Week 16 is in the books, meaning we are on to the fantasy football championship round for most leagues. With one week left to go, these are the 10 storylines you should know heading into Week 17.
1) Brock Purdy is on a Warpath
Even a late interception versus the Colts on Monday night could only knock Purdy down a few spots in the spreadsheets. With 295 yards and five touchdowns on 34 attempts, Purdy finished the week in third place by both EPA per play and CPOE. He is up to first in EPA per play on the year. He is on pace for a career year by CPOE and just shy of a career-best mark in EPA per play.
- 2025: 0.315 / 8.1%
- 2024: 0.198 / 2.1%
- 2023: 0.338 / 5.4%
- 2022: 0.196 / -0.7%
Purdy made the most of a bad situation last year. His numbers took a hit, but he made strides as a player in the face of a crumbling offense. Now the team is starting to come together around him, and he’s taking advantage of a much better offensive environment.
2) Philip Rivers Rebounds
Well, sort of. Rivers threw for 120 yards, one touchdown, and one interception at a dismal 4.4 yards per attempt in his first start. Facing the 49ers on Monday, Rivers amassed 277 yards, two scores, and one interception. He averaged 7.9 YPA, a drastic improvement via an uptick in deep shots. Rivers’ aDOT doubled from 5.2 to 10.4. Despite attempting far more challenging throws, his completion rate fell by only one percent. Rivers’ pressure-to-sack rate of 16.7 percent this year isn’t special, but it’s enough to keep him out of trouble as long as the throws are on time. The Colts aren’t out of the playoff hunt yet, though they do need help at this point. As a Rivers skeptic, I’m officially sold that he can keep the fantasy hopes of Michael Pittman and Tyler Warren afloat. Coming off a two-score spike week, Alec Pierce is also back on the menu.
3) Jaylen Warren Goblin Mode
That’s what the kids are calling it these days. Warren broke off a pair of 45-yard touchdowns versus the Lions, all but eliminating them from the playoffs while putting the Steelers in the driver’s seat for the AFC North title. It has been a rollercoaster year for Warren. He began the year as a workhorse back, but the monster usage caught up to him and he eventually missed time with an injury. The Steelers turned him into a low-value committee back upon his return, but he papered over the usage concerns with touchdowns. Warren put it all together in Week 16 with 143 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 14 attempts. That is easily the best rushing performance of his career. Warren may be best suited for committee duties in the long run, but he can be a great complementary piece of an offense.
4) Ashton Jeanty’s Redemption Arc
In the deep recesses of my mind, I have to admit I was contemplating the delivery of a Tweet that read simply, “Jeanty mid.” The No. 5 overall pick has been entirely incapable of overcoming horrific circumstances this year. Given how dependent the running back position is on its surrounding situation, maybe that should have been the expectation. Either way, Jeanty defied the odds in Week 16 with a 24/128/1 rushing line. Even more impressive was his 60-yard touchdown grab.
GENO TO JEANTY FOR THE 60-YARD TD!
— NFL (@NFL) December 21, 2025
LVvsHOU on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/k8CknFOEcy
At the end of the year, Jeanty’s efficiency numbers are all going to look average at best. Many of them will be well below league-average. He currently ranks 20th in yards after contact per carry and 28th in PFF rushing grade. I have a feeling that we will — rather understandably — write his advanced stats off as artifacts of a broken Las Vegas offense. If the Raiders figure something out at quarterback, Jeanty should be back in the first round of drafts next year.
5) Michael Wilson’s Role Evaporates
Marvin Harrison Jr. returned for Week 16. You know what that means: Michael Wilson was back to running wind sprints. Wilson was targeted three times, though he did save fantasy managers with two grabs for 52 yards and a score. His 12 percent target share, however, is more than concerning. That is his tied for his lowest mark since Week 3. MHJ himself also saw just three targets, but it’s clear Wilson’s role changed. He logged an aDOT of 17.2, his highest mark since Week 2. He had an aDOT of 12.4 in the four games without MHJ on the field. Even if Harrison Jr. himself isn’t playable, his return has bumped Wilson to the WR3/4 border.
