2025 Big Ten Tournament Preview and Predictions for March 12-16

By
Vaughn Dalzell,

By
Vaughn Dalzell

Published March 11, 2025 03:36 PM

2025 BIG TEN MEN’S TOURNAMENT BETTING PREVIEW

The Big Ten tournament is a four-day event that has featured a non-No. 1 seed winner in three of the past four years. This season, Michigan State is the No. 1 overall seed edging out No. 2 Maryland. The real surprises are No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 UCLA after Purdue and Wisconsin lost their chances to clinch the double-bye as a top-four seed.

Oddsmakers peg this as a six-team race to win the Big Ten all being the top-six seeds. MSU (+250) leads the pack with Maryland (+400), Wisconsin (+625), Purdue (+650), Illinois (+700), and UCLA (+750) all trailing the Spartans. While there is a chance for the rest of the field, the gap is wide.

Oregon leads the longshots at (+2200) with Indiana (+5000) and Ohio State (+6000) behind the Ducks. Everyone else has between 100-to-1 and 300-to-1 odds to win the Big Ten championship. The Hoosiers and Buckeyes are in the NCAA tournament bubble, so a win in the first and second rounds is important for those two teams.

Entering the tournament, Michigan State and Oregon own longest active win streaks at seven consecutive victories, while Michigan has the longest losing streak at three straight games.

Since Feb. 1, Purdue has the No. 5 overall offensive efficiency in the nation, per Barttorvik, and leads the Big Ten. Illinois comes in at ninth but on defense, Maryland leads the country in adjusted efficiency with Michigan State coming in third during that span.

Information on the Big Ten Tournament

Dates: March 12-16, 2025
Site: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Location: Indianapolis, IN
Streaming: First Round on Peacock

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Odds to win the Big Ten Tournament via BetMGM:

The last five champions:

2024: No. 2 Illinois over No. 5 Wisconsin
2023: No. 1 Purdue over No. 10 Penn State
2022: No. 5 Iowa over No. 3 Purdue
2021: No. 2 Illinois over No. 5 Ohio State
2019: No. 1 Michigan State over No. 3 Michigan

Here is the Bracket for the Big Ten Tournament

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Best Ways to Bet Each Round of the Big Ten Tournament via Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports):

Go Under in the First Round: The Big Ten Tournament’s First Round has been as low-scoring as they come. Dating back to 2021, teams have struggled to reach 70 points with four out of 16 teams under that target number. There are three first-round games this season.

Blowouts happen in the Second Round: There have been nine double-digit wins over the last four years, including three out of four last season.

Underdogs hold value in the Quarterfinals: Since 2021, nine out of 16 higher seeds have prevailed, but on the flip side, you would have seven underdogs who are +100 or better in betting odds, so underdogs have some value in the Quarterfinals.

The higher seed doesn’t always win in the Semifinals: Since 2021, it’s split down the middle with four lower seeds winning and four higher seeds winning.

Expect a slim margin in the championship: The last four Big Ten Champions have won by a combined 20 points and not one of them has won by 10 or more points.

Never miss a second of the action and stay up to date with all the latest scores and player news. Check out our day-by-day NCAA Basketball Schedule Page that includes live game updates.

Who’s in the NCAA Tournament?

Prior to the Big Ten tournament, at least eight teams are expected to be named to the NCAA Tournament. Those eight are Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, Maryland, Oregon, and UCLA.

The four teams on the bubble a week ago were Indiana, Ohio State, Nebraska, and Northwestern. We can establish that Indiana and Ohio State are the two teams that can make the tournament. Northwestern would have to win at least two games in the Big Ten tournament to be considered again, while Nebraska played themselves out of the conversation by missing the Big Ten tournament.

Oddsmakers tag Michigan State as the favorite to win the National Championship out of the Big Ten at +2200 odds. The Big Ten has five teams inside 100-to-1 in terms of odds to win the natty. Maryland is +5000 and Wisconsin +6600, while Purdue and Illinois are +8000.

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NCAA Basketball Top Trends Tool on NBCSports.com!

What are the current Projected NCAA Tournament Seeds?

According to Barttorvik, Michigan State leads the Big Ten field with an average seeding of 1.7. There are six teams ahead of them, Duke (1.1), Auburn (1.2), Alabama (1.6), Florida (1.6), and Tennessee (1.8).

With that, it’s obvious the chances Michigan State is a No. 1 seed is unlikely, but they are given the best chance of nabbing a No. 1 or No. 2 seed of the Big Ten teams per Torvik.

Michigan State: 1.7
Maryland: 3.6
Purdue: 4.1
Wisconsin: 4.5
Illinois: 4.7
UCLA: 5.9
Michigan: 6.1
Oregon: 6.3
Ohio State: 9.8
Northwestern: 10.3
Indiana: 10.5

Vaughn Dalzell’s Projected NCAA Tournament Seedings for the Big Ten:

No. 2: Michigan State
No. 3: Maryland
No. 4: Wisconsin
No. 5: Purdue
No. 5: Illinois
No. 6: Michigan
No. 6: UCLA
No. 7: Oregon
No. 11: Indiana
No. 12: Ohio State

Predictions to win the Big Ten:

The bracket is set up for Michigan State to make a run, but that championship game will be no easy task. The bottom half of the bracket features No. 2 Maryland, No. 3 Michigan, No. 6 Purdue, and No. 7 Illinois. Any of those four would be a challenge for Michigan State, so betting the Spartans at +250 to win the Big Ten won’t be on my card. No. 4 UCLA and No. 5 Wisconsin are the best chance to knock off the Spartans before the title game and I think a team like the Badgers can get it done.

Most of the money is coming in on the Terps to win the Big Ten and I can’t disagree with that since they have been playing phenomenal defense over the past month, but I will split a unit each on Wisconsin and Purdue. The Badgers are the best bet on the top half outside of Michigan State and I think Purdue is the best bet outside of Maryland in the bottom half as their path through Michigan and Rutgers or USC before that should be no problem.

Picks: Wisconsin (+625) and Purdue (+650)

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BetMGM College Basketball Insights: National Championship

Notable bet

$100,000 on Florida to win the National Championship (+900)

Line movement (Last week to Now)

Duke +375 to +350
Florida +900 to +600
Michigan State +3000 to +2200

Highest Ticket%

Duke 13.9%
Auburn 7.4%
Michigan State 5.9%

Highest Handle%

Duke 23.8%
Florida 15.7%
Houston 8.2%

Biggest Liabilities

Duke
Florida
Michigan State

BetMGM College Basketball Insights: Wooden Award

Line movement (Open to Now)

Cooper Flagg Off the board (age), -210
Johni Broome +3500, +165

Highest Ticket%

Cooper Flagg 29.1%
Johni Broome 19.6%
Braden Smith 12.0%

Highest Handle%

Cooper Flagg 70.3%
Johni Broome 15.6%
Mark Sears 3.2%

Biggest Liabilities

Cooper Flagg
Johni Broome
Braden Smith

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
· Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
· Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
· Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
· Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)

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