With Fantasy Premier League managers beginning to select their squads, I’ll be taking a deeper look at players with price tags too favorable to ignore. Rather than telling you that Harry Kane is worth his £12.5m price tag or that Paul Pogba at £8.0m is a bargain, the players tipped are those for whom you may have not dug deep enough to see their hidden potential. The season preview series, which will feature two positions in each edition, will fall under one of two classifications below.
Breakout Candidate - A player who has the potential to greatly out score their starting price and exceed expectations placed on them going into the season.
Value Pick - A player who is given a lower starting price than the bulk of comparable talents, but will likely perform on par with those priced ahead of them.
Here is some food for though on some goalkeepers and defenders…
Goalkeepers
Breakout Candidates
Jack Butland, Stoke City
Starting Price: £5.0m Ownership: 2.8% 2016/17 Points: 20
Priced below the goalkeeper ceiling (£5.5m), Butland will resume the number one duties at Stoke after a broken leg limited him to just five starts last season. The 24-year-old is just one full season removed from an explosive 2015/16 when he averaged 4.3 points per match and finished third in saves (102) and fifth in clean sheets (10). Compared to the final rankings from 2016/17, those numbers would have placed him firmly in the top-10 of each category. The promise of a strong season does however run deeper than his previous form, as Joe Hart’s move to West Ham means Butland will have serious competition for the England shirt ahead of the 2018 World Cup. With similar value to Kasper Schmeichel and Fraser Forster, Butland has all the attributes to be a top-five goalkeeper this term.
Mathew Ryan, Brighton and Hove Albion
Starting Price: £4.5m Ownership: 1.6% 2016/17 Points: N/A
Slated to be Brighton’s first-choice goalkeeper, the 25-year-old is a low-risk choice with a very high ceiling. The Australia international will face a heavy work in his debut Premier League campaign, but last season saw Tom Heaton thrive for Burnley under the similar circumstances—he led all FPL keepers in total points (149), bonus points (21) and saves (142). While Ryan moves to the top-flight much less seasoned than Heaton, the two-time Belgian Pro League Goalkeeper of the Year (2014 and 2015) has my backing for a top-10 caliber season.
Value Picks
Kasper Schmeichel, Leicester City
Starting Price: £5.0m Ownership: 2.4% 2016/17 Points: 109
Leicester City opens the season with a rough fixture list—Arsenal (A), Brighton (H), Manchester United (A), Chelsea (H), Huddersfield (A) and Liverpool (H). However, the ground lost is made up for when it matters most—Schmeichel boasts an appealing 2.6 fixture difficulty average over the course of the last 10 weeks. The Denmark international is also coming off a noteworthy FPL season despite missing nine games due to injury. Schmeichel finished as a top-10 keeper in saves (113), clean sheets (8), fantasy points (109), with a bonus points total (10) surpassed by only FPL elite Tom Heaton (21). A worthy FPL number one outside of his early schedule, the 30-year-old is a first-rate differential alternative to both Heaton and Jordan Pickford.
Heurelho Gomes, Watford
Starting Price: £4.5m Ownership: 2.2% 2016/17 Points: 113
Priced at £4.5m, the Brazilian is undervalued considering how reliable he has been since joining Watford. Over the last two seasons, only Petr Cech (293), Hugo Lloris (283) and David de Gea (278) have scored more points than Gomes (270). Last season, despite nearly suffering relegation and conceding 64 goals in 38 appearances, Gomes ranked eighth in total points (113) and third in saves (117) last season. The 36-year-old is a clear-cut starter available at the same price of his backup, Costel Pantilimon, and positioned outside the top-15 in keeper ownership. All the signs point to Gomes as a sturdy budget choice in 2017/18.
Defenders
Breakout Candidates
DeAndre Yedlin, Newcastle United
Starting Price: £4.5 Ownership: 5.4% 2016/17 Points: N/A
Yedlin failed to impress during his lone year at Tottenham, but made great strides in his development last season at Newcastle. Equipped with a similar skill set but priced much cheaper than premium-attacking fullback Kyle Walker (£6.5), the United States international has the potential to be a top-15 defender. Yedlin provided 32 key passes and averaged 1.5 per match last term in the Championship, while Walker recorded 34 with a per-match-average of 1.03. If the 24-year-old can produce close to the form and five assists he pinged during the Magpies promotion campaign, his FPL impact could be on par with Bournemouth’s Adam Smith during 2016/17.
Arthur Masuaku, West Ham
Starting Price: £4.5 Ownership: 0.2% 2016/17 Points: 34
A situation to keep an eye on is the left-back spot at West Ham, with Masuaku (£4.5m) and Aaron Cresswell (£5.0m) set to battle for the starting role. Masuaku was limited to just 13 appearances in his first season as a Hammer, however, the former Olympiacos man was statistically more effective than Cresswell. The 23-year-old, on a per-match-basis, was a more accurate passer (87.5%), completed passes per game (36) and recorded more successful dribbles (2.3). The relevance of the mentioned metrics: should Masuaku win the starting role, it appears his output would exceed his counterpart’s. Cresswell, who is two years removed from successive two-goal four-assist seasons, managed only one assist and outscored the Frenchman by just 26 fantasy points despite making twice as many appearances last season. Priced less than Cresswell, the statistical data favors Masuaku as the Hammer’s fullback to have at your disposal.
Value Picks
Harry Maguire, Leicester City
Starting Price: £5.0m Ownership: 1.5% 2016/17 Points: 71
The big-money arrival from Hull City will be handed a chance to impress early on with Robert Huth sidelined until September. Surprisingly, bearing in mind how good he was last season, just a sliver of the FPL universe owns Maguire. Leicester’s difficult schedule to open the season may hinder his value but, with allegiance to his offensive upside, don’t write him off just yet. For the Tigers in their relegation campaign, Maguire scored two goals and grabbed three fantasy assists. In addition to being one of 10 defenders to score at least two goals and recorded three or more fantasy assists, his 34 shots taken matched Patrick van Aanholt for second most behind Marcos Alonso (46). All things considered: Maguire is a mid-budget option for owners that want to build a backline with attacking potential.
Josh Tymon, Stoke City
Starting Price: £4.5 Ownership: 0.1% 2016/17 Points: 9
Erik Pieters has held a firm grip on the starting left-back spot since becoming manager Mark Hughes first signing at Stoke City four years ago. The 28-year-old is also fresh off his best FPL campaign, during which he led all Potters defenders in total points (104), bonus points (9) and minutes played (3151). However, there is a new face at the Bet365 Stadium: Josh Tymon. The summer signing from Hull City has been brought in to push Pieters for a starting place, on the heels of a 13-month span that saw him progress from an England U17 debutante to a key contributor for the U20s. Whether or not he will see enough minutes to be an FPL factor remains to be seen, but at the price of reasonable price of £4.5m, he’s definitely worth owning. The verdict: should Pieters suffer an injury or endure a run of poor form, Tymon would likely be the man Hughes calls on to replace the former.
