The Worksheet: Week 3

Two weeks in and we’re already starting to see many things we assumed coming into the season proven to be false. Week 2 was a wild week for favorites biting the dust as Miami, Indianapolis, Philadelphia and Baltimore all suffered let downs. We’re also two weeks in and the Seahawks, Ravens, Eagles or Colts don’t have a win yet. We’re still at a very fluid point of the season, but some small trends are beginning to take shape.

As usual, this game by game fact sheet is just what the entails, a worksheet for you to work off of for your own lineup construction and daily fantasy. Hit the context key at the bottom as it’s not intended to be a start/sit guide. Also, if you’re curious about my own personal rankings, I do provide them weekly at Fantasy Pros. Other than that, use this information in conjunction with all of the great weekly content available here on the site. Let get to these Week 3 games…

Washington Redskins at New York Giants

Redskins	@	Giants
4	Spread	-4
20	Team O/U	23.5
67.5	Plays/Gm	63.0
50.5	Opp. Plays/Gm	69.0
54.8%	Rush %	37.3%
45.2%	Pass %	62.7%
30.7%	Opp. Rush %	32.6%
69.3%	Opp. Pass %	67.4%

• 14 of Alfred Morris’ 18 carries last week went for two yards or less, while just seven of Matt Jones’ 19 did.
• Morris (18) and Jones (19) were the first set of Washington backs to each have 15 or more carries in a game since Ladell Betts and Clinton Portis in Week 3, 2006.
• The Giants have allowed 42.6 yards per opponent’s drive, most in the league. Washington has allowed just 21.1 yards per drive, fewest in the league.
• Eli Manning was the QB1 and the QB2 overall facing Washington last season, with seven total touchdown passes.
• After a six catch, 139 yard first half on 10 targets, Odell Beckham had just one pass for seven yards on two looks in the second half last week.
• Rueben Randle has been targeted on just 8.8 percent of his routes (seven of 80), 98th of the 103 receivers that have run at least 25 routes.
• Rashad Jennings has reached 60 rushing yards just three times in 13 games as a Giant. Andre Williams has reached that mark four times.

Trust: Kirk Cousins (this won’t be a repeat for Cousins from a year ago on Thursday Night. The Giants have consistently been a soft paper play for quarterbacks since the back half of last season), Jordan Reed (leading all tight ends in targets per route at 34.7 percent, back to back top-6 fantasy weeks)

Bust: Alfred Morris (Giants have been stingy on the ground, allowing just 3.0 yards per carry and now Jones is breathing down his neck), Matt Jones (hard to bank on last week’s volume and game script for being viable weekly at this stage of the season), Rueben Randle,

Rashad Jennings

Reasonable Return: Odell Beckham (he needs someone else in this receiving group to help him and Washington will have their full secondary in tow this week), Eli Manning (this isn’t the same Washington secondary he shredded both times a year ago, but this team can’t run), Pierre Garcon (target volume is sticky, but so are the lack of splash play opportunities to create a big ceiling), Shane Vereen (his receiving floor will be in play here as Washington is strong against the run), Larry Donnell (he won’t score three times in this one like a year ago, but he’s the Giants third best passing option after Vereen).

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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Bengals	@	Ravens
3	Spread	-3
20.5	Team O/U	23.5
63.5	Plays/Gm	63.5
58.5	Opp. Plays/Gm	67.5
52.8%	Rush %	37.8%
47.2%	Pass %	62.2%
35.0%	Opp. Rush %	32.6%
65.0%	Opp. Pass %	67.4%

• Gio Bernard had 15 carries for 91 in the second half Sunday as Jeremy Hill had just three carries for five yards. Bernard had 11 runs of five or more yards, most of any back in the league this past week.
• Baltimore has allowed just 11 70-yard rushers, for 90-yard ones and just one 100-yard rusher over their past 34 games.
• Andy Dalton has thrown multiple touchdowns against the Ravens in just two of his eight games facing them, with just one passing touchdown in their two meetings last season.
• A.J. Green has scored in each of his past three games facing the Ravens.
• In Joe Flacco‘s past four games against the Bengals, he’s finished QB22, QB28, QB15 and QB31.
• Since turning 30 in 2009, Steve Smith has 18 100-yard receiving games. 14 of those have come in the front half of the season.
• Just seven of Justin Forsett‘s 29 carries have gone for five or more yards, 2014. 37 percent of his carries in 2014 went for five or more yards.
• In his past six regular season games, Forsett has rushed for fewer than 75 yards five times, averaging 14.2 carries for 61.3 yards over that span with one rushing touchdown.

