routes last year, highest rate in the league for all tight ends.
- Chris Thompson had 14.6 percent of the team targets while Washington was trailing on the scoreboard compared to just a 7.3 percent share tied or ahead.
- The Steelers allowed 190.2 yards per game to opposing wide receiver units last season, the most in the league.
- The Steelers allowed 19 top-24 scoring wide receivers last season, the most in the league.
- Pittsburgh allowed just seven top-24 scoring running backs and just two top-12 scoring running backs all of 2015, both the fewest in the league.
- Just five of Ben Roethlisberger‘s 21 passing touchdowns came on the road last season and he had averaged seven fewer points on the road per game over the past three seasons.
- Antonio Brown has 152 catches for 2,039 yards and 12 touchdowns on 208 targets in his past 16 games played with Roethlisberger.
- DeAngelo Williams averaged 87 percent of the team snaps, 21.3 touches, 112.1 total yards and 21.3 fantasy points per game with Le’Veon Bell inactive last season.
- 71 percent of Williams’ rushing attempts last season were on interior runs (142 of 200), the highest rate in the league. Washington allowed 4.5 yards per carry on those runs, the 4th highest in the league.
Trust: Jordan Reed, DeSean Jackson (Jackson averaged a robust 11.0 yards per target last season while the Steelers allowed the 5th highest yards per target to receivers last season), Kirk Cousins (the Steelers are strong against the run, but there back end is one of the most favorable plays in the league. Washington is built to have to throw to sustain offense), Antonio Brown (there’s minimal concerns about individual matchups for Brown. Richard Sherman gave him a handful last season, but it’s unknown if Josh Norman is that caliber of one on one corner yet), DeAngelo Williams (Washington’s back end projects to be much tougher than they are in the front seven and Williams will see a ton of touches)
Bust: Matt Jones (health question marks entering don’t alleviate any matchup concerns), Ben Roethlisberger (outside of his poor roads splits now running for three years, Washington has a secondary that limit the passing options outside of Antonio Brown), Markus Wheaton (if Washington plays straight up, he’ll find Norman. If Norman shadows Brown, then he will find Bashaud Breeland)
Reasonable Return: Pierre Garcon (Garcon was the very poor man’s Jarvis Landry, finishing outside of the top-48 scoring receivers in just three weeks last season, but in the top-24 just twice), Chris Thompson (with Jones possibly not 100 percent and Washington expected to be pass heavy, Thompson should fill flex standards) Eli Rogers (Washington’s boundary corners are very good and should inherently funnel targets inside where rookie Kendall Fuller will be), Jesse James (a similar though process with James as that of Rogers, targets should naturally find him)
Los Angeles vs. San Francisco
| Rams | Rank | @ | 49ers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Spread | 3 | ||
| 23.5 | Implied Total | 20.5 | ||
| 57.5 | 32 | Plays/Gm | 60.6 | 30 |
| 68.2 | 29 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.6 | 27 |
| 46.6% | 6 | Rush% | 40.3% | 16 |
| 53.4% | 27 | Pass% | 59.8% | 17 |
| 41.5% | 17 | Opp. Rush % | 46.6% | 31 |
| 58.5% | 16 | Opp. Pass % | 53.4% | 2 |
- The Rams ranked dead last in plays (5.0) and yards (25.3) per possession and 31st in points per drive (1.2) in 2015.
- While in Philadelphia, Chip Kelly‘s teams allowed 71.8 (32nd), 69.6 (31st) and 71.6 (32nd) plays per game.
- Over that same span, the Rams have run 57.5 (32nd), 59.8 (30) and 60.5 (29) plays per game, but the one time that they played the Eagles in 2014, they ran 76 offensive plays, their most in any game over the past three seasons.
- The 49ers allowed 18.0 rushing points per game to running backs, the most in the league.
- From Week 7 on last season, Todd Gurley led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 10.
- Gurley’s yards per carry per quarter last season were 2.4, 5.0, 5.8 and 6.6 as the game progressed.
- Gurley averaged 8.2 more touches and 11.9 more points per game in the eight games in which the Rams won or lost by three points or fewer.
- Carlos Hyde has averaged 2.2 more yards per carry so far in his career on runs from the shotgun or pistol opposed to the quarterback under center. 78 percent of the running back runs while Chip Kelly was in Philadelphia were from the shotgun or pistol.
- The Rams allowed the 5th fewest yards per carry on interior runs (3.7 YPC), but ranked 22nd in yards per carry off either tackle or end (4.7 YPC)
- No team faced fewer rushing attempts from the 5-yard line and in than the Rams last season (7). San Francisco faced the most at 39 and gave up 17 rushing scores from that area of the field, most in the league.
- Tavon Austin caught 45.5 percent of the Rams’ receiving touchdowns last season, the highest receiving touchdown share in the league.
- In the preseason, Blaine Gabbert was 5/6 for 92 yards targeting Vance McDonald and 7/16 for 54 yards targeting anyone else.
- When these two teams last met in Week 17 of last season, Gabbert threw for a career-high 354 yards.
Trust: Todd Gurley (great paper play with added bonus of Rams running more snaps), Carlos Hyde (the Rams front is their defensive strength, but volume and scheme are in Hyde’s favor)
Bust: Torrey Smith (Smith was targeted just once on 31 routes in the preseason and Gabbert had trouble getting the ball to his receivers, a similar problem from last season after he took over), Case Keenum (Keenum completed more than 14 passes in just one his starts a year ago and it was against San Francisco, but he also had an average yards per attempt over 6.2 yards just once)
Reasonable Return: Tavon Austin (Austin was WR7 and WR40 in the two meeting against the 49ers last season and could find extra touches if the Rams run an extra 10-12 plays), Blaine Gabbert (Gabbert’s average weekly rank last season as QB16 and that was while playing in a much slower offense and adds a sneaky layer of rushing output), Vance McDonald (the Rams allowed just six touchdowns to opposing tight ends last season, but if you’re going to trust any player in the 49er passing game to start off, it has to be McDonald by default of Gabbert showing and having no chemistry with his receivers)
Context Key:
Trust = Set him in your lineups this week
Bust = Player to underperform season average
Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average
**All Vegas Lines are taken from BetUs Tuesday Evenings
