With bowl season officially upon us, it’s time to buckle up for some CFB DFS bowl action.
While the slates get a little smaller, the action remains the same, with some exploitable edges to be had as several players are expected to opt-out of these bowl games or simply miss due to injury.
Arguably the most notable player to miss this weekend’s bowl game is BYU quarterback Jaren Hall, who is dealing with an ankle injury and is not expected to play. To add a literal insult to injury, BYU’s backup quarterback, Jacob Conover, has transferred to Arizona State, forcing BYU to choose between their third, fourth or fifth-string quarterback -- none of whom have throw a pass this season.
Jaren Hall is officially out for the New Mexico Bowl, and Kalani Sitake said all 3 backup QB's may end up playing. @BYUfootball pic.twitter.com/GacC6LBFzG
— Dana Greene (@dana_greene) December 15, 2022
While this seems like a predictable situation to fade for fantasy purposes, there are plenty of other opportunities to take advantage of due to injuries/opt-outs.
It’s a unique time in CFB DFS, but it adds to the excitement of trying to find an edge over the field. With the first bowl weekend ready to go, let’s dive into some plays on this mini five-game slate.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
The Play Rates
Team
|
Rush Rate
|
Pass Rate
|
Boise State
|
54.5%
|
45.0%
|
BYU
|
50.5%
|
49.1%
|
Florida
|
53.9%
|
45.3%
|
Fresno State
|
42.1%
|
56.5%
|
North Texas
|
52.7%
|
46.3%
|
Oregon State
|
59.5%
|
39.3%
|
Rice
|
52.8%
|
45.4%
|
SMU
|
46.6%
|
52.4%
|
Southern Mississippi
|
52.3%
|
45.6%
|
Washington State
|
34.8%
|
64.6%
|
Quarterback Rush Attempts
Player
|
Team
|
Attempts
|
Yards
|
Touchdowns
|
|
Boise State
|
59
|
504
|
8
|
|
BYU
|
54
|
403
|
3
|
|
BYU
|
4
|
2
|
0
|
Jack Miller
|
Florida
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Fresno State
|
14
|
36
|
2
|
|
North Texas
|
29
|
108
|
1
|
|
Oregon State
| 25 | 82 | 4 |
TJ McMahon
|
Rice
|
24
|
304
|
3
|
AJ Padgett
|
Rice
|
14
|
52
|
0
|
Shawqi Itraish
|
Rice
|
1
|
4
|
0
|
|
Rice
|
1
|
3
|
0
|
|
SMU
|
20
|
213
|
2
|
Zach Wilcke
|
Southern Miss
|
22
|
138
|
0
|
Trey Lowe
|
Southern Miss
|
8
|
58
|
0
|
|
Washington State
|
30
|
312
|
5
|
Jake Haener, QB (Fresno State)
DraftKings Price: $8,000
Quarterbacks can break a slate wide open in college football DFS, and I like Fresno State’s Jake Haener to light things up in what’s expected to be his final college football game.
For starters, Haener and the Bulldogs have the second-highest pass rate of any team on the slate this weekend (56.5%) and Washington State is allowing the 19th-most passing yards per game (266.7). Additionally, has just one reported opt-out heading into this game -- a lightly-used defensive back who nobody will notice is out.
Washington State, on the other hand, has down three of its four top receiving targets, which makes Cameron Ward ($7,400) a difficult guy to trust despite Washington State being the most pass-heavy team on the slate (64.6%).
Haener has struggled in recent weeks, throwing for just 367 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games, but he’s managed to surpass 300 passing yards in all but three of his starts this season. His 72% completion percentage ranks second in the nation among qualified quarterbacks, while his 8.2 YPA is tied for 28th.
Wide receiver Jalen Moreno-Cropper (79-1047-5) is expected to suit up in this one, giving Haener his No. 1 receiver on the afternoon. Given Fresno State’s pass rate, Haener’s success and the Bulldogs having all of their players active for this one, I like Haener despite him being the second-highest priced quarterback on the slate.
Tanner Mordecai, QB (SMU)
DraftKings Price: $6,900
SMU will be without lead receiver Rashee Rice (96-1344-10), who is dealing with a broken toe. Tanner Mordecai losing his top receiving threat doesn’t sound great on the surface, but he and the Mustangs are facing a BYU team that is expected to be down its top three quarterbacks with Jaren Hall expected to be out.
