The Big Ten season is underway for the #13 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0) and Matt Campbell as they host the Wisconsin Badgers (2-1) on Peacock Saturday at 5 PM Eastern in Happy Valley. Penn State is a -10 point favorite with a game total of 43.5. The game total is the second-lowest of the weekend behind #17 Iowa at #18 Michigan.
Penn State has won three-straight to start the season over Marshall (45-0), Temple (27-9), and Buffalo (55-13). The Nittany Lions have held those three to 22 points and 201.0 yards per game, which ranks third nationally. This will be Campbell and Penn State’s first test this season, plus the first game versus a P4 team. Rocco Becht has slid into Penn State smoothly with nine touchdowns to no interceptions, plus four different running backs have received at least 20 carries through three games. Penn State will attempt to control their time of possession and I’d expect both teams to be run-heavy.
After suffering a Week 1 loss at Lambeau Field to Notre Dame (41-10), Wisconsin has bounced back with 36-9 and 54-10 wins over Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan. That’s 100 combined points as the Badgers put up 406 and 479 total yards of offense. Last season, Wisconsin opened Big Ten play with five-straight losses, so going to Happy Valley will be a daunting task. However, this team looks more confident with Colton Joseph (834 yards, 6 TDs, 2 INT) at quarterback and has good run blocking grades. If their committee of backs can get going, then Wisconsin may find life this season and fight for bowl eligibility.
Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.
Game Details and How to Watch Wisconsin vs Penn State
- Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
- Time: 5:00 PM Eastern
- Beaver Stadium
- City: University Park, PA
- TV/Streaming: Peacock
Game Odds for Wisconsin vs Penn State
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Penn State Nittany Lions (-380), Wisconsin Badgers (+300)
- Spread: Penn State -10 (-112)
- Total: 44.5 points
Wisconsin Badgers
Head Coach: Luke Fickell
2026 Record: 2-1 (0-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 33.5 (34th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 25.5 (T-64th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 20th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 47th
The Wisconsin Badgers Offense:
The Wisconsin offense is fresh off 100 combined points in the last two games following 13 points versus Notre Dame. Per PFF, Wisconsin’s passing attack and pass blocking rank outside the top 100, as does their rush success. A lot of what goes right depends on Colton Joseph and whether or not he has time to throw. He was sacked twice against Notre Dame and pressured on a handful of drop backs, but that wasn’t the case the last two weeks against Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan. Joseph will be thrown back into the fire this week and I’d expect Penn State’s defense to disguise their blitzes as much as possible on obvious passing downs.
Wisconsin Player to Watch on Offense: QB Colton Joseph
I made a wild statement prior to the season that Colton Joseph could be the best quarterback that Wisconsin has had since Russell Wilson. Well, Joseph is certainly an upgrade over last season and the fact he’s thrown for 362 yards and total four touchdowns in the last game is a positive sign. Joseph went 19-of-30 against Notre Dame for 217 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in Week 1. A stat line like that at Penn State wouldn’t be too bad. but it won’t earn you DangerRuss status.
The Wisconsin Badgers Defense:
Wisconsin has a top 50 defense through three games and some could argue it would fall into the 25-40 range. Wisconsin held Notre Dame to 13 points in the first half before the Irish blew the door open in the second half, then the Badgers allowed 19 points total in the last two games. The Badgers defense had two nice tuneup games and will try to carry that over here because one sack and one tackle for loss like they did versus Notre Dame just isn’t cutting it.
Wisconsin Player to Watch on Defense: LB Mason Poa
Mason Poa started off the season with a 15-tackle performance against Notre Dame before quietly putting up four tackles across the next two games. Well, Poa will be involved heavily in the game plan to slow down the Penn State running back committee, plus spy on the veteran QB Rocco Becht. It’s worth noting, Poa grabbed his first career interception last week against Eastern Michigan and returned it 24 yards before going down and celebrating. There’s All-Big Ten potential with Poa.
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Penn State Nittany Lions
Head Coach: Matt Campbell
2026 Record: 3-0
Offensive Points Per Game: 42.3 (11th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 7.3 (4th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 125th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 57th
The Penn State Nittany Lions Offense:
Penn State has put up 487, 416, and 573 yards of offense through three games. The Matt Campbell offense has cooked and everyone’s had a taste. Five different players have scored a rushing touchdown and six have caught a touchdown so far. Koby Howard has been the undoubted No. 1 WR catching 12 passes for 344 yards and two scores, plus a rushing touchdown. Howard is a big play waiting to happen with longs of 42, 56, and 70 yards so far.
Penn State Player to Watch on Offense: QB Rocco Becht
Rocco Becht has a 9:0 TD to INT ratio through three games with Penn State and 751 passing yards on 45-of-64 (70.3%). Last year, Becht had a 16:9 ratio, a 60.5 completion percentage, and eight rushing touchdowns with Iowa State. With Penn State, Becht hasn’t used his legs at all posting -1 yard on 10 carries with three being sacks (no scores). I’d expect Becht to use his legs more in Big Ten competition and he could be a sneaky bet for an anytime touchdown scorer.
The Penn State Nittany Lions Defense:
With 22 points allowed in three games, Penn State ranks atop of a lot of lists regarding the best defenses. However, it’s fair to state the competition they’ve faced this far (Marshall, Temple, Buffalo) isn’t up to par to be granting that type of justification. Penn State has forced five turnovers, at least one in each game, and the offense hasn’t turned the ball over yet. Penn State’s allowed 38 first downs through three games and no one has reached 15 and the Nittany Lions have the second-best third-down defense in the country at 15.3%!
Penn State Player to Watch on Defense: LB Tony Rojas
Tony Rojas is in his fourth season with Penn State and appears good to surpass all his career-highs. Rojas put up 58 tackles and three interceptions in 2024, two sacks in 2025, and his only forced fumble in 2023. This season, Rojas has 16 tackles, one sack and one interception through three games. He had seven tackles versus Marshall and Temple, leading the team in tackles both games. Rojas recorded his sack versus the Herd, and pick against the Owls. I’d expect Rojas to be one of the most active hitters on Saturday.
Wisconsin and Penn State Stats, Betting Trends
- Penn State is 2-1 ATS and 2-1 to the Under
- Wisconsin is 1-2 ATS and 2-1 to the Over
- Penn State is 2-0 ATS at home this season and 1-1 on the total
- Penn State was 2-5 ATS at home last year and 4-3 to the Over
- Wisconsin was 4-1 to the Under on the road last year and 3-2 ATS
- Wisconsin is 4-5 ATS in the last nine games as a road underdog and 6-3 to the Over
- Penn State is 10-7 to the Under since 2024 at home and 23-15 to the Under since 2021
- Penn State is 19-14 to the Under since 2021 as a home favorite
Rotoworld Best Bets
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans the Under in a battle of strong defenses:
“I don’t believe in the Wisconsin or Penn State run games, nor do I believe in either team lighting it up through the air here. I’d argue both defenses have pretty strong matchups and can limit the opposing attacks. With the second-lowest game total of the week, I agree that first to 20 points wins this game and getting there could be a struggle. Penn State hasn’t played anybody in the P4 yet and Wisconsin’s 100 points in the last two games is not an indictment of who they are. I would have to go Under 43.5 points.”
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