Trust: Gio Bernard (this may feel like point chasing, but this game sets up better for Bernard to be used as a pass catcher. He also has had five or more catches against the Ravens in three of his four games versus Baltimore), A.J. Green (will get a bump up from the four targets he had last week and Baltimore has allowed 15 receptions to the Denver receiver duo and 16 to the Oakland one last week)

Bust: Joe Flacco (with the lack of substantial weapons, this passing game feels very matchup dependent weekly), Steve Smith (I normally make it a point to fade WR2 types against Cincinnati), Marvin Jones (hard to feel good about plugging in 3-5 targets into a spot you need points out of), Crockett Gillmore (has the chance this week to prove that last week wasn’t Oakland induced), Jeremy Hill (I always ding backs facing Baltimore and Hill has yet to roll over 2014’s efficiency)

Reasonable Return: Tyler Eifert (the Ravens have limited tight ends through two weeks, but haven’t faced one as good as Eifert), Andy Dalton (shaky results against common opponents is known, but I believe the Bengals win this game and will have to score in the air), Justin Forsett (the Bengals have been generous to backs out of the backfield allowing 21 receptions, should aid Forsett’s floor)

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Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns

Raiders	@	Browns
3.5	Spread	-3.5
20	Team O/U	23
63.5	Plays/Gm	55.0
67.5	Opp. Plays/Gm	67.0
27.6%	Rush %	52.7%
72.4%	Pass %	47.3%
41.5%	Opp. Rush %	49.3%
58.5%	Opp. Pass %	50.7%

• Oakland has allowed 12 pass plays of 20 or more yards, most in the league.
• Travis Benjamin is the first receiver since James Lofton in 1983 to catch three touchdown passes of 50 yards or more in the first two weeks of the season.
• Antonio Brown is the only other receiver this season to have multiple 50 yard receptions than Benjamin.
• Benjamin ran just nine total routes in Week 2. 109 other WR ran more.
• Duke Johnson has played nearly identical snaps (58) to Isaiah Crowell (59), but Crowell has a touch on 49.2 percent of his snaps while Duke Johnson is at 32.8 percent.
• The Raiders were 0-8 in Derek Carr‘s road starts last season. In those games, Carr’s best fantasy finish was QB17.
• Michael Crabtree has been targeted on 27.7 percent of his routes, 12th highest in the league.

Trust: Latavius Murray (Murray has shown a reliable floor in two tougher matchups and now gets a Cleveland team allowing 4.8 yards per carry to start the season)

Bust: Derek Carr (the big plays he had last week will be tough to come by in this one), Travis Benjamin (should definitely see more usage than he did last week, but living off of 50 yarders is a tough thing to do), Michael Crabtree (expecting Oakland to run more this week than the prior two, Crabtree disappoints for those using immediate waiver claims)

Reasonable Return: Johnny Manziel (he has to start first, but as streamer if you’ve been starting a Sam Bradford type, Manziel gets a hurting secondary that has allowed two touchdown passes each week and a lot of big passing plays from a west coast team traveling east for an early start that is coming off of a big win), Isaiah Crowell (when he’s in the game, he’s getting the ball), Amari Cooper (his target floor is safer than Crabtree’s)

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Saints	@	Panthers
n/a	Spread	n/a
n/a	Team O/U	n/a
69.5	Plays/Gm	70.0
58.0	Opp. Plays/Gm	74.0
33.8%	Rush %	48.6%
66.2%	Pass %	51.4%
51.7%	Opp. Rush %	29.7%
48.3%	Opp. Pass %	70.3%

• Last year, just 40 percent (70/175) of Jonathan Stewart‘s carries went for two yards or less. So far through two games, 19 of his 35 rushes have been for two yards and under.
• Greg Olsen is the only tight end to play 100 percent of his team’s snaps so far through two weeks.
• Cam Newton is on a 192 carry pace through two weeks. He also ran 10 plus times in 3 of the final five games of 2014 including the playoffs.
• Newton has carried on 16.1 percent of his snaps, the highest of all quarterbacks. Russell Wilson is second at 12.6 percent.
• Ted Ginn was targeted on 25 percent (six of 24) of his routes Week1 and 25.8 percent (eight of 31) Week 2.
• New Orleans is allowing 11.2 adjusted yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks, highest in the league.
• Brandin Cooks has run the fourth most routes at wide receiver (90), but has been target on just 16.7 percent (57th).
• Opponents have scored on just five of 26 drives (19 percent) against Carolina so far, lowest rate in the league.
• They’ve faced just Blake Bortles and Ryan Mallet, but Carolina is allowing .195 passing points per throw to opposing quarterbacks, second lowest in the league.

