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Make it two-straight weeks that a player I liked in DFS was surprisingly sidelined for a contest. It was nice of Utah running back Tavion Thomas to give us a heads up on Friday that he would be declaring for the 2023 NFL Draft and wouldn’t play another game for Utah, but for an article that drops every Tuesday, it did little to help me out in the moment.
On a brighter note, the absence of Tavion Thomas in our DFS lineups was made up for by FAU’s Larry McCammon. McCammon ended up cracking the perfect lineup in last week’s contests after he rushed for 16 times for 127 yards and two touchdowns while adding another five catches for 48 yards vs. Western Kentucky -- both season-highs.
James Madison‘s Todd Centeio and Penn State’s Sean Clifford both tripled their Week 13 values, with Centeio going off for 36.0 points in a blowout win over Coastal Carolina.
With conference championship week now upon us, we’re working with just an eight-game main slate over on DraftKings this weekend. Three conference championships will be played on Friday -- including USC vs. Utah, which inevitably robs us of the opportunity to stack a game that totaled 85 points earlier this season. But there are still other exciting ways to get in on the action as the CFB DFS season draws to a close.
Let’s have a look at the games in play and see
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
The Play Rates
Team | Rush Rate | Pass Rate |
Boise State | 55.6% | 43.8% |
Clemson | 53.7% | 46.2% |
Coastal Carolina | 55.2% | 44.2% |
Fresno State | 41.3% | 57.3% |
Georgia | 51.0% | 49.0% |
Kansas State | 57.4% | 42.6% |
LSU | 49.2% | 50.8% |
Michigan | 59.7% | 40.1% |
North Carolina | 45.1% | 54.7% |
Ohio | 49.2% | 50.1% |
Purdue | 41.6% | 57.0% |
TCU | 51.5% | 48.4% |
Toledo | 52.8% | 45.5% |
Troy | 48.4% | 50.0% |
Tulane | 54.8% | 44.6% |
UCF | 55.1% | 44.1% |
Quarterback Rush Attempts
Player | Team | Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns |
Boise State | 51 | 474 | 8 | |
Clemson | 111 | 664 | 7 | |
Jarrett Guest | Coastal Carolina | 11 | 95 | 1 |
Fresno State | 10 | 38 | 2 | |
Georgia | 35 | 234 | 7 | |
Kansas State | 25 | 49 | 2 | |
LSU | 74 | 1003 | 11 | |
Michigan | 38 | 306 | 4 | |
North Carolina | 66 | 801 | 6 | |
C.J. Harris | Ohio | 20 | 104 | 3 |
Purdue | 14 | 71 | 1 | |
TCU | 63 | 462 | 5 | |
Toledo | 44 | 601 | 8 | |
Toledo | 17 | 237 | 3 | |
Troy | 9 | 50 | 2 | |
Tulane | 64 | 446 | 9 | |
UCF | 99 | 904 | 11 |
Mispriced Player of the Week
C.J. Harris, QB (Ohio)
DraftKings Price: $5,500
C.J. Harris got the start for Ohio last week with quarterback Kurtis Rourke sidelined for the remainder of the season. A three-star quarterback from the 2020 class, Harris and the Bobcats ran train on Bowling Green last weekend on the way to a 38-13 win. Harris managed 196 yards and one touchdown through the air, but it was his ground game that really stood out.
Harris is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback and proved as much last weekend. He rushed 11 times for 65 yards and three touchdowns last weekend per PFF, which included six designed runs -- the most designed QB runs Ohio has dialed up in a game this season.
Facing a Toledo defense that’s allowing the 74th-most points per game (27.1), Harris could have plenty of scoring opportunities in this weekend’s MAC championship game. If he and the Bobcats, who are allowing 29.3 points per game and 441.3 yards per game, get pushed by Toledo, this game could turn into a DFS gold mine.
Harris isn’t the only cheap player in this game, as Toledo quarterbacks Dequan Finn ($6,700) and Tucker Gleason ($6,00) are both nicely priced -- although you’ll want to confirm which player is getting the start before inserting either into your lineup.
