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College football’s rivalry week signals the ever-nearing end of the regular season. Fans will be drawn to several marquee matchups this weekend such as “The Game” and “The Iron Bowl”, but we can’t forget the little dogs.
Group of five matchups are easier to overlook on rivalry weekend, but that doesn’t mean great games aren’t still being played. While this year’s matchup between Air Force and San Diego State doesn’t carry quite the same weight as it did last year, the battle fought between the Aztecs and Falcons has been settled by six points or less in each of the last three matchups. Last year’s game, which carried conference championship implications, saw the underdog Aztecs (+3) walk away as outright winners in their 20-14 win.
Week 12 was a tough one for my G5 picks, as Air Force (-21.5) failed to cover against Colorado State in their 24-12 win. And UCF, who entered the day as 15.5-point favorites against Navy, were outright losers in an unprecedented 17-14 home loss.
In need of a rebound this weekend, we’ll leave the big rivalry games to somebody else. Here are two G5 games I like with Week 13 fast approaching.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
Making a bet against UMass is a tempting proposition on any given week. To put it nicely, there are bad times and then there is UMass.The 1-10 Minutemen are a decent 5-6 against the spread, but rank 129th in the nation in offensive yards per game (268.5), 130th in points per game (13.0) and are allowing 29.9 points per game. To their credit, UMass has managed to cover against Liberty (+22.5) and Texas A&M (+32), but they’re catching an army team that has hung some serious points on underwhelming defenses and are currently riding a four-game winning streak ATS.
Led by quarterback Tyhier Tyler, The Black Knights -- as has come to be expected from military academy programs -- are one of the most run-heavy teams in the nation. Running at an 85.5% rate, Army is second in the nation in rushing yards per game (301.9) and first in rushing touchdowns per game (3.1). Tyler leads all ball carriers with a rushing line of 109-500-9 while running back Tyson Riley is close behind at 93-435-2. The ball-control style of offense means opposing offenses need to make the most of their possessions -- something UMass hasn’t done much of this season.
In addition to their other offensive woes, UMass is unsurprisingly dead last in the nation in points per play (0.175) while Army is below half the other teams in the nation at 78th (0.360) -- more than doubling UMass’ points per play totals.
Tyler hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since September, but Army is more than capable of catching opposing defenses off guard with a long touchdown pass. If you’re unsure what I mean by that, consider that two of Army’s leading receivers are averaging over 34 yards per reception and have combined for a 10-357-3 receiving line. Lead receiver Isaiah Alston has 15 receptions for 246 yards and one touchdown and is the team’s most consistent receiver, but he’s still averaging less than two receptions per game.
Defensively, Army has tightened up as of late. They’ve allowed 17 points or less in three of their last four games after giving up 79 points through their first two games of the season. The Black Knights will struggle to match up against potent offenses -- but that’s not what they’re facing this weekend in Massachusetts. Riding a bit of a hot streak ATS, I like Army to keep things going against a UMass team that’s offered little resistance on either side of the ball.
Pick: Army -20
This weekend is simply about hammering down bad teams. Like UMass, Temple falls into this category. To the Owls’ credit, their 7-4 ATS despite their 3-8 record, but they’ve faced a rather generous schedule this season and have still struggled to win. They beat and covered against FCS Lafayette and UMass, but then lost to bad teams like Tulsa and Navy that are a combined 8-14 on the season. In recent games against Houston and Cincinnati, The Owls are 1-1 ATS, covering as 20-point road dogs but failing to cover as 17-point home dogs. Now at home again, they are getting just 10 points against an ECU team that’s beaten them by a combined score of 73-6 over the last two years.
The Pirates have been one of the more productive teams in the nation in regard to total offense, ranking 24th in yards per game at 452.2. Strangely, this hasn’t always translated into points, as their 29.2 points per game ranks 60th. Quarterback Holton Ahlers has thrown for 3,094 yards, 20 touchdowns and five interceptions on the season, and has shown off his mobility at times with a 61-135-5 rushing line. For his career, Ahlers has rushed 458 times for 1,399 yards and 24 scores.
In his last two games against Temple, Ahlers has thrown for 379 yards, five touchdowns and one interception and has added another 108 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. The Pirates are also 2-0 ATS in those games.
Defensively, the Pirates have been a fairly middle-of-the-road squad. They’ve allowed less than 30 points in all but two games this season and limited a UCF offense that dropped 70 points on Temple to just 13 points when they hosted them in late October as 5.5-point underdogs. The Pirates were outright winners of that one, dropping the Knights in dominant fashion by a score of 34-13.
Offensively, Temple has struggled to hang with teams at times, ranking 114th in the nation in both offensive yards per game (330.1) and points per game (19.7). Quarterback E.J. Warner has thrown for 2501-13-11 and is tied for fourth in the nation among qualified quarterbacks in turnover-worthy plays (21) per PFF. His eight big-time throws ranks near the bottom of the nation.
No stranger to road success in 2022, the Pirates are 3-1 ATS on the road and have won by an average of 17.2 points in their six wins. With their recent success against Temple, and the Owls’ struggles this season, a 10-point spread feels very doable for the Pirates in their regular season finale.
Pick: ECU -10
2022 G5 Record: 7-18-1
Overall G5 Record: 21-27-2