Trust: Cam Newton, Greg Olsen, Ted Ginn (there’s a low floor here, but the opportunities have been there and this matchup is ripe)

Bust: Brandin Cooks (regardless if Brees plays, the Panther have been death for fantasy receiver production since the middle of 2014 and have already stopped Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins), Marques Colston, Brandon Coleman (ditto), Drew Brees (considering he plays and you can get over the health scare or possible re-injury, his receiving unit is outmatched here and will feature more of the same high volume of passes near the line of scrimmage that we’ve seen through two weeks), C.J. Spiller (just seven snaps in his return, wait for real usage)

Reasonable Return: Mark Ingram (even if Brees sits, has the safest volume out of this backfield), Jonathan Stewart (I really want to go all in with Stewart in a great spot, but he’s had two favorable game scripts in a row and has produced pedestrian lines)

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys

Falcons	@	Cowboys
-1	Spread	1
23	Team O/U	21.5
70.0	Plays/Gm	69.0
66.5	Opp. Plays/Gm	58.0
40.7%	Rush %	40.6%
59.3%	Pass %	59.4%
29.3%	Opp. Rush %	35.3%
70.7%	Opp. Pass %	64.7%

• Last Sunday was the first time Roddy White failed to record a catch in a game in which he was targeted in 133 games played.
• Leonard Hankerson ran 37 routes to Roddy’s 39 this week. He ran 28 routes to White’s 32 in Week 1.
• Per Pro Football Focus, Hankerson has run 68 percent of his routes from the slot this season, by far the most on the team.
• Tyler Patmon has seen 17 targets in slot coverage this season, the second most in the league so far this season. He’s allowed nine receptions for 113 yards (most in the league) on those targets.
• Julio Jones’ 22 receptions are tied for the third most ever through two weeks and the most by Falcon receiver since Roddy White‘s 20 in 2010. Another former Falcon, Andre Rison, holds the record with 26 receptions through two weeks in 1994.
• Just four of Devonta Freeman’s 22 attempts have gone for five or more yards while 13 have been for two yards or less.
• Dallas has already allowed three different backs to catch four or more passes.
• In Brandon Weeden‘s lone start last season, Dallas posted their lowest total yardage (266 yards) on the season.
• Terrance Williams didn’t see a bump in usage post Dez Bryant injury. In Week 1, Williams was targeted on 20 percent of his routes and Week 2, 19.4 percent.
• The player who had the biggest increase in playing time was Gavin Escobar, who went from nine snaps played in Week 1 to 48 this past week, but Dallas only passed on 17 of those plays.
• Dallas is 30th in the league in rushing points per attempt at .338 points. Last season they ranked eighth at .629 points per carry.

Trust:

Julio Jones

Bust: Terrance Williams (a late score saved his week and will be seeing Desmond Trufant the most this week), Roddy White (the WR2 target situation should be fluid weekly in Atlanta depending on the matchup and this week Hankerson gets the better draw again), Joseph Randle (Dallas will want to run it, but DeMarco Murray ran eight times for nine yards Week 1 against Atlanta and Rashad Jennings nine times for 12 yards last week)

Reasonable Return: Devonta Freeman (not expecting much on the ground, but has a viable receiving floor and the Atlanta offense is capable of setting up cheap scoring opportunities), Matt Ryan (has yet to consistently cross the fantasy Rubicon on the road and Dallas limits overall play volume), Leonard Hankerson, Jason Witten (he’s banged up, but also should see the most targets), Cole Beasley (Jordan Matthews caught 10 passes from the inside Week 1 against Atlanta, could be similar for Beasley)

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Colts	@	Titans
-3.5	Spread	3.5
24	Team O/U	20.5
64.5	Plays/Gm	62.0
58.5	Opp. Plays/Gm	55.0
31.8%	Rush %	50.0%
68.2%	Pass %	50.0%
53.9%	Opp. Rush %	50.9%
46.1%	Opp. Pass %	49.1%

