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Playing DFS games in heavy rain and wind is never a good idea. As spreadsheet nerds, we prefer to remain indoors at all times, especially during inclement weather.
Ohio State and Northwestern should’ve considered doing the same. One of my favorite wide receivers plays on the week, Buckeyes receiver Julian Fleming, was grounded last weekend (a common theme for all OSU and Northwestern players in Week 10) as the Buckeyes managed just 76 passing yards in one of the worst weather games of the season.
Instead, Buckeyes running back Miyan Williams turned in a 26-111-2 effort to lead his team to a 21-7 win, in a game where TreVeyon Henderson was also sidelined.
I was lucky enough to have one of my picks pop in the optimal lineup last week, as Texas A&M running back Devon Achane went for 36.3 points on DraftKings while totaling 134 yards and three touchdowns in a loss to Florida. Oregon running back Noah Whittington and North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye both quadrupled their Week 10 salary, which made for a fun afternoon of DFS.
This weekend features a few massive mismatches on paper, and hot offenses going up against bad defenses. A few players have also been slept on by the fine folks over at DraftKings, which should open the door for some roster flexibility.
Without further delay, let’s have a look at some of my favorite Week 11 plays.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
The Play Rates
Team | Rush Rate | Pass Rate |
Alabama | 41.5% | 58.5% |
Arkansas | 60.4% | 38.9% |
Clemson | 53.0% | 46.8% |
Duke | 52.8% | 46.8% |
Illinois | 56.6% | 43.2% |
Indiana | 35.0% | 64.1% |
Iowa State | 39.1% | 59.7% |
Louisville | 56.5% | 42.7% |
LSU | 47.6% | 52.4% |
Maryland | 48.5% | 51.2% |
Michigan | 59.9% | 39.9% |
Missouri | 52.7% | 45.7% |
Navy | 79.5% | 19.8% |
Nebraska | 50.4% | 48.7% |
Notre Dame | 60.7% | 39.0% |
Ohio State | 50.4% | 49.4% |
Oklahoma | 53.6% | 45.8% |
Oklahoma State | 46.7% | 52.8% |
Ole Miss | 63.3% | 36.3% |
Penn State | 49.6% | 50.4% |
Purdue | 39.0% | 59.4% |
SMU | 44.9% | 53.8% |
South Florida | 54.4% | 44.5% |
Tennessee | 51.8% | 48.2% |
Tulane | 54.5% | 44.8% |
UCF | 55.5% | 43.6% |
Virginia Tech | 46.6% | 52.9% |
West Virginia | 44.9% | 54.4% |
Quarterback Rush Attempts
Player | Team | Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns |
Alabama | 1 | 216 | 3 | |
Arkansas | 78 | 519 | 6 | |
Clemson | 74 | 456 | 4 | |
Duke | 51 | 630 | 9 | |
Illinois | 30 | 163 | 4 | |
Indiana | 17 | 52 | 1 | |
Iowa State | 32 | 195 | 2 | |
Malik Cunningham | Louisville | 66 | 591 | 11 |
LSU | 55 | 752 | 10 | |
Maryland | 21 | 177 | 3 | |
Michigan | 28 | 250 | 2 | |
Missouri | 50 | 311 | 5 | |
Navy | 104 | 353 | 5 | |
Nebraska | 14 | 128 | 5 | |
Notre Dame | 15 | 145 | 1 | |
C.J. Stroud | Ohio State | 17 | 96 | 0 |
Oklahoma | 29 | 287 | 4 | |
Oklahoma State | 57 | 381 | 8 | |
Ole Miss | 62 | 513 | 0 | |
Penn State | 24 | 179 | 4 | |
Purdue | 9 | 15 | 1 | |
SMU | 17 | 179 | 2 | |
South Florida | 47 | 406 | 3 | |
Tennessee | 36 | 465 | 4 | |
Tulane | 44 | 339 | 5 | |
UCF | 75 | 589 | 7 | |
Virginia Tech | 54 | 326 | 6 | |
West Virginia | 8 | 36 | 1 |
Mispriced Player of the Week
Tyler Lavine, RB (SMU)
DraftKings Price: $3,400
God bless the fine folks tasked with doing the weekly pricing over at DraftKings. Often generous enough to give us one or two gifts a week, this week’s gift of Tyler Lavine at $3,400 is too sweet to pass up. This could lead to him being a wildly chalky play, but he’s a name you should know nonetheless.
