Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa, No. 10 Alabama (3-1) looks for a measure of revenge while No. 16 Vanderbilt (5-0) looks to repeat history when the two schools collide in a crucial SEC matchup.
Last season the Commodores rolled the Tide, 40-35 in Nashville. Diego Pavia threw for 252 yards and a couple scores and rushed for 56 yards to lead the Vandy attack…and he is back this year looking to pull the upset at Alabama.
Alabama has played the part of a Top 10 team since their Week 1 loss to Florida State. Plagued by slow starts under second-year Head Coach Kalen DeBoer, the Crimson Tide jumped Georgia at the start last weekend in Athens and won a hard-fought and crucial SEC clash in Athens, 24-21.
Can Pavia continue his magical run at Vandy or will Ty Simpson keep Bama trending in the right direction? Lets take a closer look at each school and their underlying metrics. No doubt we’ll find a sweat or two along the way.
Game Details and How to watch Alabama vs. Vanderbilt
- Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025
- Time: 3:30P Eastern
- Site: Bryant-Denny Stadium
- City: Tuscaloosa, AL
- TV/Streaming: ABC
Game Odds for Alabama vs. Vanderbilt
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Alabama Crimson Tide (-425), Vanderbilt Commodores (+330)
- Spread: Alabama -10.5 (-112)
- Total: 55.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Alabama Crimson Tide
Head Coach: Kalen DeBoer
2025 Record: 3-1
Offense Ranking: 18
Defense Ranking: 12
Strength of Schedule: 3
The 2025 Alabama Crimson Tide are off to a 3–1 start under head coach Kalen DeBoer, powered by an elite passing offense and a defense that has quietly posted Top 15 efficiency and havoc metrics. Alabama ranks 10th nationally in SP+ (18th Offense, 12th Defense) despite a tough strength of schedule, including a road loss to Florida State and a statement win at Georgia where they exceeded SP+ expectations. Offensively, the Tide boast the 6th-best points per drive (3.80), 12th-best EPA per dropback, and Top 25 ranks in adjusted net yards per attempt (11.6) and passing success rate (51.6%), though their rushing attack remains below average (115th in success rate). Defensively, Alabama is stout against the run on standard downs (2nd SD run rate allowed) and forces opponents into predictable passing situations (1st in passing downs run rate), while benefiting from elite turnover luck (+7 margin, 3rd nationally).
The Alabama Crimson Tide Offense
Alabama’s offense ranks 18th in SP+ and is driven by an elite passing game that averages 11.6 adjusted net yards per attempt (16th) and ranks 12th in EPA per dropback. The Crimson Tide boast the 6th-best points per drive nationally (3.80), convert third downs at a 53.6% clip (14th), and feature one of the nation’s best down-set conversion rates (83.3%, 9th). Despite their efficiency through the air—including a 69.7% completion rate and 83.9 Total QBR—Alabama’s rushing attack lags behind, ranking just 115th in success rate and 110th in yards per rush. The offense plays with a deliberate tempo (115th in adjusted pace), leaning heavily on a high-leverage, low-mistake passing attack that has yet to commit a turnover through four games.
Alabama Player to Watch on Offense: QB Ty Simpson
Ty Simpson has emerged as the leader of the Alabama offense, completing 69.3% of his passes for 1,138 yards, 11 touchdowns, and zero interceptions through four starts. His efficiency is reflected in an elite 11.0 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), 8.3 yards per dropback, and a strong 84.2 Total QBR. Simpson has also contributed on the ground with 86 rushing yards and 2 scores on 17 carries, posting a 47.1% rushing success rate and converting 35.3% of his runs into first downs. Despite taking pressure on 15.4% of dropbacks, his 3.1% sack rate shows poise under duress and effective pocket mobility.
The Alabama Crimson Tide Defense
Alabama’s defense ranks 12th in SP+ and excels in limiting explosive plays, holding opponents to just 5.05 yards per play (50th) and -0.04 EPA per play (44th). The unit thrives on early-down discipline—ranking 26th in standard downs success rate and 1st in passing downs run rate—while allowing only 1.29 yards per carry before contact (57th). The pass rush pressure rate is lacking (28.2%, 84th), and it doesn’t often translate into sacks (5.9%, 77th). Opponents have enjoyed reasonable success on third downs, as their 42.2% conversion rate (102nd) will attest. Still, the defense has been opportunistic in forcing 7 turnovers (33rd) and allowing just 1.44 points per drive (33rd).
