The top four seeds in each region all won their opening games in last year’s NCAA Tournament. In fact, just one double digit seed (Arkansas as a 10-seed) advanced to the Sweet 16. Chalk prevailed by and large throughout the tournament. Will this year’s tournament unfold in a similar fashion?
Lets dive into the brackets region by region, look at each game’s odds, and offer some analysis and even a play or two for the First Round games in the East Region.
2026 NCAA Tournament: East Region
Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss. Duke is the No. 1 overall seed in this year’s tournament. Their road to the Final Four, however, is littered with land mines in the form of St. John’s, Kansas, UConn, and Michigan State to name just four other schools in a loaded portion of the bracket.
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (-100000) vs. No. 16 Siena Saints (+5000)
Spread: Blue Devils -28.5
Total: 136.5
The game opened Duke -25.5 with the Total set at 136.5.
Duke is banged up. We know they will be without their starting point guard, Caleb Foster (foot), and their starting center, Patrick Ngongba II, is questionable (foot). That said, neither played in the ACC Tournament…and the Blue Devils still won. Lay the points and know its entirely possible Duke exceeds 90 if not 100 points in this one while Gerry McNamara’s campaign to coach his Alma Mater heats up.
Vaughn Dalzell’s (@VmoneySports) likes Duke laying the big number: Duke -28.5
“People will be off of backing Duke against the spread because of their injuries, but those injuries won’t be a concern with Siena. The Saints played the 347th toughest strength of schedule out of 362 teams and they own the 210th-rated offense.
Duke owns the No. 2-ranked defense and will give Siena major issues all game. The Saints shoot 30.4% from three (334th) and play slow at the 319th tempo, which won’t mix well against Duke, The Blue Devils cover the big number at -28.5, and I’d go out to -29.5. I gave this bet out on X Sunday night, so make sure you shop around for the best number.”
No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (-142) vs. No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs (+120)
Spread: Buckeyes -2.5
Total: 146.5
The game opened Ohio State -4.5 with the Total set at 147.5
Ohio State lost in the Big Ten Quarters to Michigan to snap a 4-game winning streak. The Buckeyes have proven they can score, but can they survive any extended drought offensively against a physical TCU team that pressures the ball and rebounds exceptionally well?
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper): TCU +2.5 (-108)
“The public models have the wrong team favored, the Horned Frogs win outright based on superior defense in this one.”
Vaughn Dalzell’s (@VmoneySports) likes the Horned Frogs to at least keep it within the number: TCU +2.5
“TCU enters as a defensive-minded team. The Horned Frogs rank 22nd in defensive efficiency and 31st in defensive turnover percentage (19.7%). TCU will look to shut down Ohio State’s two main scorers, Bruce Thornton and John Mobley, as the Horned Frogs look to get their first tournament win since 2023. The Buckeyes aren’t a strong rebounding team, so there are enough holes in their game for the Horned Frogs to take advantage.
TCU is 9-3 ATS and 6-6 on the ML as an underdog this season, while Ohio State is 7-10-1 ATS and 16-2 on the ML as a favorite. This is a small spread, but I believe TCU can win this game outright with its strong defense and upset Jake Diebler in his first NCAA Tournament game as a head coach of Ohio State.”
Watch More: Auerbach and Fanta Talk Brackets
No. 5 St. John’s Red Storm (-600) vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa Panthers (+440)
Spread: Red Storm -10.5
Total: 131.5
The committee does no favors for Rick Pitino, whose club has won 19 of their last 20 enroute to the Big East regular season and tournament titles and yet not only is ranked as a 5-seed but also faces a Northern Iowa team that defends every possession and slows the pace to limit possessions. If the Johnnies shoot poorly from the outside and do not control the glass, this game could go the Panthers’ way…but it will probably take the Red Storm struggling in both those areas for the sniff of an upset to be present in Southern California.