Lavine, who had just 17 carries for 75 yards and two touchdowns through his first five games of the season has totaled 42 carries for 218 yards and four touchdowns over his last two games. During those two weeks, Lavine has not only dominated in touches but also snaps. His 53 offensive snaps over the last two weeks lead all SMU backs, with Velton Gardner coming in a distant second at 34 offensive snaps.
Given his recent string of success, it’s going to be hard for SMU to ignore Lavine heading into a generous Week 11 matchup against USF. The Mustangs sit as 17.5-point road dogs and should have a generous game script throughout the day. Lavine could run the risk of being pulled in a blowout but at $3,400, even a decent day on the ground will return value to DFS lineups.
Lavine needs just 10.2 points to triple his salary value on the weekend, but could easily punish a USF team that’s allowing the 11th-most rushing yards per game (214.0) to opposing offenses. If you’re looking for a cheap SMU tournament stack, wide receiver Dylan Goffney ($3,000) has gone for 100+ yards in two of his last four games, with touchdowns coming in each of those performances. He’s averaging an impressive 21.4 YPR on the season and is a legitimate boom-or-bust option this weekend. Goffney could surprise with a long score against USF and open up a lot of roster flexibility for DFS lineups.
Jayden Daniels, QB (LSU)
DraftKings Price: $8,500
Shoutout to Jayden Daniels and the Tigers for pulling off the home upset over Alabama last weekend. Daniels and the company have been running hot as of late, which has paid off well in real life and fantasy. Over his last three games, Daniels has averaged 45.05 fantasy points per game on DraftKings and had back-to-back 51-point performances in Weeks 7 and 8.
During those three weeks, Daniels has thrown for 779-7-0 and has added another 260 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground.
Video game numbers.
LSU hits the road for a matchup with Arkansas this weekend, but the Razorbacks have struggled on defense this season, allowing the 16th-most offensive yards per game (443.0) and the third-most passing yards per game (302.1).
Yes, Daniels is $8,500 and that feels like a high price to pay. But elite quarterback production continues to look like one of the strongest paths to CFB DFS glory, and Daniels is too hot to fade this weekend.
Hunter Dekkers, QB (Iowa State)
DraftKings Price: $5,700
Touting Hunter Dekkers always feels dangerous, even though Iowa State is one of the most pass-heavy teams in the nation at 59.7%. Dekkers is averaging just 18.9 fantasy points per game on DraftKings this season and has only surpassed 20 fantasy points once in his last five games.
Nevertheless, how can I not tout Dekkers and the Cyclones against an Oklahoma State defense that’s allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game (291.6) on the season? Dekkers ranks ninth in the nation in overall pass attempts (356) and is 26th in total passing yards (2,370) per PFF.
Tethered to one of the more productive receivers in the nation in Xavier Hutchinson (87-953-6), one would think Dekkers would offer a bit more from a DFS perspective. He’s also offered a little bit of production (32-195-2) on the ground.
For a guy that should be posting more fantasy points than he is, I like Dekkers to turn in a decent performance against Oklahoma State. This blew up in my face a few weeks ago against Oklahoma (308-1-1), but against a struggling Cowboys defense, I’m willing to run it back with Dekkers one more time.
Justin Johnson Jr., RB (West Virginia)
DraftKings Price: $4,600
West Virginia lost true freshman superstar C.J. Donaldson to a season-ending leg injury, and running back Tony Mathis Jr. was sidelined for the team’s Week 10 matchup against Iowa State.
