After a 9-1 start to Bowl Season, Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his three best bets for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.
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Iowa vs Vanderbilt (-5.5): O/U 45.5
Iowa went 0-4 against ranked opponents this year, but those losses were all close! Iowa lost to #16 Iowa State (16-13), #11 Indiana (20-15), #9 Oregon (18-16), and #17 USC (26-21). All four losses came by five or fewer points and a combined 15 total points. Iowa went 8-0 against unranked opponents. Vanderbilt is ranked, has the runner-up for the Heisman at quarterback, Diego Pavia, and just missed the College Football Playoff as an SEC contender.
The biggest opt-out of the game is Eli Stowers, the Vandervilt tight end and John Mackey Award winner. Stowers led Vanderbilt in receptions (62) and yards (769), so his departure is a big deal for Diego Pavia. A difference maker for Iowa might be running back Khamari Moulton. He is from Florida and discussed what it means for Iowa to play in this bowl game — “It definitely gives me a boost of energy. And just a boost of excitement,” Moulton said. “We haven’t seen the sun in over a month in Iowa. Coming out here (are) very good vibes, I’d say. Instant warmth. It felt like you could move around again.”
Speaking of moving around, Pavia and Vanderbilt are a run-based team that thrives off run zone concepts, read options, and short-yardage situations. Iowa has not won a bowl game since 2022 and is hungry. This seems like a game won in the trenches. I like Iowa +5.5 at -115 odds down to +4.5.
Pick: Iowa +5.5 (1 unit)
Duke (-3) vs Arizona State: O/U 47.5
Duke was the unlikely winner of the ACC. The Blue Devils somehow had five losses and were a close call to make the College Football playoff, which i think rolls over and gives the Blue Devils confidence. Duke will have QB Darien Mensah under center, whIle Arizona State is without QB-WR duo of Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson, without their left tackle and No. 1 linebacker. Duke has a few injuries but limited opt-outs, but it’s not nearly as bad as Arizona State.
The Sun Devils will start backup QBs Jeff Sims or Cam Dyer in their bowl game. Mensah makes $4 million with Duke, so I would say a severe advantage goes to the Blue Devils. Sims went 3-1 as a full-time starter with three consecutive wins over Iowa State (24-19), West Virginia (25-23), and Colorado (42-17) before losing to Arizona (23-7).
I don’t think this Sun Devils team is as good as Duke, so I will take the Blue Devils. Last year, Duke lost to Ole Miss in the bowl game (52-20), but won five of the past six bowl games. Give me Duke on the ML at -146 and -155 odds. The two offenses should be night and day between Duke and Arizona State.
Pick: Duke ML (1 unit)
Ty Simpson O/U 33.3 Pass Attempts vs Indiana
It seems like everyone is lining up to take Alabama to cover and keep it close against Indiana, but as someone holding 2 units on Indiana at +600 to win the title — I am all Hoosiers baby.
I am targeting Ty Simpson‘s pass attempts prop as my best bet. Simpson tossed 34-plus passes in seven of 14 games this season, including three out of seven against ranked opponents. However, it’s do or die during the season now and Simpson will be relied heavily upon. Simpson only three the ball 29 times against Oklahoma and they were down 17-0, using a miraculous comeback.
Indiana’s defense has kept almost everyone under their averages this season and limited opposing quarterbacks. I think Simpson will have to pass 35-40 times in order to seat competitive. The Hoosiers rush defense would be too much for the Tide. I played at -105 odds at Fanatics and would shop around for the best number.
Pick: Ty Simpson 34+ Pass Attempts (2 units)
Bowl Record: 9-1 +7.95 units
Season Record: 70-80-1 -3.73 units
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