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Northeastern at Georgia State (-7.5): O/U 139.5
Friday’s College Basketball slate features one afternoon game, and I see value on the underdog.
Georgia State is a -7.5 point favorite. Georgia State easily won its opener in a tune-up game versus Brewton-Parker College (97-37), while Northeastern led at halftime versus Colgate but eventually lost, 65-58.
Georgia State was picked to win the Sun Belt Conference Preseason Poll per the coaches poll, while Northeastern was picked to finish second in the CAA Preseason Poll.
Northeastern received four transfers, including two crucial pieces, Tyreek Scott-Grayson (UAB) and Nikola Djogo (Notre Dame). The Huskies also brought back Jason Strong, Jahmyl Telfort and Shaquille Walters to give Northeastern a semi-deep roster.
Georgia State is an older team, with four of the top seven projected contributors being seniors and the other three being juniors. Both teams are pretty even on the talent spectrum, with Georgia State having a slight edge.
Most models project this as a -4 spread or less for Georgia State and I believe their blowout over Brewton-Parker College enhanced this spread.
When Northeastern is a road underdog with a spread of +1 to +8, they are 5-2-1 ATS over the last eight games (71.4%), per NBC’s Edge Finder. They were 5-2 in the last seven until they pushed against Colgate in what looked like an easy cover and potential upset.
Northeastern won the rebounding battle over Colgate (39-32), but the offensive rebounding advantage makes your eyes pop. The Huskies grabbed 32 defensive boards and limited the Raiders to four offensive rebounds. Colgate had 32 rebounds all game and Northeastern had 32 defensive but lost.
Last season, Georgia State was a bottom-50 squad when it came to allowing its opponent to grab offensive rebounds. Giving Northeastern second-chance points off a loss is not a recipe for success and I think we will see plenty of it.
We also have two teams that played at opposite paces last season. If Northeastern slows the tempo down and has a defense that ranks right outside the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency again, well, the Huskies should hang around and keep this a single-digit game.
Back Northeastern down to +6.
Pick: Northeastern +7.5 (1u)
Texas State at LSU (-14.5): O/U 137.5
Trap game and test for the LSU Tigers.
Texas State will be undersized versus LSU, but the Bobcats’ defense can force the Tigers into turnovers and missed shots.
Last season, Texas State finished 15th in defensive turnover percentage (22.7%) and 11th in non-steal turnover percentage (12.6%). The Bobcats also played at one of the slowest paces in college basketball, while LSU played at one of the quickest tempos.
That will be the name of the game, which team slows who down or speeds the other up.
LSU won the opener over Louisiana Monroe, 101-39. LSU was up 52-20 then held its opponent to 4-of-28 shooting in the second half. That will not happen here as Louisiana Monroe is a bottom-100 team, and Texas State participated in March Madness last season.
Per Texas State’s athletic department, “Dating back to Jan. 1, 2021, Texas State has not lost a contest by more than one possession since falling to Louisiana at Lafayette, La., 83-77, in overtime on Friday, Jan. 1, 2021.”
That is 13-4 on the ML (76.5%) and 10-6-1 ATS (62.5%), including the ATS and ML loss to Louisiana Lafayette, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
This could be a hold-your-nose and backdoor cover type of game but expect Texas State to keep it respectable in the first half and use its defense to slow LSU’s high-tempo offense down a notch.
I would play Texas State down to +13. I make this a -12 game for LSU.
Pick: Texas State +14.5 (1u)
Virginia Tech (-9.5) at Navy: 136.5
Navy upset Virginia 66-58 in the season-opener and now are a +9.5 home underdog tag versus Virginia Tech.
The Midshipmen are live to get the upset here, and my models make this a -4/-4.5 game in favor of V-Tech.
Navy hit 52.4% from three versus Virginia and held the Cavaliers to 25% from deep. The Midshipmen out-rebounded the Cavaliers 35-30 on the glass.
Virginia Tech throttled Maine, 82-47, but the Black Bears are a bottom-50 College Basketball this season, so not much stock should be put into that blowout.
