After a successful and chalky round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament and profitable Saturday in the round of 32, let’s turn our attention to the Sunday slate and who will earn a bid to the Sweet 16. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
Miami vs Purdue (-7.5): O/U 147.5
Purdue and Miami kick off Sunday’s round of 32 slate and I have two bets that I like in this game, both focused on Purdue’s offense and Miami’s defense.
Miami went 17-of-29 (58.6%) from the free-throw line versus Missouri, but overcame that with superb three-point shooting (15-of-36, 41.7%). Queens found some success from three in the first half versus Purdue, but finished 7-of-25 (25%) with only five free-throw attempts (0 in the first half). Purdue should be able to limit Miami from deep, plus the Boilermakers size should see them winners of the rebounding battle. The Hurricanes had a soft matchup with a inconsistent Missouri team that went 16-of-18 (88.8%) from the free-throw line and 20-of-57 (35%) elsewhere.
Purdue jumped out to a quick start of 45 points versus Queens and could do something similar here. The Boilermakers have playmakers at every level as apart of the No. 1 offense in the country. I like Purdue to cover the -7.5 spread and go Over 36.5 points in the first half. In losses this season, Miami allowed 38, 46, 39, 45, 38, 35, 29, and 39 first-half points for 38.6 points per game.
Pick: Purdue -7.5 (1 unit), Purdue 1H Team Total Over 36.5 (1 unit)
Iowa vs Florida (-10.5): O/U 145.5
Iowa was invloed in the lowest scoring game of the first round, but face a Florida team that in my opinion, the Hawkeyes won’t be able to slow down.
The total has crept up from 143.5 and sits at 144.5 at some spots, which is much higher than people probably anticipated. However, Iowa is an efficient shooting team that ranks 29th in offensive efficiency despite playing at a bottom-five pace in the country. Florida plays at a top-50 tempo offensively and defensively, plus the Gators are excellent scoring inside and rebounding. The size advantage for the Gators will likely lead to a lot of second chance points since Iowa is 177th in offensive rebounding percentage and 69th in defensive — Florida is top seven both ways.
Since Feb. 11, Iowa is 4-7 and has the 61st-ranked defense. The Gators should be able to score on the Hawkeyes and Iowa will resort to shooting three-pointers. I like the game Over 144.5 up to 145.5, plus Florida to go Over 36.5 points in the first half. Iowa hasn’t seen an offense like the Gators.
Pick: Over 144.5 (1 unit), Florida 1H Team Total Over 36.5 (1 unit)
Tennessee (-1.5) vs Virginia: O/U 137.5
Virginia was one of the higher seeds that struggled in the round of 64, but turned it on late to win, while Tennessee faced Miami of Ohio and rolled them to put an end to the cinderella story. This will be one of the tighter games of today’s slate and I like the underdog to cover and win.
Tennessee has been one of the least impressive teams to me this season to make the field and this might be where their poor free-throw shooting (69.4%, 288th) or offensive turnover rates (17.4%, 226th) could catch up with them. Virginia’s defense ranked first in the ACC and both teams rank top 10 in offensive rebounding percentage for the country, so second-chance points could tell the story here.
Despite only winning by 9 points over Wright State, Virginia as team put up 53/50/93 shooting splits. The Cavaliers are still being underrated in my opinion, so I will take the +1.5 with Virginia.
Pick: Virginia +1.5 (1 unit)
Utah State vs Arizona (-11.5): O/U 154.5
Arizona was one of the lone large favorites to cover the spread in the round of 64, while Utah State won and covered the -1.5 point spread against Villanova in a 8-9 matchup. Now, the Aggies turn around the face a Wildcats team that has the second-best odds to win the championship.
Utah State was awarded 36 free-throw attempts (made 28) in the first round and went an abysmal 2-of-16 from three (12.5%). The Aggies relied on free-throws and two-point shots (26-of-35, 74.3%), which won’t be the case against Arizona. Villanova shot only 13 free-throw attempts and relied on the triple, putting up 30 three-pointers and making 14 (46.7%). Arizona is a top-50 three-point shooting team, one of the best rebounding squads, top 100 in turnover percentage, and dominant in the paint. I think Arizona can roll here.
Underdogs in the MWC have gone 16-41-3 ATS since 2001 and the Aggies were favorites in the round of 64 versus Villanova, so I will fade Utah State here. I’ll take Arizona -11.5 out to -12.5.
Pick: Arizona -11.5 (1 unit)
First Four Record: 1-0 +1 unit
Round of 64 Record: 12-9 +2.1 units
Round of 32 Record: 3-3 0.22 units
Futures Record: 1-1 +1.37 units
Overall Record: 17-13 +4.69 units
NCAA Tournament Future Picks
1 unit: Houston to make the Elite 8 (+110)
1 unit: Purdue to make the Elite 8 (+105)
1 unit: Iowa State to make the Elite 8 (-130)
1 unit: Virginia to make the Sweet 16 (-125)
1 unit: Arizona to win the National Championship (+380)
0.5 unit: Houston to win the National Championship (+1200)
0.5 unit: Houston to win the National Championship (+1100)
0.5 unit: Iowa State to win the National Championship (+1800)
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NCAA Basketball schedule!
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