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Twitter Spaces Live at 11:30 AM ET: ATS Picks and Player Props
JOIN myself, Eric Froton and Corey Parson on Twitter Spaces Live at 11:30 AM ET until noon kickoff for our favorite plays and breakdowns.
Of course, I will share these plays, but we have a few more to give you all live, so join in as that is the only place we share our favorite plays for Week 12!
North Texas (-10) at FIU
We faded FIU last week versus Middle Tennessee State (-10) and they rewarded us with a no-sweat 40-point loss.
FIU has allowed 31 or more points in seven straight games -- all losses.
The Panthers are amid a nine-game losing streak and have over 25 players injured and 13 starters are missing. FIU is 1-5 ATS in the last six games (16.7%) and 3-7 on the season (30%).
The latest news, Butch Davis will not be back once the season ends. The school did not extend him but posted his job online as now accepting applications. FIU’s Athletic Director also stepped down, which gives me no confidence in this program to end the season.
North Texas has now covered in four straight games and six of the past seven (85.7%). On the season, they are 7-3 ATS (70%).
On the road, they continue to cash at 4-1 on the year (80%) with four straight covers, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
These two programs have not met since 2014 and this is a sweet spot for the Mean Green.
The Panthers allow 203.2 rushing yards per game (115th) and 282.4 passing yards per game (123rd).
The Mean Green ranks 15th in the country with 223.3 rushing yards per game and should be able to maintain a lead against the Panthers.
North Texas won three straight games and with victories over FIU and UTSA, the Mean Green would be 6-6. That is an incentive after starting 1-6.
Continue backing the Mean Green Covering Machines.
This would be a bigger bet if it was not senior day for FIU, although a live bet is optional in this one because I would be shocked if FIU won as would everyone in the College Football community.
Pick: North Texas -10 (1u)
East Carolina (-4) at Navy: O/U 46.5
It’s Senior Day for Navy.
They will celebrate 25 seniors who helped take this team from a 3-10 record to 11-2 at one point.
Navy won 17-consecutive games on Senior Day with fans in the stands (2003-2019). Navy lost on senior day to Tulsa last season in a COVID year and no fans in attendance.
So, 17 straight wins on Senior Day with fans, then factor in Navy is 7-1 all-time against East Carolina, including five straight wins and covers.
Make that, Navy is 6-2 ATS all-time and 6-2 to the Over versus East Carolina (75%). Why is Navy the dog outside the 2-7 record?
The Midshipmen played the toughest schedule in the nation. Navy’s opponents are 57-24 (.704).
One interesting stat for this matchup, both teams rank atop the NCAA in time of possession. Navy is fourth and East Carolina ranks 13th. That usually bodes well for an Under.
ECU is coming off a thrilling 30-29 OT win over Memphis, where they stopped a two-point conversion to seal the victory. I love fading teams coming off emotional wins or what is considered the best win of the season.
The Pirates are in a letdown spot here on the road and on senior day against a team that has had their number.
ECU has won three straight games and enters this matchup 4-0 ATS on the road, but 2-2 on the ML away from home.
ECU was the underdog in all four games, and they are the favorite here.
When the Pirates are road favorites, ECU is 4-11 ATS (26.7%) and 3-8 ATS over the last 11 (27.2%).
Play Navy down to +3, and of course, sprinkle the ML.
Pick: Navy +4 (1u)
Texas at West Virginia (-2.5): O/U 56.5
What a game this will be. I just wish Bijan Robinson of Texas was playing.
One thing I notice about these two schools is how different of a pace they play on offense. West Virginia ranks 26th in time of possession, while Texas is at 108th.
The Longhorns’ defense allows 232.2 passing yards per game (70th) and 203.3 rushing yards per game (115th). That is great news for Jarret Doege and Leddie Brown to speed up the offense and score points.
An interesting fact about WVU this year is that they are 3-0 when Brown rushes for 100 yards this season. WVU is 9-1 all-time when he rushes for 100-plus yards.
Texas allowed a 100-yard rusher in six staight weeks and lost five straight games outright during that stretch.
West Virginia scored 27, 28 and 31 points when Brown rushed for 100-plus yards this season. WVU scored 24 or more points in nine of those 10 games.
The Over is 3-1 in the last four meetings between the Longhorns and Mountaineers in West Virginia. WVU scored 31 or more points in three of the past four meetings against Texas at home.
I like the Mountaineers to have success scoring versus a Texas team that saw its season go out the window the past few weeks.
WVU can hit the 30-point marker for the third time this season and on senior day -- I might add. Play this at 29.5.
Pick: West Virginia Team Total Over 28.5 (1u)
New Mexico State at Kentucky (-36): O/U 60.5
It is Senior Day for Kentucky and what better way to secure the win than beating New Mexico State?
Last week, we lost Kentucky -21.5 against Vanderbilt after leading 31-3 at halftime, and Kentucky won 34-17. I see a similar situation for Kentucky here, except a lack of second-half scoring from the opponent.
New Mexico State scored three points apiece versus Alabama and UTEP, 10 against San Diego State and 13 or more in every other game.
The Aggies are 3-6-1 ATS (33.3%) in the last 10 against SEC opponents, scoring 10 points or fewer seven times (70%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
New Mexico State has scored 10 or fewer points in four of the last five versus the SEC (80%).
