The biggest college football game of the weekend is the Top 10 Showdown between No. 10 Texas Longhorns (7-2) and No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (8-1). Each has a path to the SEC Championship Game as well as the playoff, but those dreams take a fatal hit with a loss this weekend.
Texas, fresh off a bye week, is seeking revenge for two losses to Georgia last season, including the SEC Championship game. It is the Longhorns’ first-ever trip to Athens.
QB Arch Manning has gotten better by the week under center for the Longhorns. He will be attacking what has been at times a vulnerable Georgia secondary. The Bulldogs’ Gunner Stockton leads an offense that has routinely started slowly this season but has been extremely efficient in the second half of games.
Matchup to Watch: Texas’ run defense vs. Georgia’s potent ground game
Lets take a closer look at each school, highlight a few key players, and see what the numbers tell us.
Game Details and How to Watch No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia
- Date: Saturday, November 15, 2025
- Time: 7:30PM Eastern
- Site: Sanford Stadium
- City: Atlanta, GA
- TV/Streaming: ABC
Game Odds for No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Georgia Bulldogs (-225), Texas Longhorns (+185)
- Spread: Georgia -6 (-105)
- Total: 48.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Texas Longhorns
Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian
2025 Record: 7-2
Offense Ranking: 44
Defense Ranking: 7
Strength of Schedule: 9
Texas has leaned on an elite defense (7th in FBS) to power a 7-2 start, despite an underwhelming offense that ranks just 44th in SP+ and 93rd in success rate. The Longhorns have been wildly inefficient on standard downs (102nd SD success rate) and struggle to stay on schedule but generate enough explosive plays (28th marginal explosiveness) to overcome those lulls at times. Steve Sarkisian’s defense excels on the ground (8th in rushing success rate allowed, 2nd in EPA/rush) and creates negative plays (25th in havoc rate), with linebackers delivering the most disruption (2nd in LB havoc rate nationally). Texas has a slim margin for error with red zone struggles (81st in red zone TD rate), inconsistent 3rd-down offense (67th), and an anemic fourth-down conversion rate (116th), leaving them vulnerable in tight games despite their impressive overall talent profile.
The Texas Longhorns Offense
Texas’ offense has been middling in 2025, ranking just 44th in SP+ and 93rd in success rate (40.8%). They struggle to stay ahead of the chains ranking 95th down set conversion rate and 109th in percentage of plays gaining zero or negative yards. The rushing attack has been particularly inefficient, sitting 88th in success rate, 99th in yards per carry (4.5), and a dismal 21% stuff rate (108th) with the OL failing to create lanes (101st in yards before contact). Despite these issues, the passing game does generate chunk gains when it connects, ranking 11th in yards per successful dropback (17.2) and 53rd in ANY/A. However, it leans heavily on short and intermediate throws ranking 25th nationally in passes targeted at or behind the line of scrimmage. Red zone efficiency is also a sore spot (81st in red zone TD rate), and the Longhorns are one of the worst fourth-down teams in the country (116th conversion rate), limiting their scoring potential in high-leverage spots.
Texas Player to Watch on Offense: QB Arch Manning
Arch Manning has delivered an up-and-down campaign, completing 62.7% of his passes for 2,123 yards with an 18-to-6 TD/INT ratio and 8.5 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A). He’s proven most dangerous pushing the ball downfield, leading the team with a stellar 91.5 PFF grade on deep throws (20+ yards) while tossing 8 touchdowns at an eye-popping 16.5 YPA. However, his passing success rate sits at just 40.7%, with nearly 16% of dropbacks resulting in a sack or pressure due to a combination of protection lapses and holding the ball too long. Manning has added meaningful value as a runner, gaining 308 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground at 6.04 yards per carry with a 51.0% rushing success rate—demonstrating his ability to generate offense with his legs when the play breaks down.
The Texas Longhorns Defense
Texas’ defense has been the backbone of the team in 2025, ranking 7th in SP+ and 10th in points allowed per drive (1.30), with elite marks in success rate (21st), yards per play allowed (17th), and EPA/play (-0.10, 16th). The Longhorns are suffocating on the ground, sitting Top 10 in rushing success rate allowed (9th), yards per carry allowed (8th), and yards before contact (7th), thanks largely to a hyperactive linebacker unit that ranks top-3 nationally in LB havoc rate (10.6%). The UT pass rush ranks just 7th in sack rate per dropback with minimal blitzing (91st in blitz rate), while the secondary limits explosive plays pretty well allowing a 13.1% completion rate on passes of 20+ yards (35th nationally). Fourth-down defense has also been stellar, holding opponents to just 31.8% conversions (7th), while the unit’s +8 turnover margin (10th) and stout red zone efficiency (15th in points per scoring opportunity) underscore its ability to hold firm under pressure.
Texas Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Collin Simmons
Colin Simmons has been Texas’ most disruptive front-seven force, racking up 8.0 sacks and 35 total pressures across 198 pass-rush snaps for a strong 17.7% pressure rate. The true freshman edge rusher has created 6 sacks and drawn 30 first pressures, ranking Top 3 on the team in both metrics while forcing 2 fumbles. Simmons’ ability to convert pressure into production shows in his 2.74-second time-to-first-pressure and team-high 20.3% pressure rate on third down. In run defense, he’s added 38 tackles (20 solo), 9.5 TFLs, and 3 run stops, rounding out a complete havoc profile.
