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The runaway winner is no more as overnight leader Seamus Power (-12) retreated at Monterey Peninsula on Saturday. To the tune of 3-over 74, the Irishman found issues off-the-tee and struggled mightily with the putter in hand. While not out of contention, his play in the third-round has swung the door wide open as numerous players on Pebble Beach Golf Links climbed their way back into the tournament.
Namely Jordan Spieth (-14) who began the day 11-strokes off the pace and as long as +8000 at PointsBet Sportsbook. The 2017 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am winner would not only start fast, but would finish even faster.
Converting birdie opportunities on his opening two holes, the Texan arrived to the par-5 sixth at 7-under for the tournament. Hitting his approach shot inside of 5-feet, Spieth nonchalantly walked in his eagle-3 as the return of “Spieth Saturdays” appeared imminent.
Skirting a near penalty and near death at the par-4 eighth, Spieth would make a momentum saving par before tacking on another birdie at the ninth to turn in 5-under 31. Stalling in the beginning of his back-nine, the 28-year-old showed some resolve and birdied four of his last five-holes to card a 9-under 63.
A year removed from possessing the 54-hole lead, Spieth – along with Patrick Cantlay and Joel Dahmen at 14-under – will now play from behind. Admitting to have been tentative in the final round of the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he spoke to his strategy heading into tomorrow’s final round.
Saying, “I think not being in the final group I just kind of approach it like today where I feel like, you know, sometimes it can be a little easier not in the final group to go ahead and fire away. You almost just set a goal for a number for the day and pretend you got to get there in order to win. So, we’ll just kind of see where the pins are and adjust on the range”
The trio, along with Power, will need to hunt down the three at 15-under in Tom Hoge, Andrew Putnam, and Beau Hossler. With only one victory between the men who share the lead, there could be a path to victory for one of the four from the chasing pack.
For better or for worse, we will hope for some struggles from those at 15-under as Dahmen remains our only outright hope. Shame on me for writing him off yesterday evening as he put together another bogey-free effort, this time signing for a 6-under 66 at Spyglass Hill. I do not love the fact he is paired with Spieth tomorrow, but he does lead the field in Greens in Regulation and if the putter can cooperate for 18-holes, he should be right there come crunch time.
As for our Round 3, J.J. Spaun righted the wrongs of Ryan Palmer and Nick Taylor from the day before, getting us on the board for our in-play wagers. Getting the better of Kevin Kisner by eight-strokes, we will attempt to keep the momentum rolling into Sunday.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
+300: Patrick Cantlay
+400: Jordan Spieth
+450: Tom Hoge
+700: Andrew Putnam
+900: Beau Hossler, Joel Dahmen
+1100: Seamus Power
+3300: Jason Day
+8000: Denny McCarthy
+12500: Matthew Fitzpatrick
+20000: Dylan Frittelli, Greyson Sigg
+25000: Troy Merritt
+30000: Keith Mitchell
+40000: Pat Perez
Round 4 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet):
Keith Mitchell +165 over Satoshi Kodaira and Troy Merritt (1.00 unit):
Mitchell on poa annua is always a tough sell, but after seeing him find some form yesterday on the greens, this makes for an easy investment. I have been smitten with the former Georgia Bulldog for quite some time now and despite burning me at Torrey Pines, I will look in his direction for the final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Carding a 4-under 68 on Saturday, Mitchell ranked inside the top-20 in each strokes-gained metric with the exception of around-the-green. Greenside in two on the par-5 second and the 30-year-old’s biggest mistake of the day came when he failed to get up-and-down, twice, thus making bogey on the second easiest hole.
Now on Pebble Beach for the second consecutive day, Mitchell will have no need to adapt once again to the speed of the greens. As Kodaira and Merritt will as they come off rounds of even-par 71 and 1-under 70 at Monterey Peninsula. While it may not seem like much, we have seen differences in the speed of the greens this week and for the purposes of a single round, the adjustment period the two may require may very well prove to be the difference maker.
Betting Note: Sitting five-strokes adrift at 10-under, I have also added 0.11 units on Mitchell outright at +30000 on the off chance those at 14-under or better struggle.
2/3-Balls YTD: -2.50 units, -13.43%
Total YTD: +49.09 units, +141.63%
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