• Tennessee trailed for 71 of 74 offensive plays this past week after running zero plays while trailing Week 1.
• Due to that, Dexter McCluster played 47 snaps after playing just 14 in Week 1.
• McCluster carried 10 times for 98 yards. He carried 40 times for 140 yards all of 2014.
• Kendall Wright has seen just eight targets, which ranks 58th of the 77 receivers who have run at least 50 routes on the season.
• Tennessee has allowed a sack rate of 14.5 percent so far, highest rate in the league.
• Andrew Luck is averaging just .253 passing points per attempt, which ranks 33rd of all quarterbacks with double digit pass attempts.
• Luck threw six touchdown passes on 57 pass attempts versus Tennessee in 2014.
• Andre Johnson ranks last of all 58 receivers with double digit targets in points per target (.76) to start the season.
• T.Y. Hilton ranks 51st at 1.16 points per target.
• Donte Moncrief ranks 10th in the same category at 2.20 points per target.

Trust: Andrew Luck, Donte Moncrief (big bounce back for Luck this week), Frank Gore (through the two toughest matchups he’ll face in his early slate, Tennessee allowed 4.7 yards to Doug Martin and Isaiah Crowell through two weeks)

Bust: Andre Johnson, Bishop Sankey

Reasonable Return: T.Y. Hilton (if he’s fully healthy, bump him up a tier), Coby Fleener (monitor Dwayne Allen’s availability as Fleener has just one target though two weeks, but was a TE1 when Allen missed time last year), Kendall Wright (he’s a more volatile option than a safe one, but with the Colts secondary limited he should be more involved this week), Marcus Mariota (he showed his floor is still solid last week even when the game script is negative), Dexter McCluster (his versatility suits Mariota’s and the Titans could be point chasing), Delanie Walker/Anthony Fasano (this offense is geared to free up the tight end and D’Qwell Jackson may miss this game. If Walker is out, Fasano is not a terrible fall back)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans

Buccaneers	@	Texans
7	Spread	-7
17	Team O/U	23.5
61.0	Plays/Gm	77.5
59.5	Opp. Plays/Gm	69.5
50.0%	Rush %	28.4%
50.0%	Pass %	71.6%
49.6%	Opp. Rush %	46.8%
50.4%	Opp. Pass %	53.2%

• Mike Evans ran just 19 routes last week compared to 27 for Vincent Jackson and 23 for Louis Murphy.
• Per Pro Football Focus, Jameis Winston has faced pressure on 41.7 percent of his drop backs, fourth highest in the league.
• Tampa Bay has allowed seven sacks, fourth most in the league. Those sacks came against two teams that finished 16th and 25th in overall sacks a year ago.
• Houston has allowed opposing running backs to rush for just 178 yards on 46 carries (3.9 YPC).
• Tampa Bay has only allowed one play of 25 plus yards through two weeks, tied with the Chiefs for the fewest in the league.
• Houston has punted on 15 of 28 (54 percent) of their drives, highest in the league.
• Ryan Mallett‘s .203 passing points per attempt last week were only better than Alex Smith (.146) and Jimmy Clausen (.123).

Trust: DeAndre Hopkins (free from Josh Norman, still seen 10 targets a week ago)

Bust: Jameis Winston (has been a solid mid-QB2 in terms of scoring each week, but this is the best defense he’ll face on the early season), Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson (it’s been the same story with Jackson as it was last year: high volume, low results. You’re playing for a touchdown.)

Reasonable Return: Mike Evans (with last week’s limited use hampered by Tampa holding a lead all game, he should be a full go this week), Ryan Mallett, Nate Washington (with no back to lean on, Houston will keep forcing the pass)

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots

Jaguars	@	Patriots
13.5	Spread	-13.5
17	Team O/U	30.5
66.0	Plays/Gm	67.0
65.0	Opp. Plays/Gm	65.5
40.9%	Rush %	29.1%
59.1%	Pass %	70.9%
39.2%	Opp. Rush %	39.7%
60.8%	Opp. Pass %	60.3%

• Julian Edelman is the first player ever to have 20 or more receptions over the opening two weeks in multiple seasons (he had 20 in the first two games of 2013).
• Edelman has been targeted on 36.5 percent of his routes, highest of any receiver.
• Only Antonio Brown (257 catches) has more receptions than Edelman’s 219 since the start of 2013.
• The Patriots have punted just five times on 22 possessions (23 percent), lowest rate in the league so far.
• Dion Lewis has played 81 percent of the Patriot snaps so far, the second highest rate of any back in the league (DeAngelo Williams 88 percent).
• Lewis is the only back in the league to have both 100 yards rushing and receiving on the season through two weeks.
• New England has the league’s highest sack rate at 13.9 percent.
• Last week was the first game in which Jacksonville didn’t allow a sack since Week 8 of 2013.
• T.J. Yeldon ranks 44th in rushing points per attempt (.33) of all backs with double digit carries.

