Identifying sleepers early can have a tremendous impact on your fantasy squad and the later rounds of your draft is typically the spot to take some chances. However, you shouldn’t forget that even if they aren’t drafted right away there are always players who slip under the radar. If someone comes out firing when the season starts don’t hesitate to pick them up because they could very well be the next big surprise performer. Look for players who will getting more opportunities and have the talent to break through.
Some players who could be undervalued because of previous injuries or a rough year the season before are included here as well because their situations will be better and they may slip in drafts.
Kyle Connor (WPG) - Connor was a player who mostly operated under the radar last season despite spending the majority of 2017-18 on Winnipeg’s top line. He produced 31 goals and 57 points in 76 games as a rookie. Connor also had 11 power-play points, while skating on the Jets’ number one unit. Riding shotgun with Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler will likely be the case for him again in 2018-19. Connor has already earned the trust of bench boss Paul Maurice after he averaged nearly 17 minutes per game as a 21-year-old. He should be able to top 200 shots on goal this campaign after he registered 2.53 shots per game a year ago. Connor is part of a deep Winnipeg offensive attack. He could get lost in the shuffle after poolies snag fellow Jets forwards Scheifele, Wheeler, Patrik Laine and Nikolaj Ehlers. Take advantage of that by snatching Connor up, as he will probably be a great value pick on draft day.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM) - Nugent-Hopkins was never going to have much fantasy value as Edmonton’s third-line center behind Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but that didn’t stop him from having some success in that role when he was healthy last year. His outlook improved considerably in March when he was shifted to left wing and placed in the top combination alongside McDavid. He exploded for 17 points, including eight goals, in the final 16 games of the year. Nugent-Hopkins was held off the scoresheet just five times during that span. He was limited to 62 games last year, but notched 24 goals and 24 assists. Edmonton has been searching for linemates for McDavid since the superstar center entered the league. He has played with a variety of players and expressed some frustration during the offseason over the rotating cast. McDavid wants a chance to build with stable wingers alongside him and Nugent-Hopkins has the potential to occupy one of those spots. They had more success together at the 2018 IIHF World Championship when Nugent-Hopkins generated eight points (five goals, three assists) in 10 matches. Ty Rattie was the third member of the combination in 2017-18 and should get another look as well. There is chemistry there, especially between Nugent-Hopkins and McDavid, which gives RNH tremendous upside going into the season.
Tomas Hertl (SJS) - Hertl appears to be on the brink of reaching his full potential following a strong finish to the 2017-18 season. He concluded the regular season with 13 points in 16 matches and then he shined in the playoffs with nine points in 10 contests, including a team-leading six goals. Hertl hasn’t been able to reach the 50-point mark yet in his career, but he tallied a personal best 22 goals last year and recorded 46 points in 79 games. The 24-year-old forward was signed to a four-year contract in the summer and the Sharks feel a breakout performance is right around the corner. Hertl is projected to play alongside Logan Couture and he should continue to see time on the top power-play unit. Look for him to reach another level this season and flirt with the 60-point plateau.
Nolan Patrick (PHI) - Patrick produced 13 goals and 30 points in 73 games during his rookie season, but he is poised to take a significant step forward in 2018-19. He accounted for eight goals and nine assists in the final 25 matches of the regular season. Patrick started to get more responsibilities in the second half and his average ice time per contest went from 12:14 over his first 40 appearances to 15:32 in his next 33 outings. He is projected to serve as Philadelphia’s second-line center this campaign. Being flanked by quality wingers like Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds or free-agent addition James van Riemsdyk should contribute to him reaching another gear. Patrick was also healthy going into the offseason after his previous summers were spent recovering from surgeries for a sports hernia and an abdominal injury. The second overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft has at least 50-point upside this year.
