One month from today, the Premier League’s first matchweek will be complete as Xabi Alonso’s first Chelsea match goes down against Fulham at Craven Cottage.
Those who acted early are being rewarded but there is still so much to sort this summer and room to improve is all over the board.
Reigning champions Arsenal look capable of defending their title while Manchester City and Manchester United are among the sides dreaming of a title run.
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Tottenham Hotspur look to have improved dramatically while Newcastle United could be going in the other direction and Aston Villa are dealing with massive upheaval but have been very active in addressing their losses.
Knowing that every team can dream of a title thanks to Leicester City one decade ago, we know that even the Foxes faithful would agree that they smashed through their ceiling that year.
So we’ll keep the term ceiling for best-case scenario, floor for likely zone of finish, and basement for about as bad as it could go for a team.
The basements: How many Premier League clubs could be relegated this season?
Let’s start with the three who are always in trouble — newly-promoted Coventry City, Hull City, and Ipswich Town will all be expected to be involved in relegation scraps. Coventry will have more momentum than the rest when it comes to hope, while Hull City seem the unlikeliest to stay up as they were the unlikeliest to go up.
There are also five “smaller” clubs in Europe whose depth could cost them like it cost Nottingham Forest last season. The Tricky Trees were able to climb out of the bottom three despite a run to the Europa League Final, but will Sunderland, Bournemouth, Palace, and/or Brighton be able to do the same. Brighton feel like they have the depth to avoid that part of the table. Maybe Bournemouth, too, but both have new bosses in town.
New manager uncertainty will also ask questions of Fulham and Nottingham Forest, while Leeds and Newcastle have serious questions of star power even if Daniel Farke and Eddie Howe enjoy status and tenure at their clubs.
Bottom line: We’ll presume Brighton and Newcastle have enough to stay above the fray. Nine teams have a basement of the bottom three and life in the Championship for the 2027-28 season.
The throne room: How many Premier League clubs win the title this season?
Last season we argued that the Premier League had as many title contenders as ever before only to be let down by the cast of characters chasing the crown. Arsenal won it and Man City was clearly second-best as Liverpool wildly disappointed in their title defense.
But if we’re talking ceilings, we can look beyond City and Arsenal here to scenarios that see teams leap up a few places higher than expectations.
Arsenal: Won it last year and so far have only lost Leandro Trossard.
Man City; Enzo Maresca isn’t a far cry stylistically from Pep Guardiola and this team was nasty when healthy before adding Elliot Anderson (and losing Bernardo Silva).
Liverpool: They won the title two seasons ago and now have a healthy Alexander Isak. Florian Wirtz is a gem and the Reds could find their best attacking form to outscore still-lacking defensive depth.
Chelsea: The Blues are loaded in talent and Xabi Alonso has led a surprise title run in the Bundesliga. With no European schedule congestion, it’s not crazy to consider a return to divisional silverware.
Tottenham Hotspur: This would be the craziest rise but it still feels as likely as Man United or Villa making a true title charge with their schedule congestion. Remember that Spurs’ struggles were dri
Manchester United: The Champions League is going to ask a lot but United have a summer under Michael Carrick and depth in the important positions.
Aston Villa: Unai Emery has some huge holes to fill but he’s been able to fill them in the past while dealing with tournament football.
Ceilings, floors, and basements for all 20 Premier League teams one month before the season
Arsenal
Ceiling: 1st
Floor: 4th
Basement: 6th
Aston Villa
Ceiling: 1st
Floor: 8th
Basement: 10th
Brentford
Ceiling: 7th
Floor: 12th
Basement: 18th
Bournemouth
Ceiling: 7th
Floor: 13th
Basement: 19th
Brighton & Hove Albion
Ceiling: 5th
Floor: 10th
Basement: 14th
Chelsea
Ceiling: 1st
Floor: 6th
Basement: 10th
Coventry City
Ceiling: 14th
Floor: 17th
Basement: 20th
Crystal Palace
Ceiling: 10th
Floor: 14th
Basement: 18th
Everton
Ceiling: 5th
Floor: 9th
Basement: 15th
Fulham
Ceiling: 7th
Floor: 12th
Basement: 18th
Hull City
Ceiling: 16th
Floor: 18th
Basement: 20th
Ipswich Town
Ceiling: 13th
Floor: 17th
Basement: 20th
Leeds United
Ceiling: 7th
Floor: 12th
Basement: 18th
Liverpool
Ceiling: 1st
Floor: 4th
Basement: 6th
Manchester City
Ceiling: 1st
Floor: 2nd
Basement: 5th
Manchester United
Ceiling: 1st
Floor: 5th
Basement: 10th
Newcastle United
Ceiling: 10th
Floor: 12th
Basement: 16th
Nottingham Forest
Ceiling: 9th
Floor: 13th
Basement: 19th
Sunderland
Ceiling: 10th
Floor: 16th
Basement: 18th
Tottenham Hotspur
Ceiling: 1st
Floor: 7th
Basement: 11th