Alabama Player to Watch on Defense: S Bray Hubbard
Bray Hubbard has emerged as a playmaker in Alabama’s secondary, totaling 17 tackles with a strong 77.3% tackle success rate and 3 havoc plays through four games. He’s shown ball-hawking ability in coverage, allowing just 3 completions on 7 targets (42.9%) for 27 yards while recording 2 interceptions and posting an elite 0.3 Defensive QBR. As a pass rusher, Hubbard generated pressure on one of his three rush attempts (33.3% rate), contributing across all three defensive phases.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Head Coach: Clark Lea
2025 Record: 5-0
Offense Ranking: 6th
Defense Ranking: 29th
Strength of Schedule: 12th
Vanderbilt’s 2025 team profile reflects a dramatic surge under Clark Lea, ranking 11th overall in SP+, with a Top 10 offense (6th) and elite special teams (4th). The offense thrives on both efficiency and explosiveness, ranking 3rd nationally in success rate and 2nd in EPA/play, while averaging 7.85 yards per play and scoring 4.18 points per drive—4th-best in the country. Defensively they’ve made notable strides, with a Top 50 unit that allows just 4.65 yards per play and ranks 28th in yards per drive allowed and is fueled by an aggressive front generating the 13th-best havoc rate nationally. At 5-0, with wins over Virginia Tech, South Carolina, and Utah State, the Commodores have a legitimate shot at 10+ wins, boasting a 33% chance to make the CFP and a 99.9% bowl probability according to SP+ analytics.
The Vanderbilt Commodores Offense
Vanderbilt’s offense has been one of the most explosive and efficient units in the country, ranking 6th in offensive SP+ and 2nd in EPA/play (0.42). The Commodores are deadly on both standard and passing downs, ranking 2nd nationally in standard down success rate (62.8%) and 1st in passing down success rate (61.7%), while also converting 60.9% of third downs (4th nationally). They’ve maintained balance with 6.7 yards per rush (5th) and 9.4 yards per dropback (9th), thanks to a strong run-blocking unit (2nd in yards before contact) and a QB corps completing 71.3% of passes (15th). The red zone execution has been surgical, converting 86.7% of red zone trips into touchdowns (3rd) and averaging 5.88 points per scoring opportunity (3rd).
Vanderbilt Player to Watch on Offense: QB Diego Pavia
Diego Pavia has continued his rise to college football stardom, completing 74.6% of his passes for 1,211 yards, 13 touchdowns, and only 3 interceptions. He ranks among the most efficient quarterbacks nationally with a stellar 10.8 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) and a 61.5% passing success rate, while taking sacks on just 2.3% of his dropbacks. On the ground, Pavia has added 302 rushing yards at 6.71 yards per carry with a 62.2% success rate and 22.9% of his rushes gaining 10+ yards.
The Vanderbilt Commodores Defense
Vanderbilt’s defense has shown a dramatic turnaround, ranking 29th in defensive SP+ and holding opponents to just 4.65 yards per play (28th nationally). The Commodores excel at disruption, generating a 20.7% overall havoc rate (13th nationally) with particularly strong production from the defensive line (7.3% DL havoc rate, 31st) and linebackers (7.7% LB havoc rate, 11th). They’re limiting opponents to just 21.6% success on passing downs (21st) and allowing only 1.56 points per drive (38th). Opponents average 10.2 yards per dropback versus zone (14th-worst)—making explosive passing its biggest vulnerability.
Vanderbilt Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Miles Capers
Outside linebacker Miles Capers has brought heat off the edge, notching 3.5 sacks, 5.0 TFLs, and 7 total havoc plays over five games while maintaining a perfect 100% tackle rate. His 71 pass rushes have yielded 8 total pressures with an 11.3% pressure rate, and he has forced a fumble and drawn two penalties along the way. Capers leads the team in sacks and ranks second in total havoc plays, showing strong timing with a Time to First Pressure of 3.39 seconds and a 13.8% third-down pressure rate. He also has contributed 5 solo tackles, 2 run stops and a pass breakup as Vandy’s primary defensive havoc maven.
Vanderbilt at Alabama team stats, betting trends
- Vanderbilt has lost 4 of its last 5 road games against teams with a winning record
- Vanderbilt has covered the Spread in 4 of its last 5 games as an underdog
- The Under is 4-1 in Vanderbilt’s last 5 road games
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Alabama’s Jam Miller UNDER 64.5 yards rushing
Jam Miller missed the previous 3 games leading up to last week’s epic tilt against Georgia where he inhaled 16 carries for 46 rushing (2.9 YPC) yards against the Dawgs. However, that usage was a massive outlier on prior DeBoer Era usage where Miller failed to clear 12 carries in all but 2 of his last 12 games. Sure, he was splitting time with Justice Haynes last year, but Kevin Riley also got 10 carries and was arguably more effective on a per carry basis. Miller only broke one tackle in 16 totes vs. UGA and had a long rush of 7 yards after missing three weeks with a collarbone injury. With a recent injury, uninspiring dominance metrics and DeBoer’s previous usage trends working against him, I’ll take Jam Miller to go Under his 64.5 Rushing Yardage mark.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Vanderbilt and Alabama:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Vanderbilt Commodores at +10.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 55.5.
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