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Finally, our last week of a multiple-course rotation as the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will feature Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill, and the Shore Course at Monterey Peninsula. Longing for the days of TPC Scottsdale, this will mark the third consecutive week in which the first-round leader market will be divided based on course.
During this time, we have seen the tournament-favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook, Patrick Cantlay, sign for a 10-under 62 and world No. 1 Jon Rahm card a 6-under 66 on the difficult Torrey Pines South. With the American headlining the field this week in California, we will do our best to avoid him and the other big names.
With this logic, the easy omission for Thursday is Monterey Peninsula as Cantlay, Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Cameron Tringale, and Maverick McNealy will be playing the par-71. With a bit more information on Pebble Beach and a bit less firepower taking to it in Round 1, that will be our target course for first-round selections.
A short par-72, the name of the game is rather simple. Keep the ball in play, dial in those wedge shots, take advantage of the par-5s, and pray to our Lord and Savior the bumpy poa annua bounces our way. With only one-third of the field to choose from, there are a few players farther down the odds board who have grabbed my attention.
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First-Round Leader Selections:
Chase Seiffert +6600 at BetMGM (0.30 units)
We have not seen the 30-year-old since the Sony Open where he missed the cut on the number. However, rewind to 2021 and Seiffert was putting together a strong start to his PGA Tour season. A T-51 at the Fortinet Championship was followed up with a T-22 at the Bermuda Championship despite being on the wrong side of the draw.
One of the more accurate drivers of the golf ball, Seiffert has a way of elevating his game when on shorter courses. Specifically with his wedge play as it has seen in uptick in precision on the likes of Waialae Country Club, Sedgefield Country Club, and TPC River Highlands.
Hailing from Florida and playing his college golf at Florida State, it was hard for me to believe Seiffert’s putting splits. Assuming Bermuda was his grass of choice, Seiffert actually does his best work on poa annua. Converting his scoring opportunities at an efficient rate – and even more so on poa annua – if able to avoid the big number, he should threaten the Round 1 leaderboard.
Chesson Hadley +6600 at BetMGM (0.30 units)
Hadley was a player we went to last week and it does not feel right to snap off the bandwagon quite yet. The par-5 scoring over his past four first-rounds has been terrific as he has consistently taken advantage of those holes when presented to him.
Combine this with a rise in ball-striking in Round 1 alone and this makes me willing to omit last week’s performance at Torrey Pines North. With some of his Thursday approach figures this season reading +1.7, +1.6, and +3.2 SG: Approach, Hadley will simply need to clean up the occasional loose wedge shot for our purposes.
One of the best putters in the field, we have seen him post positive strokes-gained figures in five consecutive first-rounds. Despite not being his best surface, he still rates out well on poa annua and has the profile we are looking for in Round 1.
Sean O’Hair +8000 at BetRivers (0.25 units)
O’Hair may be a bit of a forgotten name these days, but not in our neck of the woods. Having had some exposure to him in the Bermuda Championship, I vividly remember him becoming the first-round favorite before sputtering on the inward-half.
He has since struggled in The Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour, but a return to a familiar setting should bring fond memories. As this will be his 16th AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am appearance, making the cut in 11 of his last 12 showings. Clearly comfortable on the coast of California, O’Hair’s accuracy off-the-tee, touch from around-the-greens, and poa annua prowess is well-suited for the Pebble Beach test.
While he checks many of the boxes we are looking for, the 39-year-old will need to experience a strong round with his wedge play. Consistently peppering Greens in Regulation, his proximity is a bit volatility, so hopefully the small greens of Pebble will bring O’Hair a heightened focus with a wedge in hand.
First-Round Leaders YTD: -3.90 units, -100.00%
Total YTD: +50.55 units, +164.09%
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