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After last season that was filled with medical chaos, cancellations left and right, and immensely fewer games, we returned to normal this season and it delivered in a major way. This season, we have seen 25 top-10 teams lose, the cinderella stories of Cincinnati and UTSA, and the unpredictability across the board were at its peak this season. It felt very similar to 2007 where going into championship weekend, the number seven team in the nation LSU ended up playing for and winning the national championship due to immense chaos the last two weeks of the season.
This season feels incredibly similar to 2007. So far, 25 top-10 teams have met their demise with that number guaranteed to hit 27 by the weekend’s end. Throughout all the chaos this season has brought us, we still have two undefeated teams in Georgia and Cincinnati, both of whom are projected to face each other in the College Football Playoff. As we move forward into the weekend slate, here are a couple of my favorite lines powered by PointsBet Sportsbook.
Western Kentucky -3 vs UTSA
These two teams played in a fantastic game in week six. The Roadrunners escaped Bowling Green, KY with a narrow 52-46 victory. With a chance to win the game late, Bailey Zappe, who had thrown five touchdowns on the day, threw his only interception to seal the game for the Roadrunners. Frank Harris had his best performance of the season, tossing six touchdowns and 349 yards.
Since that game, the Hilltoppers haven’t lost a game head-to-head and are 6-1 against the spread. Bailey Zappe has put up numbers eerily reminiscent of Joe Burrow, having thrown for 4,968 yards and 52 touchdowns both which lead the nation. Not only has he put up astounding numbers, but he’s doing so with a 70% completion rate. The Houston Baptist graduate transfer has been lighting up defenses all season.
For the Roadrunners, their 11-0 start was nothing short of exemplary. Head coach Jeff Traylor has done a remarkable job with the Roadrunners, including upset wins over Illinois and Memphis. Unfortunately, they werern’t able to complete the perfect regular season with a clunker against North Texas. Frank Harris has been really good for the Roadrunners tossing 23 touchdowns and running for five more. They have NFL caliber talent on many levels of the team, including running back Sincere McCormick.
The biggest trend with this game is the records ATS as of late. The Hilltoppers have won their last five and the Roadrunners have lost their last three. Expect that to hold true with the Hilltoppers 10th ranked offense per SP+ to take down the Roadrunners, who have been known to give up points, having given up 30 points on four separate occsions.
Pick: Western Kentucky -3
Michigan vs Iowa Over/Under 43.5
This line screams Iowa football game. This season, the Hawkeyes have only had one spread above 50 points and three of them even below 40. The Hawkeyes have SP+'s 92nd ranked offense and they are 118th in explosive play rate. Over the last few weeks, both Specer Petras and Alex Padilla have been the starter and have each been pulled for the other one, having combined for 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
The Michigan offense has been incredibly efficient this season. They are 13th in rushing success rate and second in stop rate allowed. Hassan Haskins was a dominant force against the Buckeyes running for 169 yards and five touchdowns. His running mate Blake Corum had been dealing with injuries as of late but ratlled off 87 yards on six carries.
This spread is low and the last three games for both teams are a combined 5-1 on the over. This shapes up to be an old school Big-10 throwback game with both defenses ranked top seven in SP+. With the low spread, expect the trend to flip to the over where both teams have floated around .500
Pick: Over 43.5
College Football Pick ‘Em Predictor Contest
Each week, head to the NBC Sports Predictor app and submit picks for College Pick Em, a free-to-play contest with weekly cash prizes including a $10,000 jackpot. Participants can download the NBC Sports Predictor app, then search the “Special Contests” section for each week’s contest featuring three big games each week. The weekly contest will include seven different prop questions, each with multiple answer options.
Baylor Rushing Yards vs Oklahoma State
<65, 65-100, 101-140, 141-179, 180-215, 216-274, 275+
Going against the sixth ranked rush defense in the nation allowing 93.6 yards per game, the Bears were only able to amass 107 in their week 5 meeting earlier this season. Since then, the Bears have played on a different level finishing the season 6-1. They have averaged 227.4 yards per game on the season and have been excellent in running the football with Trestan Ebner and Abram Smith. Baylor will be able to get their yards against the Cowboys, but it will be a war.
Pick: 141-179
Oklahoma State Passing Yards vs Baylor
<140, 140-173, 174-200, 201-225, 226-242, 243-299, 300+
Spencer Sanders has been a dynamite force for the Cowboys, but consistency has been a real issue. He has only topped 200 yards on five occasions, but has done so in the last three. Against Baylors 66th ranked average pass defense, Sanders will likely do enough to exploit the Bears weaker cornerback group.
Pick: 226-242
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Georgia Rushing Yards vs Alabama
<100, 100-145, 146-167, 168-193, 194-210, 211-244, 245+
The Bulldogs are primed to get RB Kendall Milton back for this game to pair with Zamir White and James Cook. On the season they have averaged 202.1 yards on the ground. The Crimson Tide have had their struggles on defense, but they have been dynamite against the run. They are fourth in the nation allowing 80.6 yards per game. Outside of Ole Miss and Florida, Alabama hasn’t seen a really good rush offense. The Bulldogs are going to get their’s against the Crimson Tide.
Pick: 146-167
Alabama Passing Yards vs Georgia
<250, 250-295, 296-315, 316-348, 349-375, 376-395, 396-417, 418+
With Brian Robinson Jr questionable for this game, Bryce Young is likely to have the team on his back on Saturday. Owning a 10:1 touchdown:interception ratio, Young has thrown for over 4,000 yards in his first season as a starter. He has done a good job leading this team, including tossing for 559 yards leading the Crimson Tide to victory almost single handedly. The Georgia pass defense is loaded with top NFL talent and will limit his effectiveness. We are primed to see a dynamite game between two powerful units.
Pick: 296-315
Todal Points Georgia vs Alabama
0-34, 35-40, 41-45, 46-49, 50-53, 54-58, 59-64, 65+
The over/under on this game is set at 49.5 and both teams have shown the ability to put up points this season. The Georgia defense is one to behold, allowing less than a touchdown on the season. They have allowed a season-high 17 points on the season and the Crimson Tide offense is likely to top that with 42.7 points per game. Average out those two and it’s right where we should expect this game to be, slightly over the under at 27-24.
Pick: 50-53
Michigan Rushing Yards vs Iowa
<80, 80-100, 101-125, 126-147, 148-185, 186-233, 234-295, 296+
This is no easy task for either side. Michigan has the ninth-ranked rushing offense and Iowa the 14th-ranked rushing defense. As I mentioned earlier, we are primed for an old fashioned Big Ten brawl in Indianapolis. Expect the Wolverines to be successful on the ground but the stout Hawkeyes defense will somewhat limit their effectiveness. This will be a game where Cade McNamara will need to make a play or two.
Pick: 148-185
Iowa Passing Yards vs Michigan
<110, 110-145, 146-178, 179-194, 195-210, 211-230, 231-269, 270+
Over the last few weeks, Iowa has been very inconsistent in this area. Alex Padilla and Spencer Petras have only topped 200 yards one time in the last four games, with that one game was Padilla throwing for 206 yards against Minnesota. He was only as successful in those games as he was because of busted coverages. Don’t expect things to change for the Hawkeyes, as the running game and winning the turnover battle will be key to making a run.
Pick: 146-178
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