Trust: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Allen Robinson (New England has allowed 28 points to Antonio Brown and another 18 points to Sammy Watkins), Dion Lewis (the spread and game script may suit LeGarrette Blount this week on paper, but the Jaguars front has been solid and can create interior pressure in the run and pass game. The Patriots offense feels unstoppable with the versatility Lewis has shown so far.

Bust: LeGarrette Blount (he may steal a short score or two in a blowout, but it’s hard to set him in your lineup heading into this week), T.J. Yeldon (potential game script issues and his own fantasy rushing inefficiency to overcome), Blake Bortles (Bortles versus Belichick)

Reasonable Return: Allen Hurns (has big play capability and the volume with be high in this one)

San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings

Chargers	@	Vikings
2	Spread	-2
21.5	Team O/U	23.5
65.0	Plays/Gm	57.5
54.5	Opp. Plays/Gm	68.0
42.3%	Rush %	51.3%
57.7%	Pass %	48.7%
47.7%	Opp. Rush %	40.4%
52.3%	Opp. Pass %	59.6%

• Teddy Bridgewater has completed at least 68 percent of his passes in seven consecutive games, but also attempted fewer than 30 passes in five of those games.
• Charles Johnson ranks 68th (six) and Mike Wallace ranks 51st (10) in targets of the 77 receivers with at least 50 routes run.
• After just three carries of five or more yards in Week 1 with a long run of nine yards, Adrian Peterson had 10 carries for five or more yards with six carries of nine or more yards against Detroit.
• Philip Rivers has attempted just three passes over 20 yards through two weeks and 52 of his 69 have been inside of 10 yards.
• Stevie Johnson ranks fourth in the league with 101 yards after the catch. Johnson has just one reception further than 10 yards downfield.
• Melvin Gordon had 11 carries for 56 in the first half Sunday as San Diego was a 55 percent run team. They passed 65 percent of their plays in the second half as Gordon had five carries for 32 yards.
• Gordon had runs of 27, 26 and 20 yards yesterday. Danny Woodhead hasn’t had a 20 yard run on his past 293 carries.

Trust: Melvin Gordon (Minnesota was gashed on the ground Week 1 and then the Lions abandoned the run a week ago. I see San Diego pacing the Vikings and staying in neutral script this week),

Adrian Peterson

Bust: Keenan Allen (I hate that I keep putting him here, but he should see a healthy helping of Xavier Rhodes), Malcom Floyd (just six targets through two weeks, he’s a strictly best ball option), Charles Johnson (there’s just no way you can play him until you see the receiver usage spike in this offense), Mike Wallace (both A.J. Green and Calvin Johnson seen just four targets each against San Diego)

Reasonable Return: Stevie Johnson (he’s adopted the Eddie Royal red zone usage), Philip Rivers (safe and steady QB2 points), Ladarius Green, Danny Woodhead (you know what you’re getting), Teddy Bridgewater (he’s basically Rivers with a lower ceiling), Kyle Rudolph

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets

Eagles	@	Jets
2.5	Spread	-2.5
21.5	Team O/U	24.5
61.5	Plays/Gm	61.0
70.0	Opp. Plays/Gm	62.0
26.8%	Rush %	51.6%
73.2%	Pass %	48.4%
48.6%	Opp. Rush %	41.9%
51.4%	Opp. Pass %	58.1%

• Through two weeks, Sam Bradford is 8-19 for 66 yards and an interception on third downs with two first downs.
• Bradford ranks 33rd at quarterback in points per snap at .154.
• The Jets are allowing .263 fantasy points per rushing attempt, lowest in the league.
• The seven rushing yards the Eagles had this past week were their lowest total in a game since 1961 (12 yards rushing).
• The Eagles 70 rushing yards are the lowest for a team through two games since the Raiders ran for 68 combined yards to open 2012 and are tied for the ninth fewest since the 1970 merger.
• DeMarco Murray, who has 11 rushing yards on 21 carries so far, ran 22 times for 118 yards in his opening game last season.
• The Eagles are averaging just 1:45 per drive over 25 possessions, lowest mark in the league.
• New York has carried leads into the fourth quarter of both games this season. In the fourth quarter, Bilal Powell has 13 carries to Chris Ivory‘s seven.
• Per Pro Football Focus, Byron Maxwell has allowed 240 receiving yards in his coverage, most in the league.

