It’s here, it’s championship weekend. The weekend where all your hard planning goes for nought because the Saints wanted to give Taysom Hill a ride off into the sunset. No wait, sorry, that was last week. But we here at FLEX Finder did hit with Rhamondre Stevenson, Kyle Monangai, Tyler Allgeier, Juwan Johnson, and even got a wild little touchdown from Malik Washington.
I won’t be too long here because we are writing to get this out ahead of the holidays — please have a Merry Christmas if you celebrate it. Unfortunately, the earlier this column launches, the harder it is to get good injury information. But here’s what I believe right now as we sit here on Tuesday night.
Column rules:
1) I will not recommend quarterbacks — you’re on your own there.
2) I will not recommend any running back who costs more than $5,000, wideout who costs more than $4,500, or tight end that costs more than $4,000 in DraftKings’ DFS Slate — I just figured this was an easy cutoff for what a FLEX really is.
3) I consider any player who garners over 50 yards or scores a victory for the column — anything more you get out of that, well, great for you. Let’s set expectations low because we are combing for outliers.
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▶ Running Backs
Audric Estime, NO — $4,900
If you take the Saints at their word that the Taysom Hill victory cigar tour was about the fact that it could be his final game in New Orleans, it makes plenty of sense to trust Estime this week. I actually (surprisingly) don’t love the matchup for the back — the Titans with Jeffery Simmons and T’Vondre Sweat healthy aren’t easy pickings up the middle — but I do think the game is a sneaky over candidate with both Tyler Shough and Cam Ward playing better of late. Estime could grab the majority of the carries here and Evan Hull wasn’t a real threat to his playing time last week. I do wish Hill wasn’t around as a looming goal-line vulture, but this is the price we pay for volume.
Kyle Monangai, CHI — $4,800
Well if I wasn’t scared of starting Monangai into the Packers defense, I’m definitely not scared of starting him into a 49ers defense that made Philip Rivers look like he was 5, 10, 15 years younger on Monday night. We’re not sure if D’Andre Swift will grab a questionable tag as he did last week, but Monangai gets plenty of touches in one of the best run offenses in the NFL and I continue to bet on him cashing them. The continued absence of Rome Odunze and Luther Burden at practice only serve to further justify the pick.
Sean Tucker, TB — $4,200
Who is getting consistent goal line work for the Buccaneers of late? It’s not Bucky Irving, much to the chagrin of several teams that the bank examiner has repossessed along with my computer. Tucker has led the Buccaneers with 20 red zone attempts this year, led them with nine attempts inside the five yard line, and has managed six touchdowns along the way. Despite the “healthy” Irving, he has scored in three straight games.
And the Dolphins are evaluating Quinn Ewers, just gave up an avalanche of points to the Bengals, and now I get to start a guy who has scored in three straight games against them for $4,200? What happens if the Buccaneers turn the game into a blowout? Probably extra carries for the healthy, bruising back, I would imagine. I like both the floor and the potential ceiling of Tucker as a DFS punt.
Malik Davis, DAL — $4,300
The Commanders on defense have already thoroughly embarrassed themselves, but now we’re in the period of time where they still have two weeks to play and are starting Josh Johnson. I think this game could get ugly. And with Javonte Williams dealing with a neck injury, the Cowboys gave him a season-low 56.9 percent of the snaps on Sunday. Davis has some sneaky upside paths if the Cowboys can embarrass the Commanders for a second-straight game, one where Dallas’ offense easily projects to be the best unit on the field.
▶ Wide receivers
Adonai Mitchell, NYJ — $4,500
It was only 3/43 for Mitchell last week, but the Jets still managed to pass the Justin Fields Memorial “actually crossed 150 passing yards” test. The Patriots have had a rough defense for most of the past few weeks and Mitchell is the closest thing the Jets have to a volume play right now. Brady Cook did manage to take eight sacks in the process and I’d feel better about this play if Mitchell had Tyrod Taylor under center, but this isn’t ideal situation finder, it’s FLEX finder.
Josh Downs, IND -- $4,200
As I said earlier: Mr. Rivers, I was not familiar with your 44-year-old game. Downs has benefited with 14 targets in two games and has drawn eight catches for 78 yards and a touchdown over Rivers’ two starts. The Jaguars are a pass funnel offense to begin with, and Trevor Lawrence‘s sudden ascension into what people thought he’d be five years ago is only going to make the need for the Colts to throw go up. Downs is my favorite kind of FLEX play: low-floor and high-ceiling.
Tre Tucker, LV — $3,300
The level of disdain I have for this Giants defense is such that any competent offense should be able to move the ball on them. The Raiders actually looked halfway competent against the Texans on Sunday! And while I can’t tell you that Tucker is playing well, he is getting plenty of targets as the de facto “No. 1 receiver” in a room devoid of talent. The price is right for this to be a nice little PPR scam, and Tucker has gone off for a 145/3 game this season. (Yes, that actually happened.)
Darius Slayton, NYG — $3,900
Speaking of garbage defenses, forgive me for not believing in Mr. Slayton last week, I had a pressing commitment called “I’m scared of Jaxson Dart versus Brian Flores.” Now, that solved, I think Dart rebounds nicely this week against a Raiders defense that only really can handle outside runs with any level of quality as a unit. Maxx Crosby will make plays of course, but their second-best player is probably journeyman corner Eric Stokes. Slayton — the columns franchise player this year after the brutal loss of Troy Franklin to “being too good to be priced low in DFS” — can once again deliver for us in Week 17 now that Flores is safely worrying about how to make Jared Goff‘s life hell.
Isaac TeSlaa, DET — $3,400
One thing that popped out at me when I was editing all the Sunday blurbs on Monday morning is that we blurbed TeSlaa. That’s not exactly surprising — he sometimes catches a touchdown — but he also managed seven targets. He hadn’t cracked so much as three before in his short career. The Lions had to involve both TeSlaa and Kalif Raymond heavily as the Steelers brought out all the designer looks they could teach in four days to try to handle Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.
I think anyone with this kind of touchdown-scoring ability is an ideal DFS punt, and if these trends actually continue and TeSlaa garners a real offensive role over the last two weeks of the season, he could make some DFS money for us.
▶ Tight ends
Brenton Strange, JAX — $4,000
Anyone in the middle-of-the-field Jaguars target game we can get our hands on, we want. We can’t get Parker Washington or Jakobi Meyers, but we can still find Strange, who scored last week. The Colts allowed George Kittle and Jake Tonges to shred them on Monday night. The Jaguars have dreams of the No. 1 seed in the AFC. I expect no mercy.
Terrance Ferguson, LAR — $2,800
Did you know that Ferguson has played 75 percent of the offensive snaps in the last two games? He finally scored his second touchdown of the season against the Seahawks last Thursday as part of a 38-point effort. I like Colby Parkinson, fun player, recommended him this year. But Ferguson is the Rams’ future at the position, and he’s no longer being babied anymore. With Davante Adams expected to miss Monday Night Football against the Falcons, the Rams will probably lean fully into their three-tight end sets. Ferguson has the highest upside of the lot and is an ideal DFS punt in my view.
