In a Friday night showdown at Lane Stadium, VA Tech (2-5, 1-2 ACC) hopes its bye-week will help it overcome the Golden Bears of Cal (5-2, 2-1 ACC), who last week won a nail-biter at home, 21-18 over the Tar Heels of North Carolina.
Cal has had an up-and-down season behind exciting freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, while VA Tech will rely on the inconsistent but explosive veteran Kyron Drones. The Hokies are looking to establish some offensive consistency, and their talented but less than reliable roster must convert “on paper” potential into on-field production. Cal, meanwhile, is seeking a sixth win and with it would become bowl-eligible, but the Hokies face a tough remaining schedule if they don’t get the win here. Money is moving in favor of VA Tech in this first-ever regular season matchup between the two schools. Ca, though, has thrived as an underdog this year, setting the stage for a potentially unpredictable prime-time ACC contest.
Lets dive into this game, dissect the schools on both sides of the ball, and see what the numbers tell us.
Game Details and How to watch Cal at Virginia Tech
- Date: Friday, October 24, 2025
- Time: 7:30PM Eastern
- Site: Lane Stadium
- City: Blacksburg, VA
- TV/Streaming: ESPN
Game Odds for Cal at VA Tech
The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: California Bears (+170), Virginia Tech Hokies (-205)
- Spread: VA Tech -5.5 (-110)
- Total: 50.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Cal Golden Bears
Head Coach: Justin Wilcox
2025 Record: 5-2
Offense Ranking: 97
Defense Ranking: 59
Strength of Schedule: 76
California has pieced together a strong 5–2 (2–1 ACC) start thanks to a pass-heavy, defensive oriented identity, ranking 59th in Defensive SP+ while their offense continues to lag at 97th nationally on the offensive side. The Golden Bears’ defense holds opponents to just 1.74 points per drive and 5.27 yards per play, anchored by strong tackling efficiency (32nd) and a top-40 havoc rate that’s been critical in offsetting offensive inefficiency. Offensively, Cal has struggled to sustain drives, posting just a 40.6% success rate (96th) and a meager 3.8 yards per carry (130th) behind one of the nation’s most penalized and least efficient offensive lines. While bowl eligibility looks inevitable, Cal’s lack of explosive playmaking and red-zone consistency will make it difficult to climb beyond the middle of the Pac-12 standings.
The Cal Golden Bears Offense
California’s offense has battled inconsistency all season, ranking 97th in Offensive SP+ with one of the Power Four’s more mistake-prone attacks. The Bears average just 5.08 yards per play with a 40.6% success rate (96th), hampered by poor line play, including a 3.9% pressure rate allowed (125th) and an alarming 42% total blown block rate (133rd nationally). The ground game has been pedestrian, producing only 3.8 yards per rush and ranking 130th in yards before contact at a shallow 0.43 yards, forcing the passing game to shoulder much of the load. Despite flashes of explosiveness on early downs, California’s inability to convert in the red zone and sustain drives has capped their offensive ceiling against stronger ACC defenses.
Cal Player to Watch on Offense: QB Jaron Keawe-Sagapouletele
True freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has a massive arm that has produced several highlight-reel plays. He has also endured growing pains, completing 60.9% of his passes for 1,696 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions across seven starts. His 6.6 adjusted net yards per attempt and 42.7 QBR highlight the inconsistency of a young passer still adapting to pressure, as he’s been sacked on 5.3% of dropbacks while producing a modest 42.1% success rate through the air. Sagapolutele is a true pocket distributor who only scrambles when necessary, rushing for 71 yards and two scores with over half his carries going for zero or negative yards behind a struggling offensive line. While the efficiency numbers remain below average, his arm strength and poise despite being a true freshman suggest Keawe-Sagapouletele could blossom into a NFL caliber program leader.
The Cal Golden Bears Defense
California’s defense has quietly been the stabilizing force behind the Bears’ 5–2 start, ranking 59th in Defensive SP+ and holding opponents to a commendable 28 yards per drive (36th). The unit thrives on discipline and disruption, boasting a Top 40 overall havoc rate (17.2%) with elite ball production in the secondary, as its 42.9% passes-defensed-to-incompletions ratio ranks 7th nationally. The linebackers and secondary have carried the havoc load (6.5% LB havoc rate, 16th/9.5% DB) while the front struggles to generate interior pressure (1.2% DL havoc, 133rd), forcing the defense to rely heavily on coverage integrity. Still, with strong tackling efficiency (87.7% success, 32nd nationally) and a bend-but-don’t-break structure allowing a sound 1.74 points per drive, Cal’s defense has been a fundamentally sound unit.