Trust: Brandon Marshall (has breezed through two of the toughest matchups he’ll have all season)

Bust: Ryan Fitzpatrick (two starts, and in two wins has two bottom third weekly finishes), Sam Bradford (his receivers should struggle to create separation and the interior of the line should have their hands full), DeMarco Murray (even with an emphasis on running coming, are we stocking up on the bounce back coming against this front?)

Reasonable Return: Chris Ivory (the Eagles play the run well and hasn’t rolled over his preseason usage in the passing game), Eric Decker (if he’s healthy, bump him up with Marshall), Jordan Matthews (Darrelle Revis may shadow him, but the Jets have been content letting Buster Skrine handle the slot duties so far), Zach Ertz (passes will be completed and Ertz has a favorable matchup against the jets linebackers)

Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams

Steelers	@	Rams
-1.5	Spread	1.5
24.5	Team O/U	23
59.0	Plays/Gm	50.5
70.0	Opp. Plays/Gm	72.5
42.4%	Rush %	38.6%
57.6%	Pass %	61.4%
39.3%	Opp. Rush %	47.6%
60.7%	Opp. Pass %	52.4%

• Ben Roethlisberger completed seven of nine passes for 245 yards on third down Sunday with four completions of 40 plus yards. Antonio Brown had 155 of those yards on four catches.
• Pittsburgh has 11 plays of 25 plus yards on the season, most in the league. The next closest is Buffalo and Cincinnati at seven each.
• 186 of DeAngelo Williams’ 204 rushing yards have come on first down.
• The Rams have run just five plays in the red zone through two weeks, fewest in the league.
• Pittsburgh is allowing .627 passing points per attempt to opposing quarterbacks, fourth most in the league.
• The Steelers have allowed 28 passing touchdowns over their past 12 games and 10 top-10 scoring fantasy quarterbacks.
• The only quarterback not to throw multiple touchdowns against Pittsburgh over that stretch was Alex Smith.

Trust: Nick Foles (at home and versus a secondary bleeding quarterback points), Le’Veon Bell (we don’t know his usage and the front for St. Louis can be crippling for this rushing floor, but his pass catching ability is too high to ignore),

Antonio Brown

Bust: Heath Miller (TE11 and TE13 finish so far, will lose some targets with Bell returning), Tre Mason (boom or bust runner on a low volume offense), Todd Gurley (this may finally be the week we see him suit up, but the usage is a complete mystery and the Rams have consistently sided with caution on him to this point)

Reasonable Return: Kenny Britt (if Foles is going to play well, by default someone has to benefit), Jared Cook, Ben Roethlisberger

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

49ers	@	Cardinals
6.5	Spread	-6.5
17.5	Team O/U	24.5
74.0	Plays/Gm	54.5
53.0	Opp. Plays/Gm	66.0
47.3%	Rush %	48.6%
52.7%	Pass %	51.4%
39.6%	Opp. Rush %	36.4%
60.4%	Opp. Pass %	63.6%

• Carson Palmer leads all quarterbacks in passing points per attempt at .816.
• In Palmer’s last eight starts, Larry Fitzgerald has been a top-20 scoring receiver five times and a top-10 one three times.
• Arizona has scored a touchdown on 10 of their 21 drives (48 percent), highest mark in the league.
• Michael Floyd has been targeted on just two of his 27 routes (7.4 percent).
• David Johnson played just 22 snaps to Chris Johnson‘s 34 while Johnson out touched him 20 to six.
• Johnson had three carries of 13 or more yards on his five carries while Johnson’s longest run was for eight yards on his 20 attempts.
• Colin Kaepernick in the first half Sunday was 11-15 for 61 yards, then 22-31 for 274 yards after the break.
• San Francisco ran 82 plays last week, their most since Week 11, 2011.
• In Kaepernick’s past four starts facing Arizona, he’s been the QB15, QB3, QB11 and the QB3.
• Kaepernick has rushed for 40 or more yards in five consecutive games, only Michael Vick (four times) and Tim Tebow have had such streaks at quarterback over the past 25 seasons.
• Weeks 1 and 2 are the first back to back games in which Vernon Davis seen six or more targets since Weeks 6 and 7 of 2013.