Kentucky held UL Monroe and South Carolina to 10 points, while Florida scored 13.
New Mexico State allows 290.9 passing yards per game (125th) and 184.1 rushing yards per contest (102nd).
Kentucky ranks 21st in rushing defense (116.7 ypg) and 54th in passing defense (224.2 ypg), while top coming in top 100 in both rushing and passing offense.
I like the chances New Mexico State scores 10 or fewer points against the Wildcats of Kentucky.
I lean the Wildcats 1H -21.5, but like the full game fade on the Aggies Team Total Under 12. Playable down to 10.5.
Pick: New Mexico State Team Total Under 12.5 (1u)
Nebraska at Wisconsin (-9.5): O/U 43.5
I will keep playing this Wisconsin team one way or another.
I don’t get how Nebraska’s Team Total is 16.5, when only Notre Dame (41) and Michigan (38) hit this against Wisconsin.
Every other team, including Penn State (16), Purdue (13) and Iowa (7), all went Under 17 points.
This Badgers defense would be talked about like the Georgia Bulldogs if they had the same record, but they do not.
Wisconsin ranks second in the country with 155.7 passing yards allowed per game and first in rushing yards allowed per game (60.6).
Outside of Georgia (7.6 PPG), Wisconsin ranks second with 14.6 points per game permitted.
Take away the Notre Dame and Michigan outings, and Wisconsin has held opponents to 8.3 points per game. I do not think Adrian Martinez and Nebraska will score 17-plus points.
Nebraska scored 17 versus Ohio State last week and needed fourth-quarter touchdowns against Minnesota and Purdue to go Over this number. Wisconsin’s defense is much better than all three.
Play this down to 14.5, the number it should be.
Pick: Nebraska Team Total Under 16.5 (1u)
Illinois at Iowa (-12.5): O/U 38.0
Illinois has been one of the most frustrating offenses in all of college football to watch throughout the season, and I do not anticipate anything to change versus Iowa.
The Hawkeyes have won the last seven meetings between the two and covered the spread four out of the previous five games, per NBC’s Edge Finder. Illinois has scored 16 or fewer points in seven out of the past 10 (70%).
The Team Total for the Illini is 12.5, which implies scoring one touchdown and a field goal, which would be kind to this team.
Illinois scored 14 in a win over Minnesota, 14 in a loss to Rutgers at home, 20 points in a 9 OT game (10 points in regulation) and 0 points against Wisconsin the prior week -- giving them 38 points in four regulation games, 48 if you include OT.
That is 12 PPG or 9.5 PPG, either way.
It’s Iowa’s senior day and this Hawkeyes defense held its first three opponents at home to 14 or fewer points (27 total) before Penn State (23), Purdue (24) and Minnesota (22) all scored 22-24 points.
Illinois is not a team that can score 22-plus. Outside of the first two games, Illinois has scored 20 or more twice, and once was the 9 OT game and the other a 24-14 win versus Charlotte.
Illinois averages 14.2 PPG in four road games, but I see fewer chances against this Iowa defense that ranks seventh in the country with 16.3 PPG allowed and top 50 in passing defense (36th) and rushing defense (15th).
Play Illinois down to 10.5.
Pick: Illinois Team Total Under 13.5 (1u)
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss (-36.5): O/U 65.5
This Ole Miss defense has come to play the past few weeks.
Ole Miss held Texas A&M to 19 points, Liberty to 14 and before surrendering 31 to Auburn, they only gave up 17 to LSU.
Over that four-game stretch, we have witnessed the best of this Rebels defense. Now, Ole Miss enters Senior Day against a Vanderbilt team with a banged-up starting quarterback who will play but be limited.
A two-quarterback system, you say?
No matter if the starting quarterback is Ken Seals or Mike Wright, they are both worth a fade. The O/U of 65.5 is solely dependent on Ole Miss, in my opinion.
I do not see Vandy scoring more than 14 points, so let’s play the Team Total Under 14.5.
The Commodores have played only three road games all season and will finish the year on a two-game road trip. Last week they scored 14 second-half points and cost us the cover, but it was their senior day!
I did not factor that in last week and well, that is more than likely the cause for not losing 31-3 like they were. Now, the season is over and they have two road games before they can party it up before spring ball.
This season, Vanderbilt scored 24 points at Colorado State, 0 at Florida, then 20 at South Carolina. I am less than impressed with the two 20-plus point outings and this Rebels’ defense will be the best the Commodores have faced.
Vanderbilt ranks 112th in the country with 182.5 passing yards per game, plus they are 109th in rushing offense at 114.9 yards per outing. Vanderbilt is a -5 in the turnover margin (T-104th) and ranks 80th in time of possession.
Fade this team all-around against a more than capable Ole Miss defense.
Vanderbilt should struggle for two touchdowns but have plenty of possessions to try. Hold your nose and play the Under.
I would not play past 14.5 as this play will be dependent on whether or not we see a fourth-quarter garbage touchdown. Ole Miss has pride on defense lately, so I will rock with that and the potential for a senior day shutout.
Pick: Vanderbilt Team Total Under 14.5 (1u)
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