Cal Player to Watch on Defense: CB Hezekiah Masses
Cornerback Hezekiah Masses has been a true playmaker in coverage, combining sticky man skills with elite ball production to lead the defense with 16 havoc plays and four interceptions with 10 pass breakups through seven games. He’s been targeted 32 times and allowed a sterling 43.8% completion rate and 6.7 yards per attempt, while forcing incompletions on over a third of targets (34.4%). His 13.1 defensive QBR allowed ranks among the nation’s best, reflecting how difficult he’s made life for opposing wideouts despite frequent one-on-one assignments. A physical tackler with 86.1% tackling efficiency and strong run-support discipline, Masses has developed into one of the most complete cornerbacks in the ACC.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Head Coach: Phillip Montgomery
2025 Record: 2-5
Offense Ranking: 91
Defense Ranking: 88
Strength of Schedule: 53
Virginia Tech’s 2025 season has been defined by inconsistency, as the Hokies sit at 2–5 (1–2 ACC) with an SP+ ranking of 91st, hurt by a defense that’s fallen to 88th nationally and an offense that ranks 91st in efficiency. The run game has been the lone bright spot, ranking 23rd in rushing success rate (49.3%) and averaging 5.7 yards per carry, but the passing offense sits just 124th in success rate (35.5%) and 105th in EPA/dropback. Defensively, the Hokies have gotten gashed, allowing 6.09 yards per play (114th) and touchdowns on 75% of red-zone trips (125th), while opposing signal callers complete nearly 69% of their passes. VT is largely incompetent in the trenches (128th w/40.5% blown block rate) with an inability to finish drives on either side of the ball, which has turned competitive games into frustrating losses.
The VA Tech Hokies Offense
Virginia Tech’s offense has been wildly inconsistent through seven games, ranking 91st nationally in Offensive SP+ despite a surprisingly efficient ground game that sits 23rd in rushing success rate (49.3%) and averages 5.7 yards per carry. The Hokies’ backfield has carried the load behind an offensive line that’s struggled mightily in pass protection, allowing pressure on 44.4% of dropbacks (133rd) and ranking 127th in OL penalties per game. Quarterback efficiency has been poor, with a 35.5% passing success rate (124th) and just 5.4 yards per dropback (119th), preventing the offense from sustaining drives or generating explosive plays. While the running game has shown real promise on standard downs, Virginia Tech’s aerial inefficiency and red-zone struggles (57.7% TD rate, 97th) have kept the offense from capitalizing on its few scoring opportunities.
VA Tech Player to Watch on Offense: QB Kyron Drones
Virginia Tech quarterback Kyron Drones has failed to capitalize on the momentous hype he was receiving heading into 2024. This season, Drones has accrued 1,397 passing yards and an 11-to-5 ratio while adding 403 rushing yards and five scores on the ground. He’s completing 60.6% of his passes (101st) with efficiency being limited by a 39.7% success rate and a 7.2% sack rate, reflecting inconsistency behind a beleaguered offensive line. Despite flashes of dual-threat upside, turnovers (5 INT/2 Fumbles) and drive-stalling sacks continue to cap the offense’s ceiling, limiting Drones’ overall QBR to 50.5.
The VA Tech Hokies Defense
Virginia Tech’s defense has been one of the ACC’s most disappointing units, ranking 88th nationally in Defensive SP+ while giving up 6.09 yards per play (114th) and 5.21 points per scoring opportunity (131st). The Hokies have struggled mightily against the pass, allowing opponents to complete 68.8% of throws (127th) with 10.2 adjusted net yards per attempt (126th) and 20.3% of completions going for 20+ yards (121st). Their front has generated modest disruption with a 6.7% sack rate (43rd) and 15.9% havoc rate (55th) but hasn’t been able to mask consistent coverage breakdowns and poor tackling on the perimeter. While the unit shows effort in the trenches, ranking 66th in tackle success rate, Virginia Tech’s defense has been plagued by explosive plays, red-zone lapses, and an overall lack of playmaking in critical moments.
VA Tech Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Ben Bell
Edge rusher Ben Bell has been Virginia Tech’s most consistent disruptor off the edge, logging 31 total tackles, 4.0 tackles for loss, and 1.5 sacks through seven games. He generated an impressive 22 pressures on 123 rushes (17.9% pressure rate), showing a strong ability to collapse the pocket even when not finishing plays. Bell has also added four havoc plays and four run stops, pairing solid edge containment with reliable tackling (88.6% tackle rate). While he’s still converting pressure into sacks at a modest clip, Bell’s steady backfield disruption has made him a key component of the Hokies’ front seven.
Cal at VA Tech team stats, betting trends
- VA Tech has lost 9 of its last 10 home games against teams with a winning record
- VA Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 as a home favorite
- VA Tech’s average home game score this season (58.0) is over the Total (49.5)
Rotoworld Best Bet
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Kyron Drones UNDER 194.5 Passing Yards
Virginia Tech has been a profound disappointment this season, losing to in-state G5 program Old Dominion with HC Brent Pry being unceremoniously fired. QB Kyron Drones has been part and parcel to the team’s woeful performance with 5 of his 11 passing TDs, and his two most productive passing games, coming against Old Dominion and FCS Wofford. Regarding Drones’ passing yardage line of 194.5 yards, it’s a number that he has failed to clear in his last four games against P4 opponents, and in 2024 he went under 194.5 in 7 of his last 8 games. Cal’s defense is noticeably skewed, ranking 121st in both stuff rate (15%) and yards after contact allowed (3.04), but excelling against the pass 32nd in EPA/dropback and 6th in DB havoc rate (9.5%!). Accordingly, I’m backing Kyron Drones to go Under his 194.5 Passing Yards line.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NCAAF calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Cal and VA Tech
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the California Golden Bears at +4.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 50.5.
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