With Donaldson and Mathis sidelined, Johnson emerged to lead the Mountaineers in rushing against Iowa State, rushing 12 times for 48 yards on the day. Johnson has received double-digit carries in five of his last six games, with his best performance coming in Week 4 against Virginia Tech (11-83-1).
Johnson almost made the list as the mispriced player of the week, but there’s some risk baked into him with Mathis potentially returning this week. Even if Mathis does return, Johnson could still see some decent run, but his 77-333-3 line is somewhat underwhelming -- although at $4,600, he’s still intriguing.
West Virginia plays host to an Oklahoma defense that’s allowing the 13th-most rushing yards per game (199.9) and the 22nd-most offensive yards (435.2) overall. Offensively, West Virginia has struggled at times, but this game has the potential to be an absolute shootout. With an over/under of 66, the Mountaineers get the benefit of playing this one at home but are still being treated as eight-point underdogs.
Johnson’s seeing enough volume to have a shot at a decent day. Needing 13.8 points to triple his salary on the week, Johnson wouldn’t need to do much to turn into respectable play.
Logan Diggs, RB (Notre Dame)
DraftKings Price: $4,500
Over the last three weeks, Logan Diggs has emerged as the Irish’s lead back. His heavy workload has led to only one rushing touchdown over that span, but Diggs has been solid of late, rushing 65 times for 329 yards over the last three weeks while averaging 5.1 YPC.
Notre Dame heads into this weekend’s matchup as 16.5-point road favorites against a 3-6 Navy team that should be fairly overmatched. The result? A run-heavy approach from an Irish team that’s already rushing at a 60.7% rate.
Diggs would benefit from some positive touchdown regression and could find the end zone once or twice this weekend. The fact he’s the second-highest running back on Notre Dame this week also adds to his appeal. Running back Audric Estime is priced at $5,400 and rushed for 18-104-1 vs. Clemson. Both running backs are bargains this week and could offer a good return.
Kayshon Boutte, WR (LSU)
DraftKings Price: $5,300
We’re only a few weeks removed from me fading TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston, knowing full well he’d eventually burn me one week. Now I’m doing my best to avoid it this week with Kayshon Boutte.
As previously mentioned, LSU faces a bad Arkansas defense and is riding the hot play of Jayden Daniels. Boutte, who got off to a slow start this season, has caught 17 passes for 209 yards during Daniels’ recent hot streak and has led the Tigers with 23 targets over that span.
Despite his down season, Boutte has a chance to be the first receiver off the board in next year’s draft if he declares. He has seen eight or more targets in four of the Tigers’ last six games and caught six passes for 115 yards in the team’s Week 7 win over Florida.
Boutte’s aDOT of 8.6 is embarrassingly low, but that has more to do with his quarterback and scheme than it does his performance. Still, against a bad Arkansas defense, he could find room to roam for a few big plays, and may even find the end zone for his second touchdown on the season.
Kaleb Smith, WR (Virginia Tech)
DraftKings Price: $5,200
Virginia Tech isn’t good. The Hokies are 2-7 on the season, have blown a few double-digit leads late, and are 9.5-point road underdogs to Duke this weekend. For better or worse, the Hokies will have to find a way to hang with a Blue Devils team that’s averaging 24.8 points per game and is ranked 49th in offensive years per game (418.6).
Offensively, the Hokies are posting the 13th-fewest yards per game (315.9) and rank 112th in points per game with 20.2. Kaleb Smith has led the Hokies in receiving this season, going for 35-847-3 while averaging 18.5 YPR. He’s averaging 6 targets per game but could be in line for more volume if Duke can drive the score up a bit.
Playing in a broken offense may not bode well for Smith regardless of game script, but at $5,200, I like how this one could play out. Despite Duke’s 6-3 record, the Blue Devils are still allowing 395.1 yards per game and are allowing the 21st-most passing yards per game (270.3). Smith and the Hokies could find some offensive success this weekend -- something they’re desperately in need of. He’s averaging 13.6 fantasy points per game on DraftKings and has four games of 14 or more fantasy points. He’s a high-ceiling, low-floor guy that could be in store for a solid day facing a negative game script.