Alex DeBrincat (CHI) - DeBrincat led the Blackhawks with 28 goals and he registered 52 points in 82 games during his rookie season. The fact that he averaged just 14:48 of ice time per match and spent most of the year outside of the top-six forward group makes his success all the more impressive. DeBrincat is expected to get more chances to stay among Chicago’s top-two lines in 2018-19. Patrick Kane amassed 76 points in 82 contests, but his numbers went down following the departure of Artemi Panarin. DeBrincat could be in line to help Kane, but if that doesn’t work out then he could be back with Jonathan Toews. The 20-year-old forward had some success with Toews last year, but his opportunities in that spot were few and far between. DeBrincat went through some lengthy stretches with a goal, but if he can cement a spot on a scoring line then those droughts should be far less prevalent and he stands a legitimate chance to flirt with or surpass the 60-point mark in his sophomore campaign.
Bo Horvat (VAN) - Horvat may not fly off the board in fantasy drafts, but he has the potential to be a late-round steal. With the Sedin twins in retirement, Horvat is expected to play a key role with the organization moving forward. He was the team’s leading producer in 2016-17 with 52 points (20 goals, 32 assists). Horvat improved his points per game to 0.69 last campaign, but he was limited to 64 appearances. He collected 22 goals and 22 helpers, while upping his shots per game to a personal best 2.47. Horvat was credited with 158 shots over 81 games in 2016-17 and he reached that mark in 17 fewer outings last year. He also tied Brock Boeser for the team lead with 10 power-play goals. Horvat and Boeser had some chemistry on the same line. That could be a successful duo for Vancouver to build around. Horvat has 55-60 point potential in 2018-19.
Matthew Tkachuk (CGY) - Tkachuk took a step forward in 2017-18 during his sophomore season. He tallied 24 goals and posted 49 points despite being limited to 68 games after he had 13 goals and 48 points over 76 matches in his first NHL campaign. Tkachuk’s penalty minutes per game dropped from 1.38 to 0.90, but it’s clear that the pesky forward will be a solid contributor in that category. He was also credited with 80 hits and has averaged just over 1.0 hits per game in his career. Furthering his all-around value, Tkachuk paced the Flames with 10 power-play goals and placed third on the club with 17 points on the man advantage, while serving as a valuable net-front presence on the top unit. Calgary acquired Elias Lindholm from Carolina in the offseason and he could replace Michael Frolik on the second line to give Tkachuk and Mikael Backlund another offensive weapon to work with at 5-on-5. Tkachuk is likely to continue trending in the right direction as a talented agitator. He is a threat to record around 60 points and about 80 penalty minutes.
J.T. Miller (TBL) - Miller signed a five-year contract with the Lightning during the offseason after he posted 10 goals and 18 points in 19 games following his acquisition from the New York Rangers. He played alongside Brayden Point at first before moving to the top line alongside Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. Miller also added five goals and six points on the power play, while logging time on the first combination. His shots per game increased to 2.37 as a member of the Lightning, which is a significant step up from his career average of 1.64. Miller wrapped up the 2017-18 season with 23 goals, 58 points and 124 hits in 82 contests. Look for him to surpass the 60-point milestone for the first time in his career this season.
Jake Guentzel (PIT) - Guentzel didn’t live up to the hype last season, but he is back on the sleeper list going into 2018-19. He provided 22 goals and 48 points in 82 games in 2017-18, but heated up in the second half with 23 points in the final 30 matches of the regular season. Guentzel was also outstanding in the playoffs for second consecutive campaign with 10 goals and 21 points in 12 outings. He has amassed 42 points in his first 37 postseason appearances. If the playoff version of Guentzel shows up for the start of 2018-19 then he could be in the 60-70 point range. Guentzel is projected to spend more time alongside Sidney Crosby this year, which could help that breakout come to fruition.
Shea Theodore (VGK) - Several players on the Golden Knights had breakout years in 2017-18 and this season it could be Theodore’s turn. He didn’t start with Vegas last year, but compiled six goals and 29 points in 61 contests once he came up from the minors. Theodore operated at around a 40-point pace, which is a fairly good representation of where he could be heading in 2018-19. He led the team in average power-play time per game (2:33), which has the potential to push him closer to the 45-50 point range. Theodore also averaged a personal best 2.36 shots per game last year and he recorded 70 blocks. He has plenty of potential in the late rounds of your draft.
