Most fantasy championships have already been decided, but if you’re in a truly sick league and still have something on the line, these are my biggest stances and fades for Week 18. I’ll also make some DFS-based notes for Sunday’s games.
Quarterback
Start: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
The Jags are one of the few teams with plenty to play for in Week 18. They need a win or a Houston loss to secure the AFC South title. They are also in play for a first-round bye, though that is extremely unlikely. Vegas is all in on the motivation factor this week, assigning the Jags a 30.5-point team total. That is over two points higher than any other team. Lawrence is the QB1 overall over the past eight weeks. His 17 passing touchdowns over that stretch trail only Matthew Stafford. His five rushing scores trail only Josh Allen.
Sit: Dak Prescott, Cowboys
I generally lean on sportsbooks to tell us who is going to score points in any given week. The Cowboys are a spot where I disagree with Vegas. Dallas is favored by 3.5 points and has a 26.5 implied team total. I don’t think we see enough of Dak Prescott for this score to materialize.
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones on @1053thefan said, "We're gonna start Dak" Sunday at New York. But he sounded like Prescott might not play the entire game. "How we use Dak, let's make that part of the gameplan that we won't talk about."
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) December 30, 2025
The Cowboys have nothing left to play for outside of a better draft pick. Prescott is chasing the passing yardage crown, but he might not need to put much distance between himself and Matthew Stafford. Prescott already has a 34-yard lead and the Rams could sit their starters at some point in Week 18. With an eye on DFS this week, there simply is enough reward in playing Dak when the risk is that he sits out for the entire second half.
Running Back
Start: Travis Etienne, Jaguars
The Titans are better against the pass than versus the run, but only because they cannot stop a single quarterback. Tennessee still ranks just 24th in EPA per rush attempt allowed. They rank 30th in yards after contact per attempt allowed. As nearly two-touchdown favorites, the Jags should have no issues establishing their ground game over the Titans. In a week with loads of landmines because of motivation and tanking issues, Etienne’s elite floor makes him a top-five fantasy back.
Start: Woody Marks, Texans
Much like the Jags, Houston wants to win this week and they are massive favorites over a basement-dweller AFC South opponent. The Texans are projected to win by 10.5 points versus the Riley Leonard-led Colts. Excluding one game Marks left early, the rookie has seen at least 60 percent of the Texans’ carries in six consecutive games. The Texans gave him 63 percent of their goal line attempts in those starts.
Sit: James Cook, Bills
The Bills have little to play for this week. They can only shuffle around their Wild Card seeding and even a win doesn’t guarantee them anything better than the No. 6 spot. They were in a similar position last year. Josh Allen played one snap in Week 18. James Cook saw 10 carries but eventually gave way to Ray Davis, who saw 15 attempts. Like Prescott, Cook could get there in the first half. The risk of missing the second half is just too much for a pricey DFS option.
Sit: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Commanders
JCM exploded last week with 105 yards and two scores on 11 attempts. He operated as the team’s lead back with Chris Rodriguez out because of an illness. Rodriguez isn’t on the injury report this week, meaning we’re headed for another split backfield. In games with Rodriguez active, JCM has averaged 7.3 fantasy points per game.
Wide Receiver
Start: Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars
The Titans are a godsend defense for a deep threat like BTJ. They rank dead last in the NFL in YPA allowed on deep shots. Only two teams have allowed a higher touchdown rate on throws 20+ yards downfield. Thomas Jr. is 12th in the NFL in deep targets. He leads the team with 22 such looks. It’s now or never for BTJ in a year that didn’t necessarily go his way.
Start: Jahan Dotson, Eagles
The Eagles rested their starters in Week 18 of the 2024 season and Dotson racked up 11 targets, good for a 25 percent target share. He accounted for 42 percent of the air yards and ran a route on every one of the team’s dropbacks. Tanner McKee has already been announced as the starter to give Jalen Hurts the week off. McKee was also the team’s Week 18 starter last year. He threw for two scores and 269 yards. I could be talked into a Dotson-McKee stack in DFS tournaments.
Sit: Michael Pittman, Colts
Pittman’s target share has cratered since Daniel Jones went down. Jones’ last game was in Week 14. From Week 15 onward, Pittman has a 15 percent target share. He has been targeted on a dreadful 14 percent of his routes. He is averaging 5.5 PPR points per game post-Jones. Now the Colts are moving from Philip Rivers, who was surprisingly competent, to Riley Leonard.
Sit: Emeka Egbuka, Bucs
It’s on to 2026 for Egbuka. Bucs OC Josh Grizzard talked about getting him more involved early last week. Jalen McMillan was targeted three times on the team’s opening drive. Egbuka didn’t see his first target until the top of the third quarter. He went on to run just 54 percent of the routes with an 11 percent target share.
Tight End
Start: Juwan Johnson, Saints
Johnson’s 18 percent target share ranks 12th among tight ends. His 16 percent air yards share is tied for 11th. Johnson has turned that volume into the TE9 season with one week left to go, but he should climb even higher in Week 18. The Saints will be without Chris Olave this week, freeing up 29 percent of the team’s targets. Johnson is a top-five fantasy option this week.
Sit: Tyler Warren, Colts
Just like with Pittman, Warren has fallen by the wayside as a fantasy option since Jones went down. His opportunity metrics have been largely unchanged, but the quality of his looks is in the gutter. PFF deemed 82 percent of his targets as catchable through 14 weeks. Only 63 percent of his targets have been catchable sans Jones. His fantasy output, in turn, has vanished.
