Daijun Edwards, RB, Georgia at Tennessee - Over 74.5 Rushing Yards
The Tennessee defensive line held the point of attack in victories over Texas A&M, Virginia and Kentucky, keeping each opponent under 100 rushing yards. However in their three losses against Florida, Alabama and Missouri, the Vols got blown up for 192 rushing yards per game. For their part, Georgia’s offense is averaging a gaudy 40 PPG (6th nationally) 7.2 yards per play (5th) and a 51.7% success rate (7th). Missouri RB Cody Schrader just rang up over 200 rushing yards on UT and Daijun Edwards has gone for 75 yards or more in three of the last four games. I see the Dawgs taking care of Tennessee by more than the 10 point spread with Daijun getting 16+ carries, which means Edwards goes Over 74.5 Rushing Yards in Knoxville.
Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oklahoma vs. BYU - Over 32.5 Pass Attempts
This is an incredible line, as Gabriel has failed to throw at least 36 passes in just one Big 12 contest, and that was in a certifiable tornado against Kansas where he only attempted 19 throws. The Sooners need to win out to keep their Big 12 Championship Game hopes alive, so they will be throwing the kitchen sink at an overmatched BYU secondary that is buckling under the weight of the Power Five heavy schedule, ranking 99th in defensive success rate (44%) and 96th in EPA/Play. With Gabriel going Over 32.5 pass attempts in six of his last seven games, this is an easy Over play and a cornerstone of all my Underdog parlays.
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Dominic Richardson, RB, Baylor at TCU - Under 0.5 Rush & Receiving Touchdowns
The Baylor season has been a near catastrophe, with the Bears sitting at 3-7 and ranking amongst the worst defenses in the Power Five. Offensively they rank 104th in success rate (39%) and 96th overall with a paltry 22 points per game average. The Bears are employing a three-man running back rotation with Richardson leading the committee in snaps (109) alongside Dawson Pendergrass (84) and Richard Reese (76). Though his carry share increased to 17 last week, that represents a season-high in usage with Pendergrass out gaining RIchardson in the previous two contests. In regard to this prop, Richardson has yet to find the end zone all season long, so it’s puzzling why Underdog would put this up as an Over/Under as opposed to a TD odds boost. With a divided, three-way backfield situation, a flawed offense and Richardson having failed to record a single TD all season long, take this Under 0.5 Touchdowns prop to the bank before it gets taken down.
John Rhys Plumlee, QB, UCF at Texas Tech - Over 226.5 Passing Yards
JRP started out the season by eclipsing the 272 passing yards barrier in each if his first two games despite getting banged up in his September 9th non-conference showdown against Boise State. He would miss multiple games before returning October 7th and throwing just seven passes against Kansas before departing and missing the following game. Since he returned to health on October 21st, Plumless has thrown for at least 248 yards in three of his last four games, with his lone Under coming against Cincinnati in a game where they ran for 228 yards on the ground. Texas Tech plays at the 10th quickest pace in the nation offensively and allows 27 points per game (61st) on defense. With Plumlee throwing for 248 yards or more in five of his six starts this season, and UCF obliterating Oklahoma State’s defense last game, i’m backing the Over 226.5 Passing Yardage prop on Plumlee.