Honorable mentions:
Sam Reinhart (BUF) - Reinhart may finally live up to his potential as the second overall pick in the 2014 NHL Draft this year. The 22-year-old will have plenty of value if he plays alongside Jack Eichel and Jeff Skinner. Reinhart should find himself in a great spot to build off his success following the All-Star break when he amassed 15 goals and 30 points in 33 contests.
Pierre-Luc Dubois (CBJ) - Dubois seized Columbus’ first-line center spot during his rookie campaign and he is expected to improve in 2018-19. He compiled 26 points in 33 games during the second half and added four points in six playoff outings. Dubois also racked up 127 hits and 165 shots.
Pavel Buchnevich (NYR) - Buchnevich had some success on the top line alongside Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider when the trio was healthy. New head coach David Quinn is expected to give them another look and the 23-year-old could flourish with an increase in responsibilities.
Philipp Grubauer (COL) - Grubauer has plenty of upside in 2018-19 as a member of the Avalanche. Semyon Varlamov’s expiring contract, injury history and inconsistent play are plenty of red flags and Grubauer could take control of the crease.
Ryan Pulock (NYI) - There’s plenty of intrigue surrounding Pulock after he produced 10 goals and 32 points in 68 games last season. His bullet shot could make him a dangerous weapon for the top power-play unit. Pulock had five goals and 11 points on the man advantage. He also generated 184 shots, while averaging 1.3 blocks per game and 1.7 hits per game, so he can be a factor in multiple categories.
Travis Konecny (PHI) - Konecny shined when he was put alongside Sean Couturier and Claude Giroux last season. He collected 20 of his 24 goals and 34 of his 47 points in 43 games when the calendar turned to 2018. Konecny should take steps forward in 2018-19 if he maintains a spot on the Flyers’ top line.
Alex Galchenyuk (ARI) - Galchenyuk is likely to benefit from the change of scenery and a return to center. He is slated to line up as a top-two pivot for the Coyotes and could strike oil if he plays alongside Clayton Keller.
Jeff Carter (LAK) - Don’t forget about Carter. He was limited to 27 games last season, but still produced 13 goals and 22 points along with 85 shots. Carter may drop further in drafts this year and he shouldn’t because a 60-70 point effort should be in the cards for him.
Ondrej Kase (ANA) - Kase’s upside is hard to ignore. He had 20 goals on 146 shots and 38 points in 66 games last season despite averaging 13:55 of ice time per game. If he can land a top-six forward spot on the Ducks then his fantasy value will increase substantially.
Nick Bjugstad (FLA) - Bjugstad caught fire last season after he was shifted to the wing and played alongside Aleksander Barkov. He accounted for 10 goals and 27 points in the final 34 games of the year. Florida’s talented top-six forward group could help Bjugstad reach the 50-60 point range in 2018-19.
Valentin Zykov (CAR) - Zykov won’t enter the season with much fanfare, but there is big upside to be found. He starred in the AHL last season with a league-leading 33 goals, including 17 on the power play. Zykov also had three goals and seven points in 10 games with the Hurricanes during a late-season call up. If he sees more time with http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NHL/5282/Sebastian-AhoSebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen then he could be an absolute steal. Zykov would also have fantasy appeal if he lands a spot on the second line.
Petr Mrazek (CAR) - Carolina is taking another gamble on a number one goaltender in 2018-19 with Mrazek after Scott Darling struggled last year. They are both risks, but could pay off as late picks behind a strong defense corps and what is shaping up to be an improved offense.
Jeff Petry (MTL) - Petry is expected to enter the 2018-19 season as Montreal’s power-play quarterback because Shea Weber will start the year on the injury list. He stepped up for the Canadiens last campaign with 12 goals and 42 points in 82 games.
Valeri Nichushkin (DAL) - Nichushkin will return to the NHL after spending two years in the KHL. The big-bodied forward could bring some much-needed secondary scoring to the Stars.
Jack Roslovic (WPG) - Roslovic is considered a candidate to play on Winnipeg’s second line in 2018-19. If he logs time between Patrik Laine and Nikolaj Ehlers his fantasy value would skyrocket.