The Hokies’ Keve Aluma will be the best player and the largest when he takes the floor.
Standing at 6-foot-9, Aluma is the tallest player on either starting lineup, so expect the rebounding battle to play a vital role for Navy again, who was undersized against Virginia.
Last season, Navy was 7-2 ATS at home and 8-1 on the ML. They were the favorites in every game. The only loss came against Army, go figure.
As a home underdog, Navy is 1-3 ATS since 2019 (25%). On the other hand, V-Tech is 2-5 ATS as a road favorite since 2019 (28.5%) and 4-3 on the ML (57.1%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
The Hokies have not been a road favorite out of conference play since 2018.
This is a tough spot for V-Tech as to where Navy is riding a high and has the chance to knock off two ACC squads early in the season.
Grab Navy and the points as they are live to get another upset.
Pick: Navy +9.5 (1u)
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Robert Morris at Kentucky (-23.5): O/U 144
Robert Morris will travel to Rupp Arena to face the Kentucky Wildcats in their home opener. I am from the Pittsburgh area, grew up 25 minutes from Robert Morris. This game could and should get ugly.
Big Blue nation lost to Duke in the season-opener, so all the frustration of an early-season loss will be taken out on Robert Morris.
Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe had 17 points and 19 rebounds versus Duke, while Savir Wheeler posted 16 points and 10 assists. Robert Morris has Enoch Cheeks (12 points, 10 rebounds), but other than that, nothing much to brag about.
The Colonials return two starters and three letter-winners from last year. A total of nine new players make up the 2021-22 roster for RMU. It sounds a lot like Kentucky, except we know the talent level difference.
Robert Morris only scored 59 points against UCF in the opener, so I doubt they hit 60 points in this matchup. I liked Kentucky’s Team Total of 83.5, but if they get out to a quick start, we should hit our bet regardless.
Kentucky is 41-4 in Rupp Arena openers and 12-0 under John Calipari.
The Wildcats head coach also grew up around Pittsburgh, Moon Township to be exact, the same town Robert Morris is located.
Expect Calipari to show no love in the first half but maybe some respect in the second half to his hometown college and pull the starters early.
If this spread was -10, this bet would be a 1.5-2 unit wager. If Kentucky does not cover the first half spread of -12.5/-13, that will leave the door open for a second half bet on the Wildcats.
I expect Big Blue’s crowd to be hype and Kentucky to dominate from the opening tip against Robert Morris, so I will play the first half spread of -12.5 out to -13.
I grabbed Kentucky 1H -12.5 at -115 odds. I would play it at -13 but nothing past -14 for 1u.
Pick: Kentucky 1H -12.5 (1u)
Massachusetts at Yale (-1): O/U 145.5
These two squads meet for the first time since the epic 2019 OT that finished 83-80.
I bet on UMass consistently last season because they had one of my favorite players in the entire country, Tre Mitchell. However, Mitchell transferred to Texas, and now, we get to fade the Minutemen all year.
UMass beat UMBC in the season-opener, 77-60, but were out-rebounded (45-37) and shot 23.5% from three (4/18).
Not very impressive basketball if you ask me. UMass also went down 15-2 in that game before rallying back, so UMBC is bad, really bad.
The Minutemen have 12 games dating back to 2006 against Ivy League schools. When they are the underdog, UMass is 1-5 on the ML (16.6%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
With UMass struggling to find success as the dog versus Ivy League schools, I turn to Yale’s homecourt advantage. The Bulldogs are 12-3 on the ML (80%) and 9-6 ATS (60%) in the past 15 games.
The Ivy League took last year off, so you better believe that arena will be rocking.
The Bulldogs also won nine straight games against non-conference opponents in the friendly confines of Lee Amphitheater. Over the last eight seasons, they are 81-20 on the ML at the Lee Amphitheater (80.2%).
I grabbed the ML at -115 and would play out to -130 before playing the -1.
The fair price on this game should be Yale -2, but I expect a bigger win without Mitchell playing for UMass.
Pick: Yale ML (1u)
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