The Mustangs have thrown at a 52.4% clip this season, and Mordecai is the second-best quarterback on the slate in fantasy points per game (25.8) this weekend. The senior quarterback has been known to go off for big games, which included a 65.56 performance against Houston earlier this season, and a 41.84 point output against Navy.
BYU is allowing the 48th-most passing yards per game this season (235.7), which isn’t great as is. Now, given a potentially bad quarterback situation, the Cougars could be handing offensive possessions to SMU all afternoon -- which seems good for fantasy purposes.
We’ll touch more on some potential stacks with Mordecai in a bit.
Nakia Watson, RB (Washington State)
DraftKings Price: $6,500
As previously mentioned in the Jake Haener portion of this article, Washington State is down three of its four top receivers. The Cougars may stick with their pass-heavy approach to some degree, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them feed Nakia Watson a bit more given their lack of receiving options.
Over the final four weeks of the season, Watson went on an absolute heater, rushing 66 times for 411 yards and six touchdowns while adding another 15-142-2 through the air. He’s averaged 31.1 fantasy points per game over that span, with his lowest-scoring game being a 25.6-point output against Arizona.
Watson has averaged a solid 3.50 YCO/ATT this season and has forced a missed tackle on 23.5% of his carries per PFF. With 181 vacated targets heading into the weekend, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see Watson further implemented in the receiving game. He caught seven passes in the team’s last game of the regular season and has seen five or more targets in three games this season.
George Holani, RB (Boise State)
DraftKings Price: $7,700
Boise State currently sits as a 10.5-point favorite over North Texas, who will be without former head coach Seth Littrell. Despite suffering a shoulder injury in the Mountain West championship game, it appears George Holani will suit up for the Broncos in what may be the final game of his college career.
This season, Holani has rushed 214 times for 1,132 yards and 10 touchdowns while hauling in another 22 passes for 153 yards and two scores.
At $7,700, Holani is one of the higher-priced backs on the slate but gets a Mean Green defense that’s allowing the 25th-most rushing yards per game (188.4) this season. Boise State has thrived off a solid defense and strong rushing attack, running at a 54.5% rate this season.
If you’re looking for a galaxy brain pivot off of Holani, a shot on backup running back Ashton Jeanty (128-643-6, $4,800) doesn’t look like the worst investment. Jeanty has seen double-digit carries in seven games this season and is averaging a solid 5.0 YPC and has 11 breakaway runs on the season per PFF.
Robert Ferrel, WR (Washington State)
DraftKings Price: $5,100
Of the three receivers to opt out for Washington State, slot receiver Robert Ferrel is expected to play and could find himself in a big role.
Ferrel finished third on the Cougars in targets (610) but finished second in receptions (46), receiving yards (527) and touchdowns (4). Already heavily involved in Washington’s State’s passing attack, the absence of No. 1 receiver De’Zhaun Stribling (51-602-5) and No. 3 receiver Donovan Ollie (43-483-3) should force quarterback Cameron Ward to funnel even more targets to his slot man.
A bit of a hit or miss, Ferrel has gone for 60 or more yards in four games this season and went for a season-high 131 receiving yards in Week 7 against Oregon State. He’s averaging a solid 6.5 YAC/REC on the season and ranks 86th in the nation in YAC (301).
Given the pricey plays I’m willing to roll with, a slot receiver who could stumble into a 10+ target day feels like a relatively safe bet that’s on the cheaper side this weekend.
Jordan Kerley, WR (SMU)
DraftKings Price: $5,900
If you’re rolling with Tanner Mordecai, you must find a receiver to pair him with. Fortunately, the fine folks at DraftKings make this decision rather easy, pricing SMU’s WR2, Jordan Kerley at a generous $5,900.
Kerley will theoretically be forced into the WR1 role for SMU this weekend after going for 31-538-5 in the regular season. While lacking the raw numbers that Rashee Rice (96-1344-10) provided this season, Kerley had a higher catch rate (68.9%), YPR (17.4), aDOT (12.7) and YAC/REC (9.6) than Rice, which is enough to suggest he could be in for a big day against BYU.
He went for 100+ yards twice this season and caught 6-of-9 targets for 76 yards and one touchdown in the team’s regular-season finale vs. Memphis.
Were it not for a three-game absence due to injury, Kerley could have had a far more productive season than he did. Nevertheless, the 6-foot-2, 189-pound playmaker has been solid in a supporting role, and now gets a chance to shine in a bowl game with Rice sidelined.