NBC Sports’ John Fanta(@John_Fanta) believes the Red Storm deserved a higher seed:
“For St. John’s to have won 19 of 20 and not be higher than a 5-seed with a really strong strength of schedule, it felt like they should have been on the 4-line.”
No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks (-1200) vs. No. 13 Cal Baptist Lancers (+750)
Spread: Jayhawks -14.5
Total: 137.5
This game opened Kansas -9.5 with the Total set at 133.5.
This game features two teams with strong guard play. While the Lancers boast a handful of capable players, they will not take out Darryn Peterson and the Jayhawks unless Dominique Daniels Jr. lights up the scoreboard…unless Kansas plays like it did against Houston in the Big 12 semis. They were dominated on the glass and no other starter outside of Peterson (14 points) scored more than five points.
No. 6 Louisville Cardinals (-225) vs. No. 11 South Florida Bulls (+185)
Spread: Cardinals -5.5
Total: 165.5
This game opened Louisville -7.5 with the Total set at 163.5.
The Cardinals have an elite starting backcourt in Ryan Conwell and Mikel Brown Jr. when they are both available, but Brown has missed the Cards’ last four games with back woes that have plagued him off and on throughout the season. If he is not healthy and contributing, USF is a good team certainly capable of preventing Louisville from getting their first NCAA Tournament win since 2017, but the key is Brown’s availability and ability to contribute. The Cards are just 7-5 without him and average 14 fewer points without the spectacular freshman in the lineup.
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper): South Florida +4.5 (-113)
“Not much separates USF and Louisville by my numbers, public models have this closer to +7 but the market is on to an early possible upset here and we should see this close around +4.”
John Fanta (@John_Fanta) sees the Cardinals losing for the second consecutive season in the first round:
“I think Bryan Hodgson is a coaching star. USF is going to beat Louisville in the first round. This is a team that has terrific guard play…their pace, their ability to swarm the ball I think is going to give Louisville some problems.”
No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (-1800) vs. No. 14 North Dakota State Bison (+1000)
Spread: Spartans -16.5
Total: 143.5
This game opened Sparty -14.5 with the Total set at 143.5.
Michigan State looks to put their Big Ten quarterfinal loss to UCLA behind them as they take the court in the NCAA Tournament for the 28th consecutive year. Their defense is not what it has been but if they are allowed to play with a certain level of physicality, they should control the glass and ultimately, roll the Bison.
No. 7 UCLA Bruins (-245) vs. No. 10 UCF Knights (+200)
Spread: Bruins -5.5
Total: 152.5
This game opened UCLA -6.5 with the Total set at 155.5.
Mick Cronin has UCLA defending, sure, but the key to winning even in Round 1 lies with Donovan Dent. No shock but their four-game winning streak and Big Ten tourney hopes sank when he left after just ten minutes with a sore calf in the Bruins’ Big Ten semifinal loss to Purdue. If the senior is unable to go on Friday, the up-tempo Knights may well wear down the Bruins.
No. 2 UConn Huskies (-4500) vs. No. 15 Furman Paladins (+1700)
Spread: Huskies -20.5
Total: 137.5
This game opened UConn -18.5 with the Total set at 136.5.
The Huskies’ offense is not as efficient as it has been in year’s past and in fact, looks clunky at times. That said, the biggest key in this game will be UConn’s defense against one of the better freshmen in the nation, Alex Wilkins. A finalist for the Kyle Macy Award (national freshman of the year) point guard Wilkins earned most outstanding player honors at the SoCon Tournament totaling 65 points over three games in the conference tourney.
John Fanta (@John_Fanta) is not fading UConn just yet:
“Even though the Huskies have struggled, they’re still Connecticut and they still have Solo Ball and Braylon Mullins and Alex Karaban.”
That’s a quick look at the East Region. We’ll have a breakdown of the other three regions in plenty of time for you to fill out a winning bracket.
*odds provided by DraftKings
