We’re just one day away from one of the more exciting tournaments on the PGA Tour. Golfers will tee it up this week at TPC Scottsdale for the Phoenix Open. If you visit the NBC Sports Edge page, you will find my favorite outright bets for the week. With so much talent in this field, pricing in the derivative is favorable. Look at my favorite placement bets this week:
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PHOENIX OPEN PLACEMENT BETS:
JT Poston Top 30 +160 & Top 40 +110
Of the golfers who have plus odds for them to finish inside the top 40, J.T. Poston is the one I’m the most excited about. The once-volatile Poston seems to have reined it in a bit and is playing very great golf. He’s made the cut in all three tournaments in 2023, with his worst finish being a T21. In that span, he’s gained +24.41 strokes total and looks like a man in control of his game. Poston plays well at TPC Scottsdale. He’s finished in the top 40 in his four trips here.
Poston sometimes struggles off the tee. He’s only hitting fairways at a 61% clip, but this year, the rough has been cut down to 2”. Missing fairways shouldn’t be overly penal, and Poston will continue to gain a ton of strokes on approach.
Tony Finau Top 20 -120
I often shy away from paying vig on golfers in the placement market. However, Tony Finau, it’s a price that I must play. TPC courses are generally bested by golfers who gain a ton of strokes ball striking. At TPC Scottsdale, course history and Strokes Gained at comp courses correlates to success. Over the past five seasons, Finau doesn’t have the most impressive course history here, having missed the cut three times and a runner-up finish. He did win at the 3M Open, which is played a TPC Twin Cities, another course that requires strength off-the-tee and brilliant approach play. Finau has yet to get a win here, but anytime he tees it up on the west coast, he is a threat to win.
Jason Day Top 30 +115
After an impressive Fall Swing, it’s time to consider buying Jason Day shares, especially at events that demand excellent approach play. He’s finished inside the top 30 in five of his last six events. He gained strokes on approach in all but two of them. What’s been more impressive is how well he’s performed on the putting surface. He’s gained strokes, putting in everyone one of those events but two. He gained +4.9 strokes, putting at the American Express and another +5.8 at Farmers. Day, a past winner of The Players Championship, is set up for a strong week.
