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Ohio State (-29) over Iowa - Opened at (-21)
Since their 21-10 opening week victory over Notre Dame Ohio State has beaten all five of their opponents by at least 29 points. Accordingly, this line rocketed up to that magic 29 number by the end of Sunday. I suppose it’s a compliment to the much maligned Iowa Hawkeyes that Vegas thinks they can stay within that number, as the weekly Ferentz family media sessions explaining Iowa’s stagnant offensive game plans have been uncomfortable to watch. Both teams are off bye, with Iowa riding a two game losing streak to Illinois (9-6) and Michigan (27-14). In their three losses Iowa’s point differential has been just 19 points while playing at the 108th slowest pace in the country. Conversely, they had an 8% post game win expectancy or less in all three contests despite the close score. The problem is Iowa has to shut down Ohio State’s Number 1 ranked offense That leads the nation in yards per play (8.1), points per drive (4.9), explosiveness and a flat out stupendous 62% success rate. I also don’t know how they’re going to move the ball against Ohio State’s 4th overall ranked, DC Jim Knowles coached defense that has turned around substantially from the unit that got barbecued against Michigan and Utah to end last year. I think this game creeps up to 30 by gametime, I lean Ohio State though I could see Iowa playing slow enough to eek out a cover.
Kansas State (+3.5) over @TCU - Opened at (+6)
Six points was an amazing line that got bet down to -5 shortly after open and hung there around 9AM EST with the drop to it’s current -3.5 posted across the board by 11AM. There are very few outliers here at the moment, with no books currently willing to move it to -4 or -3. Kansas State is a completely different team to prepare for from Oklahoma State, TCU’s last opponent. The Horned Frogs’ offense has done an excellent job at the line of scrimmage, averaging 2.84 line yards per carry (36th), but they’ve gotten pushed around at the point of attack on defense, rating 121st in power success rate, 105th in stuff rate and 90th in standard down line yards with a 5.7% sack rate that rates 77th. Now they have to face a ruthlessly efficient Kansas State rushing attack that ranks 9th in rushing performance and will attack TCU in a way that they haven’t dealt with yet behind QB Adrian Martinez who throws an average of 24 passes per game, 9th fewest in FBS. KSU plays at the 98th slowest pace in the country and will look to churn out long drives behind a 53% opportunity rate that ranks 17th in the country and a veteran offensive line that is producing 2.85 line yards per carry, which is right in line with TCU’s excellent rush attack. What it comes down to for me is TCU has had some fortunate luck and is playing a Kansas St. team that ranks 11th in EPA/play allowed. I’m taking the +3.5 points in what I think will be a competitive game where my preseason Big-12 longshot Kansas State (+1,500) will end TCU’s Cinderella run.
Penn State (-4.5) vs. over Minnesota - Opened at (-7)
FanDuel dropped PSU at -7 just after midnight Sunday morning which held until early afternoon when it quickly dropped to -4.5 by the early evening. Veteran Gophers QB Tanner Morgan left Saturday’s game against Illinois with a head injury, but is supposedly feeling better and there is optimism he can play against PSU. It appears that it’s going to take more than some conjecture regarding starting Morgan’s status to move the needle after the Nittany Lions got crushed by Michigan on Saturday though. Even when Morgan was on the field against Illinois he was completely ineffective, completing 4-of-12 passes for 21 yards and an interception before exiting. The Gophers play at the third slowest pace in the country and despite having the ninth ranked rushing offense they managed just 180 total yards against HC Bret Bielema‘s Illini. Tanner Morgan and company weren’t much better against a quality Purdue front two games ago either, rushing 26 times for just 1.8 YPC and 47 yards to go with three interceptions from Morgan in the 20-10 loss. Sure, Penn State got annihilated on the ground by giving up 418 yards and 7.6 YPC to Michigan last weekend. However Minnesota has shown to be inconsistent and turnover prone against two quality opponents over their last two contests. We have seen Penn State beat Purdue, Auburn and Northwestern whereas the best we’ve got from Minnesota is an easy win over a sputtering Michigan State. I don’t trust the Gophers to show up in a big spot against Penn State in Happy Valley and am happy to only lay 4.5 points.
James Madison (-13.5) over vs. Marshall - Opened at (-11)
This Marshall team has collapsed since their inspirational win against Notre Dame that was once looked upon as a potential springboard to a Sun Belt Championship. Instead the Herd have dropped three straight against FCS opponents and are coming off a 23-13 loss to Louisiana where they accrued just 276 yards and 3.2 yards per carry while converting an unsightly 1-for-11 third downs. Marshall faithful are already questioning the wisdom of removing longtime HC Doc Holliday with second-year HC Charles Huff the season after Doc led Marshall to a 7-3 record in the midst of a pandemic. They have the misfortune of traveling to play a 5-1 James Madison team that is coming off their very first loss of the season, a 45-38 shootout against Georgia Southern. Previous to that the Dukes had run through Arkansas State, Texas State and Appalachian State while averaging 43 points and 520 total yards per game and allowing just 20 PPG even after letting up 45 to GaSo. With Marshall scoring just 20 points combined over their last two games, and Texas Tech transfer starting QB Henry Colombi injured and possibly not playing, I expect JMU to easily cover the 13.5 spread and recommend you grab this now before it crosses 14.
UT (-6) over @ Oklahoma State - Opened at (-1)
Easy to understand why this game spiked five points since open, as OSU QB Spencer Sanders is battling through ankle and shoulder injuries, but is still expected to play on Saturday according to recent reports. He will be without starting C Preston Wilson and second-string C Eli Russ, who went down in the third quarter this Saturday against TCU, with Joe Michalski getting the start. Projected preseason WR1 Jaden Bray is out while their other starting outside wideout Braydon Johnson also left and is questionable for this Saturday, so Bryson Green will be asked to step up and make plays in 1-on-1 situations downfield. Texas lost DB Ryan Watts to a stinger last weekend, but HC Steve Sarkisian said there was no structural damage so Watts should be in good shape to play this week. The Ohio State transfer Watts has held up well thus far and was missed upon his exit with his freshmen replacements Austin Jordan and Terrence Brooks suffering coverage lapses. This game was still at -4 at midnight and has continued to move onwards and upwards towards the key number. Texas is in much better shape offensively heading into the contest, both from a talent and health perspective. On D, the Longhorns are prone to coverage busts, ranking 39th in explosiveness allowed but is a very strong unit overall that ranks 11th in yards per play allowed (4.76) and 12th overall against the run according to CFB Winning Edge. OSU’s 49th rated offense hasn’t proven to be capable of stretching the field vertically (56th in EPA/Play) or consistently running the ball (65th w/155 rush YPG/4.0 YPC) and could be very short handed in key areas. I think with Texas at home this continues to climb over 7.5, however I think we could see a late drop when Sanders is officially confirmed to play as the public jumps on OSU.