Trust: Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown (all systems go for this passing game)

Bust: Torrey Smith (wasn’t involved last week until the game script completely flipped), Chris Johnson (he’ll need the bunny attempts that DeAngelo Williams had a week ago to float his total), David Johnson (still in stash mode on your rosters), Carlos Hyde (low projected team total for a road dog)

Reasonable Return: Colin Kaepernick (despite his stellar history facing Arizona and rushing floor, a low projected point total for a road dog keeps any excitement neutral), Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Bills	@	Dolphins
3	Spread	-3
20.5	Team O/U	23.5
60.0	Plays/Gm	58.5
72.0	Opp. Plays/Gm	67.5
52.5%	Rush %	29.1%
47.5%	Pass %	70.9%
22.2%	Opp. Rush %	51.9%
77.8%	Opp. Pass %	48.1%

• In 2014, Lamar Miller led all running backs with 100 or more carries in percentage of runs that went for five or more yards at 41.1 percent (93 of 216). So far, just 26 percent (six of 23) of his carries have gone for at least five yards.
• Rishard Matthews played 76 percent of the snaps Week 2 after playing 79 percent in Week 1, second most of all Miami receivers each week. He’s finished as the WR25 and WR27 each week.
• Since week 10 of last season, Jarvis Landry has 70 receptions. Only Odell Beckham (85), Antonio Brown (76), Julio Jones (73) and Demaryius Thomas (72) have more over that span.
• Matthews ranks seventh in points per target (2.38 points) of all receivers with double digit targets, Landry is 35th at 1.35 points per target.
• Tyrod Taylor ranks fifth of all fantasy quarterbacks in points per snap at .321.
• 34.4 percent of Taylor’s fantasy production has come from rushing alone, the third highest dependency behind Cam Newton (42.9 percent) and Teddy Bridgewater (35.9 percent).
• The Bills have allowed 15 receptions to tight ends, tied with Oakland for the most in the league.

Trust: Ryan Tannehill (had a top-10 scoring week against Buffalo last season and the Bills allowed Andrew Luck to be the QB11 and Tom Brady as the QB2)

Bust: Lamar Miller (zero faith in his usage or this matchup), Sammy Watkins (two thirds of his targets and fantasy output came in the fourth quarter with Buffalo forcing the issue)

Reasonable Return: Tyrod Taylor (he’s been the QB14 and the QB6 so far, his floor is setting up to be solid), Jarvis Landry (doubtful Stephon Gillmore follows him; Edelman decimated Buffalo on the interior), LeSean McCoy (volume is steady and the Miami front has not been as good as advertised in the preseason to this point against two other suspect offensive lines), Rishard Matthews (use him while Miami is)

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

Bears	@	Seahawks
14.5	Spread	-14.5
14.5	Team O/U	28.5
66.5	Plays/Gm	68.0
52.5	Opp. Plays/Gm	59.5
45.9%	Rush %	41.9%
54.1%	Pass %	58.1%
55.2%	Opp. Rush %	46.2%
44.8%	Opp. Pass %	53.8%

• The Bears have allowed their opposition to score on 65 percent (11 of 17) of their drives and a touchdown on 10 of those, both the highest in the league. They were last in both of these categories in 2014 as well.
• Jimmy Graham has been targeted on just 12.8 percent of his routes (31st at tight end). His lowest season in New Orleans was 23.1 percent.
• 11 of Marshawn Lynch‘s past 13 rushing scores have come at home and he scored on the ground in six games at home in 2014.
• Chicago has allowed seven touchdowns to wide receivers through two games, most in the league.
• Since Percy Harvin left Seattle, Doug Baldwin has five top-20 scoring weeks, but also nine weeks outside of the top-40 receivers.
• Just four opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 250 yards over the past 24 regular season games in Seattle.
• Eddie Royal‘s 3.8 yards per target rank 54th of all wide receivers with double digit targets.