6) Harold Fannin Heat Check
Fannin isn’t going to set the record for receptions by a rookie tight end. That mark was set by Brock Bowers two years ago at 112. Fannin is “only” at 70. However, he could make the podium. He is 16 receptions away from the second-most for a rookie tight end. Fannin currently leads all rookies — of any position — in receptions. His efficiency numbers aren’t elite, but they remain impressive in the context of his horrific offense. Fannin ranks 15th in yards per route run (1.63) and 22nd in YAC per catch (5.1) among tight ends. This is coming off the greatest tight end season in the history of college football. Fannin is already a top-five fantasy tight end. He could go as high as TE3 in early drafts depending on how the Browns address the quarterback position.
7) Liam Coen COTY Case
It’s hard to make much of an MVP case for Trevor Lawrence. He is fourth in passing touchdowns and ninth in yards. Despite toppling the Broncos on Sunday, the Jags remain considerable underdogs to earn the No. 1 seed. That will likely go to the Patriots, who have a more deserving MVP in Drake Maye. Coen, however, is making a late push to win the Coach of the Year award, given Lawrence’s second-half surge. Lawrence is the QB2 in EPA per play since Week 10. That has largely been sparked by Coen hitting his stride as a play-caller. Through 10 games, the Jags ranked 30th in EPA per dropback when Lawrence was throwing to his first read. That is to say, even when the play went as planned, the results weren’t there. Lawrence had six touchdowns to eight interceptions on these attempts. Over his past five appearances, Jacksonville ranks second in EPA per play on first-read throws. Lawrence has 13 touchdown tosses and four picks during the heater.
8) Chris Olave Breaks Out
Until last week, Chris Olave had eight career games with 20+ PPR points, three of which had come this year. He did not have a 30-point game to his name. The former Buckeye was producing floor weeks like no one’s business, but was still in search of his first career explosion week. With Rashid Shaheed traded, Devaughn Vele on IR, and Alvin Kamara still sidelined, his target share hit the stratosphere in Week 16. A 35 percent target share was his second-highest mark of the year. His 68 percent air yards share is easily a season-high. He cashed in with 10 receptions for 148 yards and two scores. Olave is now the WR6 on the year and is only 25 years old. He already has three 1,000-yard seasons to his name. He should be one of the biggest year-over-year risers in ADP for 2026.
9) Bijan Robinson’s Elite Receiving Numbers
Robinson deserves his flowers for how good he has been as a runner, but his receiving output is being slept on. He is averaging a mind-boggling 1.99 yards per route run. That is a better mark than Christian McCaffrey has ever posted in a full season. His 11.1 YAC per reception leads the league (min. 30 targets). Much like CMC, Robinson isn’t just a check-down artist. He has run more routes from the slot or out wide (143) than any other running back in the league. Robinson was always a good pass-catcher, but he has quietly evolved into possibly the league’s premier receiving back.
10) Chiefs Pack it In
The Chiefs were eliminated from the playoff hunt and lost Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACl in Week 15. Understandably, Kansas City threw in the towel last week when they lost 9-26 to the Titans. Gardner Minshew left early with a knee injury and is expected to miss time. Chris Oladokun took over in the second half but couldn’t get anything going. Aside from Isiah Pacheco, no Chiefs player earned a target share over 15 percent. That, in particular, will be the final nail in the coffin for the fantasy prospects of Chiefs players. Sans Mahomes, they were already set up to be one of the league’s worst passing attacks. Now they don’t even have a player soaking up all of those low-value looks. Rashee Rice could return this week to shake things up, but there isn’t much to be gained by getting him back at this point. It wouldn’t be surprising for Kansas City to start shutting players down.
