The year of the chalk continued with the odds on +800 favorite Rory McIlroy winning the CJ Cup. That win catapulted McIlroy back to the No. 1 golfer in the world, making that the ninth time he’s been ranked No. 1 in the world. With the form he’s in and the strength of this week’s field, he would probably be close to +300 to win this week. However, this event is generally reserved for the aging PGA Tour grinders and the young, unestablished gunslingers. Historically, I’ve struggled to peg the winner at this event. In the three iterations of this event, I have blanked on my handicap, predicting a winner. Much like Thomas the Tank Engine, I’m going to keep grinding, trust the data and pick a few outright golfers whom I see having value.
We are headed to Port Royal Golf Course this week for the Bermuda Championship. The Robert Trent Jones-designed course is just 6,828 yards and is heavily protected by 88 bunkers. With wind in the forecast, weather stacks might have an advantage this week. Paying close attention to AM/PM tee times could be beneficial when betting. The tee times will be released on Wednesday, but using the key metrics below, here are the first set of golfers I am betting on:
Key Metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Total
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Scrambling
- Par 4: 400-450
Nick Hardy to Win +3500:
Hardy isn’t a household name just yet. However, he’s a guy who should get consideration to win this week. His biggest strength which makes him a must-play for me is his excellent iron play. If this course plays as a second-shot course, it’s hard not to love Hardy. He first in SG: Approach over the past two months. While it’s not a metric that I’m overly concerned with measuring, he’s first in SG: Tee-to-Green. He’s doing everything right until he gets to the dance floor. If he can put together a good putting tournament, his hard work will pay off. Sanderson Farms, he was able to gain strokes putting, which was good for a T5 finish. Replicate that putting performance or improve on it; it could be the win he’s been chasing.
Denny McCarthy to Win +1800:
From a talent standpoint, McCarthy is the best golfer in the field. Should he be anything lower than +1800? Probably not. It’s not because McCarthy can’t win this; it’s just hard to price him that low, given his start to the season. His last top-10 finish was back at the John Deere. His CJ Cup 37th is almost forgivable. A normally very solid putter, he lost strokes at both Shriners and the CJ Cup. He fixes those issues and is a worthy favorite to win this event. Unlike Congaree, Port Royal will not punish his lack of length off the tee. It gives me more confidence in backing a guy who is a great putter, accurate off the tee, and can scramble with the best of them. He has a T4 and T15 finish here in 2021 and 2020. His price is justified, and I don’t mind betting it.
Thomas Detry to Win +2900:
When searching for pricing for this event, I assumed the price for Detry would be closer to that of McCarthy. I was surprised to see him priced at +2900. When Detry picks up his first PGA Tour victory, I hope I am betting on him. Does this course set up for his strengths? Maybe. However, it’s hard for me to pass him up, given his current form. Outside of his 69th-place finish at Shriners, he’s had a successful last few months. He had a few top-10 finishes and a couple of 36-hole leads. Detry is long off the tee, which should help him should he have to club down. He’s used to playing at coastal courses, and he’s a great putter. DFS pricing is not always correlated, but it’s nice to see that he’s the most expensive golfer on DraftKings, yet he’s still priced as a second-tier golfer in the outright market.
Robby Shelton to Win +4000:
Without getting overly excited about the top guy in SG: Tot, I was pretty excited to see the price associated with him. If I needed more clarity, Shelton is number one in SG: Tot over the last 36 measured rounds. He was a KFT superstar late in the season and has had a fine start to the season with a T21 at the Fortinet and a T15 at the Shriners. He won’t be overly penalized for his lack of length off the tee, but he should be rewarded with his superior driving accuracy. He’s a proven winner; at a course like this with a weaker field, I want guys who are used to the podium. His taste of victory, more recent than most here, excites me, and his price is very playable.