The DP World Tour heads to Virginia Water, Surrey, for their flagship tournament, the BMW PGA Championship. With the event now taking place in early September and not having to compete with any of the PGA Tour events, they can attract marquee names from both the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour. Golfers such as Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Matthew Fitzpatrick are in the field and slated to tee it up this week. The biggest storyline early in the week is the nearly 20 LIV Tour golfers in the field due to their top-60 ranking exemption. While golfers like McIlroy have expressed their discomfort with those golfers playing alongside them, the DP World Tour has yet to determine if such golfers’ groups will be isolated from others. Regardless of which side you stand on, it’s very nice to have a stacked field with some of the World’s best golfers.
What we know about Wentworth Club’s West Course is that it’s a 7,267-yard par-72 course that features tight fairways and small greens. With moisture in the forecast, the course is expected to soften, and the players can attack the pins. It can be bested by both long hitters because they can attack the short par 5s, but also club down and play more conservatively on the par 4s and by the accurate drivers of the ball because driver can be played on every hole. Here are the key metrics I used when determining which golfers I am betting on PointsBet Sportsbook this week:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-tee
- SG: Approach
- SG: Ball-striking
- SG: Putting
Matt Fitzpatrick to win +1000
The short prices this week are terrifying. Every part of me thinks one of the big three (McIlroy, Rahm, Fitzpatrick) will win. McIlroy is +550, and Rahm is +800; both are numbers I can’t get behind. If I were to find a knock on either, it would have to be McIlroys possible distraction with the LIV golfers in the field and Rahm’s lackluster putting.
That pivots me to the third golfer in the big three and at a much more desirable price, Fitzpatrick. While the US Open Champion hasn’t found much success in winning on the PGA Tour, he has been a constant on the DP World Tour. With eight wins, his success in Europe shouldn’t go unnoticed.
When looking at key metrics, Fitzpatrick is gaining +0.6 strokes off-the-tee per round, and he’s gained a few yards on his drives. He’s a good ball-striker who hits a ton of greens in regulation, and when he’s hot with his putter, he’s almost unstoppable.
It’s a solid course for a good driver of the ball, and that is precisely what Fitzpatrick is.
Viktor Hovland to win +1800
Backing Hovland early in the DP World Tour season should be nearly automatic. While he struggled to win on the PGA Tour last season, he racked up a T4 at the Abu Dhabi Championship and a win at the Dubai Desert Classic. That success came after his brilliant victory at the Hero World Challenge. He’s had a few weeks to shake off the dust from his disappointing finish at the Open and his lackluster performance at East Lake.
While looking at this course, I started to think of golfers that have the chance to go super low, and Hovland’s name was right at the top. He’s one of the more accurate drivers; even during his slump, he’s one of the best ball strikers in the world.
His putter isn’t particularly his strong suit, but with the small soft greens, it plays into the hands of the great ball strikers. The goal is to put it close to the pin so you don’t have to read a 25-ft putt. It’s much easier to make birdie when you’re three feet away versus 25 feet.
With his pinpoint driving accuracy and great ball-striking, he’s always worth a bet at a course that could feature as a ball-strikers paradise.
Tyrrell Hatton to win +2600
The early bird gets the worm. The price on Hatton has plummeted on me, but it’s still in a playable range. Hatton won here in 2020, and he’s in fine form. The Englishman has six DP World Tour wins, with his most recent coming back in 2021. From the beginning of his season to the middle, he struggled. He wasn’t hitting the ball well and wayward off the tee. He then showed glimpses of something special as the season progressed and played very well when he went back to European for the Scottish Open and The Open Championship.
For Hatton to win this week, he must remain disciplined with his driver. With his length off the tee. With his course history and a recent blazing hot putter, he’s a must-play this week.
Thomas Pieters to win +4000
There are many talents in this field. Much of which will go unnoticed due to the lack of a big brand on the PGA Tour. One of those guys is Pieters. Outside of his 27th place finish at the US Open, he didn’t have much success this season on the PGA Tour. On the European Tour, he finished with one win in 2022 and a handful of top 10 finishes.
Looking at the key metrics for every DP World Tour golfer, Pieters is fourth in SG: OTT with +.90 strokes per round. He’s eighth in SG: App, gaining +0.7 strokes per round and hitting over 68% of GIR. While he wasn’t spectacular putting, finishing 26th in SG: P, he still gained +0.43 strokes per round.
He’s a must-play at this price.
Thomas Detry to win +10000
Detry is my longshot of the week. If you want a guy at a very high price with the game to be competitive at this course, look no further than Detry. Detry is a golfer who will break his maiden sooner or later. He’s one of Europe’s best in SG: OTT, and he’s a solid ball striker. He doesn’t have enough flaws in his game to justify him being this high of a price. He hits a bunch of greens in regulation and is a solid putter. With the soft greens this week, it’s important to chase the birdie getters, and Detry is just that.
