After a fantastic three-hole playoff at the St. Jude Championship, which saw Will Zalatoris pick up his first win with a defeat over Sepp Straka, the FedEx Cup continues, and the PGA Tour cuts the field down to the top 70 golfers. The next stop for the FedEx Cup Playoffs is Wilmington Country Club for the BMW Championship. This will be the first time a PGA Tour event is hosted here, but not the first major event. Wilmington Country Club has hosted the Junior, Women’s, and Men’s U.S. Amateur events. They also hosted the Palmer Cup in 2013, which saw the United States team led by Justin Thomas defeat the European team.
With this being the first PGA Tour hosted here, there isn’t any tournament history or past data for modeling. I have used current form and course knowledge to determine who I will be backing this week. Despite picking Will Zalatoris to win last week, picking the outright winner of a playoff event is difficult. It will be increasingly more difficult as we progress through the playoffs to pick winners, and the odds will almost get to unplayable levels. Nonetheless, I have found a few outright picks that I see having value this week. The odds can be found on PointsBet Sportsbook:
Matthew Fitzpatrick to win +1600
After watching a course flyover video, I saw the tough-to-hit fairways, thick rough, and a ton of bunkers; I thought of one of my favorite Englishmen, Fitzpatrick. While the courses have distinct differences, they share the tight fairways and green, which are heavily protected by bunkers. The course similarities are what have me excited about backing Fitzpatrick this week.
Fitzpatrick seems to be a mainstay in the top 20 regardless of the course he’s on. He seems to excel when he plays courses that require accuracy off the tee. He’s hitting fairways at a 64% clip and seemed to have added a few yards to his average drive. The course isn’t overly long, but his newly found driving power should help him this week. He’s also one of the best in the field at sand saves, and his putting has been good. He doesn’t three-putt often, which will be necessary with the greens being so massive here.
His odds are slightly shorter than I’d like, but he’s my top course fit. I will back him with confidence.
Tony Finau to win +1400
I was close to backing Finau last week. He will be first on most of the models you can run. It’s because he’s been playing lights out. He’s fired off 18 straight sub-70 rounds. This dates back to Sunday at St. Andrews. While I wouldn’t consider him the best course fit, it’s hard not to want to back someone whose game is on point. Finau was always seen as one of those golfers who would win in bunches after he picked up another win. His newfound putting dominance has supported his recent run. There’s nothing more dangerous than a great ball striker who is confident with their putter. I said this when referencing Zalatoris, but the same applies to Finau.
Finau has been gaining strokes all over the place and drastically improved his putting. There’s no way I’m missing out on Finau winning the BMW.
Collin Morikawa to win +2200
It’s been quite some time since I’ve been on Morikawa pretournament. I’ve avoided him anywhere, putting weaknesses are magnified. Morikawa is a terrible putter; for some reason, he switched his putting grip mid-tournament last week. The move was interesting because he gained +3.7 strokes putting in rounds 1 and 2 but lost -1.1 strokes in rounds 3 and 4 after the decision to make the change. Regardless of his lack of confidence, he should still play well this week. Morikawa is a great ball striker who gains a lot of strokes on approach. He’s a scrappy golfer around the greens; if his irons are dialed in, he has a great chance to be competitive this weekend. His price is also excellent; I’d imagine he will be around +1600 after the first round.
Sam Burns to win +2200
Burns was a popular pick heading into St. Jude. For a good reason, it’s hard to find holes in his game. Yet, he hasn’t faired better than a 20th-place finish in his last five events. Despite his recent run of subpar golf, I’m okay with backing him this week. Burns is the kind of golfer who could either have an amazing week off the tee or one he wishes to forget about. For what it’s worth, he’s done very well off the tee in his last few events, and I expect him to continue that again this week.
Looking at Burn’s game, it’s hard to find holes that make me not like him this week. With Cameron Smith out this week, he’s probably the best putter in the field. He’s a brilliant ball-striker who gains a ton of stroke on approach. Big greens mean you’ll likely have a ton of putts over 25 feet, and Burns is solid at lag putting. He’s long enough off the tee where the distance at the course won’t be an issue, and he’s a proven winner. Back burns at these odds.
Cam Davis to win +7000
When I mapped out golfers who would interest me this week, I thought Davis would be a good option. He or McCarthy. Before looking at the odds, I knew that I liked Davis more. It was a pleasant surprise to see Davis at +7000. I was under the assumption that he would land somewhere around +5000.
Davis is coming off an up and down performance at TPC Southwind. He couldn’t get anything going in the second round, and his 71 basically took him out of contention. He did rally in his next two rounds with a 67 and 66. He’s not the most accurate off the tee, but he’s excellent at hitting GIR and has become an excellent putter. Coming off four straight top 20 finishes and a tournament where he didn’t lose strokes tee-to-green provides some hope that we can cash this big price. Maybe he can honor his fellow Aussie who was forced to withdraw due to injury and take home the BMW Championship.
