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How to bet Ohio St vs Wisconsin, Arizona vs Oregon and More!

Justice Sueing

Justice Sueing

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down Pac-12 matchups between Oregon vs Arizona and California at Colorado, plus two Big Ten games and Gonzaga vs Santa Clara.

Wisconsin at Ohio State (-7.5): O/U 132.5

We have the only meeting of the season between Wisconsin and Ohio State and this should make for a thrilling contest.

The Buckeyes are a much better home team than road team this season. Ohio State stands at 8-2 when at home compared to 3-8 on the road or a neutral court.

In four home Big Ten games, Ohio State played Rutgers, Purdue, Minnesota and Iowa. The Buckeyes averaged 45.2% from three, a 35% offensive rebounding percentage and 19.2% defensive turnover percentage.

Wisconsin got Tyler Wahl back in the previous game and I didn’t mean much as the Badgers scored 16 first-half points at home to Illinois and lost 61-51.

The Badgers are 9th or worse out of the Big Ten’s 15 teams in offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, three-point and two-point percentages, plus a miserable 59.7% from the free-throw line.

The Buckeyes rank third in the Big Ten in scoring, averaging 76.7 points per contest, so Wisconsin will need to match that and I am not sure they can.

Ohio State is 1-6 in the last seven games with a lone with at home over Iowa, while Wisconsin is 1-6 in the previous seven with a home win versus Penn State, so this is a crucial game for both squads.

The Buckeyes lone win was 93-77 at home over Illinois and Wisconsin’s was 63-60 at home versus Penn State.

Ohio State has been one of the unluckiest teams in the nation this season with four losses of four or fewer points in Big Ten Play and a 0-2 mark in OT games. They won’t be so unlucky here.

Give me the home team. I played Ohio State -7.5 at -104 odds and would go to -8.

Pick: Ohio State -7.5 (1u)

Michigan at Northwestern (-3): O/U 139.0

The first meeting between Northwestern and Michigan had 74 possessions, which is tied for the most possessions in a Northwestern game all season.

Northwestern was up by 9 at halftime of that game before Michigan took over in the second half. The Wildcats will want to avenge the 85-78 road loss at Michigan on Jan. 15. The Wolverines won one true road game all season and that was at last-place Minnesota.

After the Wildcats meeting versus the Wolverines, Northwestern went 3-1, beating Wisconsin, Nebraska and Minnesota before losing at Iowa. The Wildcats scored 32, 43, 45 and 39 points in the first half of the previous four games for 39.7 points per game.

Michigan has also allowed 34 or more first half points in four of the last five road/neutral games. The Wolverines do not force turnovers (324th) and play the second-quickest tempo in league play overall and on defense, so the Wildcats should have plenty of possessions again.

This will be Northwestern’s fifth game in 11 nights due to a COVID outbreak earlier in the year, so Northwestern first half is a better look than the full game. Iowa caught fire late in the second half versus Northwestern, so they will want to bounce back here against an opponent they want revenge on.

A quick start is evident for Northwestern tonight. I played the first half Team Total Over 33.5 at -104 odds. I would go to 34.5 for 0.5u. Michigan has not visited Northwestern since February of 2020, so I expect the crowd to be rocking.

Pick: Northwestern 1H Team Total Over 33.5 (0.5u)

California at Colorado (-15.5): O/U 129.5

Let’s take a look at another revenge game as Colorado will look to beat Califorina after suffering a road defeat at Cal on New Year’s Eve, 80-76.

At home, Colorado is posting the best Pac-12 numbers at home on the defensive side of the ball. The Buffaloes own the top rankings for two defenisve efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, defensive rebounding percentage and three-point percentage.

California is 0-6 in true road games this season with a 28.6% from three (349th), 44.2% effective field goal percentage (331st) and 35.2% defensive rebounding percentage (337th).

In conference road games, the Golden Bears 10th or worse in the Pac-12 in 10 out of the 12 team category stats I handicap on Barttorvik. In 11 conference games, Cal’s defense ranks last in adjusted efficiency (113.6), effective field goal percentage (54.9%), turnover percentage (15.3%) and two-point percentage (57.2%).

I expect Colorado to get off to a quick start in this game after trailing 39-27 in the first half of the loss to California.

Colorado averages 34.5 first half points per game this season and 37.1 at home. Colorado went Under 34.5 in the past three home games, but this is a terrific bounce back spot at home after two road losses.

Colorado should have no problems rolling California in this rematch, so give me the Buffaloes First Half Team Total Over 34.5 at -110 odds. I would play this at 35.5 as well and lean the first half spread of -8 and full game of -15.5.

Pick: Colorado 1H Team Toal Over 34.5 (1.5u)

Oregon at Arizona (-8): O/U 151.5

Arizona lost 87-68 on the road at Oregon on Jan. 14, a Saturday, before going on a four-game winning streak.

Revenge is on the mind of the Wildcats. Since that loss to Oregon, Arizona has beaten USC and UCLA at home, plus Washington and Washington State on the road.

Arizona lost to Washington State at home by 13 points earlier this season, then turned around and beat the Cougars on the road by five points. I expect a better result for the Wildcats as they are the home team in this revenge game and not the road team like they were versus Washington State.

The Ducks have won four of the past five games, but on the road, Oregon is a different team. Oregon is 2-3 away from home this season with wins over California and Utah, but losses at UCLA, Colorado, and Stanford.

Oregon is shooting an abysmal 27.4% from three in six road games (340th) and hitting 68.6% from the free-throw line (235th). I am not sure how the Ducks get enough offense on the road, especially since the Ducks are a poor offensive-rebounding team away from home (262nd) and do not force turnovers overall (260th).

Arizona is 11-1 at home this season and while they have not shot the ball well from deep in conference action (30.8%), Oregon’s three-point defense is near the bottom of the Pac-12 (34.1%), plus the Ducks’ defensive efficiency is ranked 8th out of 12th in the Pac-12.

The Wildcats should have their way in this game, so give me Arizona at -8 and -110 odds. There are -7.5’s for -120 odds available.

Pick: Arizona -8 (1u)

Santa Clara at Gonzaga (-13.5): O/U 160.5

We haven’t bet Gonzaga much this season, but I like this spot for the Bulldogs.

I target the Gonzaga 1H Team Total because I believe they get out to a quick start at home and make things right for the fans that waited two weeks to see Gonzaga bounce back following its first home conference loss since 2018.

Oddly enough, Gonzaga played Santa Clara that following game in 2018 and won 75-60. Let’s see if history repeats itself.

Gonzaga has lost four games this season and in the very next outing, the Bulldogs scored 41 first half points on Kentucky, 40 on Xavier and Kent State, plus 47 first half points on Pacific.

The Bulldogs are coming off back-to-back road wins with 99 and 82 points scored. Gonzaga scored 23 and 24 points in the first 10 minutes of those games, so let’s hope that rolls over versus Santa Clara, a team that led Gonzaga 25-15 after 10 minutes in their previous meeting.

Gonzaga trailed Santa Clara at half but ended up scoring 36 after 20 minutes and came back to win the game 81-76.

Against top 100 teams, Gonzaga averages 37.1 first half points per game, but in the last three home games, the Bulldogs scored 33, 61 and 56 first half points.

Santa Clara is coming off 46 points allowed to Pacific in the first half of their previous game, so this is a good spot for Gonzaga to go ballistic. I laid the big number on Gonzaga’s 1H Team Total Over 41.5 at -120 odds. I would go to 42.5 for a 0.5 unit.

Pick: Gonzaga 1H Team Total Over 41.5 (1u)

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