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Odds are opening lines courtesy of PointsBet
Texas A&M (-3) vs. Wake Forest: O/U 145.0
The O/U on this game dropped to 145.0 after opening at 148.0 last night.
The sharp money on the Under is warranted and PointsBet is taking 74% and 94% of the money on Texas A&M -- which leads me to like Wake Forest.
I do understand that A&M appears to be the better team of the two. Per Kenpom numbers, A&M has a few advantages, such as defensive turnover percentage (9th), three-point defense (63rd) and offensive rebounding (20th).
However, Wake Forest is much taller (19th in average height) and experienced (49th in average age) compared to Texas A&M (296th and 271st). The Demon Deacons also have a top-10 rank in the country for effective field goal percentage (8th) and two-point percentage (3rd).
Wake’s offense will be challenging for A&M’s offense, who can speed up the tempo, but prefers to control the game at a slightly slower pace. Despite A&M winning 10 of its last 12 games with losses to Tennessee and Vanderbilt -- they are only laying -2.5 and -3 at home, which sounds like a trap.
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Texas A&M struggles with defensive rebounding and Wake Forest has much more size, which means extra possessions could be a theme for the Deacons. Wake Forest is a spread out offense and Texas A&M allows 20.5% of its opponents points to come from the free-throw line. The Deacons hit 73.2% from the charity stripe on the year and 72.7% over the last five games.
Wake Forest averages 77.0 points per game in the last three contests, while Texas A&M is scoring 66.3 PPG. Both squads cannot hit the triple, recording 29% and 22% from three in that span. If the O/U was 148 still, we would be riding that Under.
However, I lean Wake Forest +3 and Under 145.5. If the total amount of money exceeds 80-90% at PointsBet and a few more books, then we will ride with the Demon Deacons.
Pick: Wake Forest +3 (lean)
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