Georgia Bulldogs
Head Coach: Kirby Smart
2025 Record: 8-1
Offense Ranking: 14
Defense Ranking: 15
Strength of Schedule: 14
Georgia enters Week 12 at 8-1 (6-1 SEC) with a No. 10 SP+ ranking and legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations (78.3% odds), but their underlying metrics suggest this team isn’t quite on par with Kirby Smart’s prior juggernauts. Offensively, the Bulldogs are built on efficiency with a 48.6% success rate (17th), 68.4% comp rate (16th) and 56.1% standard downs success rate (8th). However, the Dawgs also rank just 106th in explosiveness and rarely challenge defenses vertically, with the 127th-ranked air yards per completion average and just 27.2% of targets going to outside receivers. Defensively, Georgia has been solid against the run (3rd YPC allowed), but lacks disruption (126th in Havoc Rate, 131st in DL Havoc) and struggles in pass rush efficiency, ranking 123rd in sacks per dropback. Despite elite special teams (No. 1 SP+), their -2 turnover margin and a slightly overinflated 13.7 PPG scoring margin vs. a 14.4 SP+ projection hint at a team that may be a touch overvalued.
The Georgia Bulldogs Offense
Georgia’s offense ranks 14th in SP+ and thrives on precision and efficiency, boasting a 68.4% completion rate (16th) and a 49.1% passing success rate (17th). They are methodical rather than explosive, ranking 117th in yards per successful play and 127th in air yards per completion, with an exceptionally high 35.9% of throws coming behind the line of scrimmage (4th nationally). The run game is competent but not overpowering (4.9 YPC, 61st), with most yardage coming after contact, while the offensive line has been spotty in pass protection (2.2% pressure rate, 46th). Their red zone execution is a strength (75.7% TD rate, 8th), allowing UGA to consistently finish drives despite limited big-play production.
Georgia Player to Watch on Offense: QB Gunner Stockton
Gunner Stockton has settled in as a credible dual-threat SEC quarterback, completing 69.4% of his passes for 2,040 yards with a sterling 15-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio and 89.4 Total QBR. He stretches the field with an 11.4 yards-per-completion average and a 9.0 adjusted net yards per attempt, while posting a strong 51.6% success rate and avoiding sacks on all but 3.7% of dropbacks. On the ground, Stockton complements his passing with 350 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns on 67 carries, boasting a 53.7% success rate and a healthy 15.6% explosive run rate. His dual-threat capabilities have made him the engine of Georgia’s offense.
The Georgia Bulldogs Defense
Georgia’s defense, ranked 15th in SP+, remains fundamentally sound but less dominant than in recent seasons, thriving more on discipline than disruption. The Bulldogs are stingy against the run—allowing just 3.4 yards per carry (3rd nationally) and ranking 17th in rushing success rate allowed—but their pass rush has regressed, sitting 124th in sack-to-pressure rate. Their overall Havoc Rate (11.7%, 126th) and near-bottom defensive line Havoc (1.8%, 131st) highlight a unit that bends but rarely creates negative plays. Still, Georgia’s tackling efficiency (88.9%, 13th) keeps opponents in check, forcing long, inefficient drives.
Georgia Player to Watch on Defense: LB CJ Allen
CJ Allen has been a major havoc creator for Georgia’s defense, leading the team with 72 total tackles and producing a team-high 10 havoc plays, including 4.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks. He has been a reliable run defender with a strong 92.3% tackle success rate. As a blitzer, Allen generated 6 pressures and 3 sacks on 49 pass rushes (12.2% pressure rate), while being credited with 3 sacks created and 9 first pressures. He’s also shown some playmaking ability in coverage with 3 pass breakups and forced 2 fumbles, underscoring his all-around solidifying presence in the middle of the defense.
Texas and Georgia team stats, betting trends
- Georgia has won 17 of its last 20 games as the favorite
- Georgia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as the favorite
- The OVER is 7-3 in Georgia’s last 10 home games
- Texas is 2-6-1 ATS overall this season
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Ryan Wingo OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards
Georgia’s ability to stop the run is well established, ranking 3rd in yards per successful rush allowed and 16th in EPA/rush. However, their pass defense is clearly the more beatable aspect of the Dawgs D, ranking 73rd in passing success rate and 87th in EPA/dropbacck. Texas’ maligned pass offense behind uber-prospect Arch Manning has perked up lately, accruing 346 rushing yards at Mississippi State and 328 last week vs. Vanderbilt. WR Ryan Wingo has come along for the ride, exploding for 184 yards against Miss State and 89 yards in limited snaps last week. Wingo is practicing in full after the Week 11 Bye and will reprise his role as the primary receiving weapon for the Longhorns. I like Wingo’s Over 44.5 Receiving Yards line and would consider sprinkling on the ALT offerings.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Texas and Georgia
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Texas Longhorns at +6.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the UNDER on the Game Total of 48.5.
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