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-800 Vasyl Lomachenko (14-2: 11 KOs) vs. +550 Richard Commey (30-3: 27 KOs)
The Matrix returns to theaters in a few weeks, but first, we get boxing’s version of The Matrix when two-time Olympic gold medalist — and one of the most skillful boxers in the game — Vasyl Lomachenko takes on Richard Commey under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden. Lomachenko looks to make another statement on his journey back to championship status.
Backdrop
Lomachenko checks off most of the requirements for being an elite boxer: he has gorgeous footwork, uses the perfect amount of patience, can smell a wounded prey and performs on a big stage. Besides not possessing one-punch knockout power, Vasyl Lomachenko is right there with anybody in the world skills wise. After returning from the longest layoff of his pro career, fans and critics dismissed Lomachenko (even if slightly) after his razor-thin loss to Teófimo López last fall.
The Ukrainian master boxer bounced back in a big way with a flawless TKO victory over a talented challenger in Masayoshi Nakatani. Lomachenko is on the path of vengeance to get his lion’s share of belts back and Commey is another obstacle on his path back to the top of the mountain. Though Commey has faced top competition on big stages, he is in the wrong place at the wrong time come Saturday night. I expect Loma to be zeroed in on this fight.
Who Wins?
It’s hard to imagine Commey winning this fight as he is just a piece of a bigger puzzle that gets completed when Lomachenko gets his title shot. Loma is a man on a mission and has all the tools to put on another spectacular performance. He proved he is not complacent with his career after the big statement he made against Nakatani and I feel like he will put on another masterful showcase to remind the boxing world he means business. Commey is a fierce competitor with a knack for making his fights technical brawls. He is long and has good power in both hands. Commey also has the ability to swarm on his opponent when they’re hurt.
With all that being said, Lomachenko, a more compactly built physique, has faced larger men and doesn’t have a problem finding a home for his pinpoint left hand. What will be interesting to watch for is if Commey makes an adjustment in his punch style. The Ghana native can be a little loopy with his punches which can lead to the speed advantage being much greater in favor of Loma. I very much like Loma to avoid getting embarrassed and to win in a big way. Lomachenko wins
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Does the Fight go the Distance? +200 YES, -275 NO
The biggest gift and curse for Commey is his lengthy reach. While he can touch his opponents from a longer range, that also presents an opportunity for his opponents — especially a crafty fighter like Lomachenko — to catch him while overextending. I’ve been on a nice roll of picking these big fights to go the distance, but I heavily lean towards Lomachenko getting the job done inside of the distance.
I know Commey has a lot of heart and won’t make it easy, but I got Lomachenko finding his timing and controlling distance and dropping Commey several times before he ultimately gets the KO around the 10th round of action. I have a hard time seeing this fight going the distance. Lomachenko via TKO/KO inside Distance
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