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Bless the Boise State Broncos, who are the only Group of Five team I’m willing to believe in after nine weeks.
After cranking out three-straight wins (and going 3-0 ATS), I drank the blue Kool-Aid and picked the Broncos to smash an obviously overmatched Colorado State team at -25.
The end result?
Boise State dismantled an overmatched Colorado State team by a score of 49-10 on the blue turf. The Broncos moved to 4-0 under newly-minted starter Taylen Green and is now sitting at 6-2 atop the Mountain West with a 6-2 record. The Broncos look primed for a conference championship run thanks to the recent play of Green and a defense that’s allowing the fourth-worst passer rating to opposing quarterbacks (108.4) on the season.
All was not perfect on the G5 front last week, as UTEP (-1.5) took a 24-13 home beating against Middle Tennessee, but we’ve got a nice opportunity to bounce back this week. With one pick backed by 20 years worth of data that boasts an 81% hit rate, this week feels like a chance to steal some money.
Let’s get into the numbers and have a look at some enticing Week 10 matchups.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
Boise State vs. BYU Week 10 2022
Boise State continues to stay hot under redshirt freshman Taylen Green. In the four games Green has started the Broncos are 4-0 overall and 4-0 ATS, outscoring their opponents by a combined score of 143-57. Their closest game came in a 19-14 win over Air Force in Week 8, but the Broncos were 2.5-point road underdogs in that one, pulling off the road upset.
Green continues to improve in every start and threw for 305/2 last week against Colorado State while rushing for another 13 yards and one touchdown on the ground. The 6-foot-6, 220-pound quarterback will now look to light up a BYU defense that’s allowing the 25th-most yards per game (422.4) and points per game (31.1). Since being named as Boise State’s starter in Week 5, Green has graded as the 41st-highest quarterback per PFF (76.1), is 33rd in aDOT (10.9) and has been one of the least pressured quarterbacks -- taking just two sacks on 18 pressures.
Taylen Green 2022 Stats
Over that same span, BYU quarterback Jaren Hall has graded has the 92nd-ranked quarterback in the nation per PFF (65.0) and has seen almost twice as many pressures as Green (33) while absorbing six sacks. On the year, Hall has thrown for 2236-21-3 but has the Cougars sitting on a 4-5 record with a 2-7 record ATS. It should be noted that BYU has faced a tough schedule of late, squaring off against Notre Dame, Arkansas, Liberty and East Carolina over the last month, but Hall and the Cougars have struggled at times on the road.
BYU is 1-3 on the road, with a 50-21 win over USF serving as their only win. In losses to Oregon, Notre Dame and Liberty, BYU has been outscored 110-54, and feel 41-14 to Liberty just two weeks ago.
Playing this one on The Blue, BYU will face a tough crowd and defense on Saturday night. The Broncos are allowing the second-fewest yards per game to opposing offenses (232.3) and are allowing the fewest passing yards per game (133.6) in the nation.
The last three times these teams have faced one another the underdog has gone 2-1 on the money line. Boise State won 26-17 last season as six-point road dogs. While I’m certain revenge will be on the minds of BYU, Boise State’s hot play with Green under center is hard to ignore. The Broncos have been good to me as of late, so we’ll take them again in hopes of the streak continuing.
Pick: Boise State -8
Air Force vs. Army Week 10 2022
Show how much you love your country by tuning in to the Commanders’ Classic this Saturday.
The under has been wildly profitable in games played between service academies. Since 2003 the under 47-9-2, a good reminder of why we ALWAYS bet the under in these games. During that 20-year span, the under is also 15-4 in games played between Air Force and Army.
The last time the over hit in this game came in 2013 when the Falcons walked away 42-28 winners in a game that had an over/under of 54. Books have adjusted a bit in recent years, as this game hasn’t had a total above 50 since 2017.
Military Academy Game Unders 2003-2021
Air Force vs. Army total 2003-2022
In regards to this weekend’s game, the total currently sits at 40. These two sides haven’t combined for 40+ points since 2016 when Air Force walked away 31-12 winners. Over their last 10 matchups, just three games have gone for over 40 points.
This season, the over is 5-3 in games Army has played, but two of these games have been aided by high-scoring wins over FCS opponents, and the other two came in losses against Coastal Carolina and UTSA, where Army was forced to push the ball more than they’re used to. Army has attempted 63 passes on the season, with 55 of those passes coming in their four losses. Army allowed 31+ points in each of those games and lost by double-digits in three of those games.
In a rivalry game that’s expected to be close throughout, there’s little reason to believe either team will break from their run-heavy approaches -- chewing time off the clock at a rapid rate. In Air Force’s 13-10 win over Navy earlier this year, the under cleared by an easy 15 points. Since 2018, the under is 7-1-1 in games played between Air Force and Navy/Army.
Army (86%) and Air Force (84%) are the top two teams in the nation in rush rate and two of the slowest teams in pace per play. The Falcons rank dead last in the nation in seconds between plays (32.3), while Army ranks 126th at 29.4. Assuming both defenses can limit explosive plays, these two teams will need to score on almost every possession if they hope to combine for more than 40 points in this one.
History supports the under. Playstyle supports the under. Pace supports the under. I have no choice.
Go Falcons.
Pick: Under 40 points
2022 G5 Record: 5-12-1
Overall G5 Record: 19-23-2