Trust: Marshawn Lynch, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Graham

Bust: Martellus Bennett (Seattle has shown to be courteous to tight ends in the red zone, but Chicago has to get there), Alshon Jeffery (could be jammed with targets, but health is still a question)

Reasonable Return: Doug Baldwin, Matt Forte (passing game floor keeps him viable in an otherwise potential bloodbath)

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions

Broncos	@	Lions
n/a	Spread	n/a
n/a	Team O/U	n/a
69.5	Plays/Gm	58.5
57.5	Opp. Plays/Gm	67.5
33.8%	Rush %	27.4%
66.2%	Pass %	72.6%
45.2%	Opp. Rush %	53.3%
54.8%	Opp. Pass %	46.7%

• 11 of Emmanuel Sanders’ 16 receptions have come on third down, most in the league.
• Through two weeks, Denver has just two plays that have gone for 20 plus yards, last in the league.
• The Broncos average 22.8 yards per drive, lowest in the league.
• The Lions have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 81.7 percent of their passes through two weeks, highest mark in the league.
• Opponents have run 39 plays in the red zone against Detroit through two weeks, most in the league.
• Detroit allowed just .425 points per rushing attempt last season, lowest in the league. So far, they are allowing .686 points per attempt, the fifth most through two weeks.
• Joique Bell ranks last in rushing points per attempt (.16), while C.J. Anderson ranks 50th out of the 51 backs with double digit carries so far.
• Denver has allowed just .076 passing points per attempt, league average is .450. They are also allowing just 2.3 adjusted yards per attempt, average is 7.3 yards.
• Per Pro Football Focus, Matt Stafford has a 32.3 completion percentage when pressured, 31st in the league. Denver applied the first most pressure (65 percent) in Week 1, and the fourth most (45 percent) in Week 2.

Trust: Peyton Manning (both Rivers and Bridgewater beat them intermediately, where Manning’s current strength is), Emmanuel Sanders,

Demaryius Thomas

Bust: Matt Stafford (bumps and bruises and the matchup make him avoidable), Eric Ebron, Golden Tate (his floor is already lower than perceived and the matchup caps his ceiling), Owen Daniels (Detroit has allowed a touchdown to a tight end in both game so far, but Daniels has been far down on the pecking order)

Reasonable Return: C.J. Anderson (extra time off and hopefully Denver finding their niche against Kansas City bring Anderson back strongly), Calvin Johnson (fed 17 targets last week and will need a similar type of volume to replicate a usable line against the league’s best secondary)

Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers

Chiefs	@	Packers
7	Spread	-7
20.5	Team O/U	27.5
62.5	Plays/Gm	58.5
71.5	Opp. Plays/Gm	64.0
48.8%	Rush %	50.4%
51.2%	Pass %	49.6%
30.1%	Opp. Rush %	45.3%
69.9%	Opp. Pass %	54.7%

• James Jones has 19 touchdown receptions over his past 25 complete games played with Aaron Rodgers.
• Over his past 16 games at Lambeau, Aaron Rodgers has completed 69.6 percent of his passes for 4,425 yards with 39 touchdowns and just one interception.
• In his starts at home dating back to last year, Rodgers’ fantasy ranks have been QB1, QB11, QB3, QB1, QB1, QB7, QB5, QB2, and QB8.
• Kansas City has allowed 41 receptions to wide receivers through two weeks, most in the league.
• The Chiefs have allowed multiple receivers to reach 80 receiving yards in each game to start the season.
• Green Bay has allowed just six receptions for 66 yards and a touchdown to Martellus Bennett and Jimmy Graham over their opening two games.
• Kansas City is 1-11 in games in which their opponent scores at least 21 points since the start of 2013.

Trust: Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, Jamaal Charles (even as a road dog, the strength of the Chiefs offense aligns with the weakest part of the Packer defense and comes with reception value in a truly bad script)

Bust: Davante Adams (Cobb is getting healthier and Adams has had hallow results off of tangible usage), Alex Smith (chasing points on the scoreboard has not been fruitful for Smith’s fantasy prospects), Eddie Lacy (Lacy gets an extra night to rest, but even if he’s a go, James Starks should see extra time. If Lacy is out, move Starks up to a high end RB2)

Reasonable Return: Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin (their targets and scoring floors are where they were last week), James Jones (he has one trick, but it’s a good one. Fits in best with two safe floor wide receivers)

Context Key:
Trust = Set him in your lineups this week
Bust = Player to underperform season average
Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average