Will Howard, QB (Kansas State)
DraftKings Price: $6,300
On any given week Will Howard as the potential to be a DFS money printer. The junior quarterback has thrown for 1,224-13-2 through five games and has rushed 25 times for 49 yards and another two scores. He underwhelmed from a fantasy perspective in last week’s win over Kansas, throwing for just 213 yards and two touchdowns on his way to 15.72 fantasy points, but Howard is averaging 23.0 fantasy points per game on DraftKings and has gone for 25+ points in three of his five games. If he manages that this weekend in a game that has the second-highest projected total on the slate (over/under 62), then he will easily pay off at his $6,300 price.
The Wildcats will need on hands on deck to knock off an undefeated TCU team that beat them 38-28 earlier this year. In that game, Howard was solid, completing 13-of-20 passes for 225 yards, two touchdowns and one interception while scoring 25.1 fantasy points. TCU is allowing over 24 points per game and has found itself in a handful of shootouts throughout the season. They’ve allowed 30+ points in four of their 12 games this season and have an explosive offense that ranks fifth in the nation in points per play (0.562).
Any quick scores by TCU could bode well for DFS players willing to take a shot on Howard as he and the Wildcats look to keep pace.
Will Shipley, RB (Clemson)
DraftKings Price: $6,800
Will Shipley‘s price on DraftKing remains an enigma. Despite averaging 21.3 fantasy points per game and over 100 yards from scrimmage per game, Shipley has yet to crack the $7,000 price barrier on DraftKings.
In last week’s loss to South Carolina, Shipley rushed 15 times for 132 yards and one touchdown, scoring for the fifth-consecutive time and the 14th time on the season. Shipley has scored in all but two of Clemson’s games this season, and gets a chance to put on a show against a North Carolina defense that’s allowing the 15th-most yards per game (442.7) and the 28th-most points per game (30.3).
This season, Shipley has rushed for 1,076 yards and 14 touchdowns while ranking 21st in the nation in YCO/ATT among qualified running backs (3.40). He’s rushed for 15+ yards on just 13 of his 186 carries this season, but his volume in Clemson’s run-oriented offense makes him a valuable DFS option on any given week.
Clemson and UNC have the highest-projected total of any game on the weekend (over/under 63.5), in a matchup that should be ripe for fantasy points. Correlating Shipley with Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye ($8,500) could prove profitable if the game goes as the books are expecting.
Kimani Vidal, RB (Troy)
DraftKings Price: $5,700
Apparently, back-to-back 200-yard rushing performances isn’t enough to get you more respect among DraftKings price setters. That’s exactly what Kimani Vidal has done, as the sophomore running back has totaled 450 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns over the last two weeks. His 62 rush attempts over that span are well ahead of the 19 carries backup DK Billingsley has received, and his 25 missed tackles forced are tops among all FBS backs.
It’s a small two-week sample size, but there’s no mistaking Vidal’s recent emergence in Troy’s backfield. He’s seen 20+ carries in three of Troy’s last four games and is averaging an absurd 31.0 fantasy points per game.
Vidal and the Trojans will look to take advantage of a Coastal Carolina team that was just stomped out in a 44-7 loss to James Madison. The Chanticleers allowed 215 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the loss and have allowed 145+ yards in five games this season. To their credit, Coastal Carolina has also held six of their opponents under 100 rushing yards, but if quarterback Grayson McCall (questionable) is unable to suit up this weekend, then Troy could have multiple opportunities to establish the run against a defense that’s susceptible to giving up big days on the ground.
Quentin Johnston, WR (TCU)
DraftKings Price: $6,500
Big players show up in big spots, and there’s perhaps no bigger spot than the one undefeated TCU finds itself in this weekend. With a shot to play in the college football playoffs on the line, TCU will need all hands on deck if they hope to down Kansas State this weekend, and that includes future NFL first-rounder Quentin Johnston, who missed last week’s matchup against Iowa State despite participating in warmups.
The fact that Johnston was able to warm up with the team last week is enough to suggest he has a real shot at playing in what’s arguably the biggest game in his career.
After a slow start to the season, Johnston has pulled things together to total 49 receptions for 764 yards and five touchdowns and has averaged 22.85 fantasy points per game since Week 6.
Kansas State limited Johnston to just four catches for 74 yards and one touchdown the last time these two teams played, but even the 17.4 points he provided last week would be close to enough to make him a worthwhile play this weekend.
Be sure to check in on Johnston’s status prior to kickoff, but if he’s active, I like him at his $6,500 price as he fights for a chance to play for a national championship in January.
