Stag’s Take – Gameweek 28
From a personal point of view, there was no better time than BGW27 to score 36 points when the average Top 10k score was 40 points and the global average was 35 points. In fact, when you rank players by overall ownership and exclude Liverpool defender/goalkeepers, the first player to score over five points is David De Gea (13.5% owned). Amongst the Top 10k’s most-owned players, Sead Kolasinac, the 13th most popular player, is the first with over five. The best course of action seems to be to leave those games behind us and to press ahead again as the Premier League returns midweek with a full complement of fixtures.
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Injuries causing a rethink?
It wasn’t just Manchester United who suffered injuries en masse over the weekend as Herrera, Mata, and Lingard all hobbled off and Rashford played for 90 minutes on one leg. Andrew Robertson suffered an arm injury in a clash with Romelu Lukaku in the same game whilst Roberto Firmino looks set to miss at least the Watford game if not a lot more after being forced off in an injury-riddled opening 45 minutes at Old Trafford. In the League Cup final, Manchester City lost the extremely important duo of Aymeric Laporte and Fernandinho with injuries which at time of writing remain without a prognosis. Outside the Top Six, FPL darling Aaron Wan-Bissaka missed Saturday’s victory over Leicester City with a hamstring injury; he looks set to miss a few games too.
All of these injuries give food for thought when it comes to planning for the upcoming blanks and doubles. Many FPL teams have clouds hanging over the fitness of at least two players, potentially making it a lot harder to field a strong DGW32 squad (particularly for those planning to BB that week) and potentially even more so for those who intended to dead-end their side in BGW31. Maybe the strategies which encompass an early wildcard (but potentially now an even earlier WC) such as WC30, FH31, TC/BB32, tough 33, and TC/BB35 should be further up in peoples’ considerations now. This isn’t a decision I think any manager should be making before Tuesday’s deadline, but it is something to mull over in the coming days.
A lesson learnt for me (but I may be fortunate)
Ahead of BGW27, I made two transfers, both of which I am deeply unhappy with upon reflection. I sent Eden Hazard packing to make space for Felipe Anderson, a move I believe I carried out largely due to the influence of groupthink. I also made room for Jamie Vardy and finally rid myself of Aboubakar Kamara. It is the latter move where I think there is a lesson to be learnt.
For weeks, I have waxed lyrical about Ashley Barnes’ underlying stats and for weeks, the player has matched his xG (the second highest in the last four gameweeks) and played phenomenally. Spurs were not up to the standards we expect from them in BGW27 – but why did I let such a short-termist view, ignoring him because of one game, blind me when Barnes’ Burnley have no BGW, Barnes is on penalty duty, and Burnley themselves are in a purple patch. Another player I should have looked at with similar circumstances, one I haven’t been pushing in these columns I should admit, is Salomon Rondon. He’s scoring quite well, he is a vital cog in Rafa’s push for survival, and Newcastle don’t blank in GW31 (they may in BGW33). Let’s not even get started talking about Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez, a player I have somehow managed to go without all season. I permitted Vardy’s price to distract me: “Of course he’ll do well; he’s 8.8 and scored 20 times last season,” I subconsciously thought. In the end, the Foxes didn’t really threaten as they fell to a 4-1 defeat at the King Power in what transpired to be Claude Puel’s final game at the helm. Price does not always correlate with performance – excellent value exists in the lower price brackets, particularly amongst forwards at the moment.
However, as luck would have it, I am now an optimistic Vardy owner. Many managers will be suddenly considering a punt on the Englishman, whilst I already happen to be strapped into the front seat of this hype train: Destination? Easy Street ‘til GW36. No side has a better set of upcoming fixtures than Leicester (BHA, wat, FUL, bur, BOU, hud, NEW, wha). Furthermore, this particular Leicester squad have a track record in hitting a strong patch of form in the wake of a manager’s departure.
After Claudio Ranieri departed on February 23rd 2017, Leicester won five consecutive PL games against Liverpool, Hull, West Ham, Stoke, and Sunderland, scoring 13 goals. Jamie Vardy (caution: potential confirmation bias is present) scored five of those goals, assisting another two by Transfermarkt’s non-FPL standards. Seven months later, when Craig Shakespeare left the club on October 17th 2017, the Foxes won their first two games (Swansea, Everton) before a draw with Stoke, a loss to Man City, and a draw with West Ham which preceded a four game run of victories. Vardy was less prolific in this resurgence, scoring twice in the first five games. After the ignominy of the 4-1 defeat at home to Palace, few sides have move to prove than Leicester as they face Brighton in another King Power Stadium encounter. Vardy, who reportedly had his differences with Puel and who was dropped in GW26, has more to prove than most.
Watford attracting attention
An eye-catching 5-1 away win over Cardiff and a hat-trick for Gerard Deulofeu have spurred on quite a bit of talk about Watford’s assets. However, with a blank to come in BGW31 and a tough set of fixtures bridging the gap until then (liv, LEI, man), I don’t think any Hornets should be on your radar for a while longer.
Captaincy Corner
Paul Pogba (Crystal Palace A)
In a difficult week of fixtures, a midfielder featuring for a decimated Manchester United heading to London seems like the best option of all to me... somehow. Pogba’s penalty duties are the reason why I think he has added scope to do well compared the other available options, as Crystal Palace are joint-top (with Brighton and Manchester United) for penalties conceded so far this term (13).
Beyond this, Pogba’s underlying statistics remain good. Between GW23 and GW27, he is joint-top of the league for shots (19) with (who else?) my plague Raúl Jiménez, with a dozen of those attempts coming from inside the area. His xG from open-play remains low, but that is a theme with Pogba in the Solskjaer-era that I am beginning to ignore.
Mohamed Salah (Watford H)
Liverpool are slowing down and Mo Salah may not have made his way out of Luke Shaw’s pocket yet after quiet display at Old Trafford in Gameweek 27, however you cannot discount the league leaders. Earlier this term, they looked to be floundering and found a way to return to their groove, and with that turnaround in mind I suspect that Mo Salah will yet-again be the most captained player amongst active teams in GW28. Doubts over Sergio Agüero’s game time after playing all 120 minutes on Sunday whilst Gabriel Jesus mean that he is omitted from this section of the article this week, though I do expect him to get at least 20 minutes on Wednesday at home to West Ham. Keep an eye on Guardiola’s pre-match press conference as this may reveal more about his expected minutes and may propel Aguero to top of the best-captain options leaderboard.
Raúl Jiménez (Huddersfield A)
During BGW27, I pondered the idea of solely targeting Fulham and Huddersfield with some fellow FPL managers. Their reactions were broadly positive, perhaps highlighting the opprobrium these clubs’ defences deserve this season. In the last five gameweeks, they lead the league for shots conceded, shots in the box conceded, shots on target conceded, and the place first and third for big chances conceded (Chelsea are second courtesy of the 6-0 drubbing by Man City). The unfortunate records extended into the expected-statistic universe too, with Fulham (11.1) considerably worse than Huddersfield (9.8) though the Terriers are still more porous than any other PL side.
It’s a good fixture for “Jimmy”, who broke double-figures on Saturday, scoring his 10th PL goal of the season from the spot. It’s so good, I may even bring him in to replace Marcus Rashford if his injury turns out to be a serious one.
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Stag has been providing #FPL Tips since July 2015 and has been a contributor for Rotoworld.com since August 2016. He is a self-proclaimed wannabe fantasy football genius, a student, and die-hard tea enthusiast.
