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On again off again the players went to and fro the golf course on Thursday as thunderstorms delayed first round action. With all but one group of the morning wave able to complete the entirety of their days, a Monday finish appears inevitable given tomorrow’s forecast.
More of the same will be in store on Friday, as those who finished today will likely not strike a golf shot until the weekend. This crop of players includes Tommy Fleetwood who was the first to sign for a round of 6-under 66. Inconsistent over the past two years, the world No. 49 relied primarily on his short game to surge to the top of the leaderboard, posting +1.90 Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and +2.06 SG: Putting.
With previous Players Championship finishes of T-5 and T-7, Fleetwood spoke to his love affair with TPC Sawgrass. The 31-year-old said, “I would say it’s very much a ball striker’s golf course. I think my strengths over the years have always been hitting it in play off the tee. Very consistent, hit a lot of greens with my irons and never really put myself in too much trouble and have a very sort of patient attitude and mindset.”
The Englishman added, “It’s very much -- I love this golf course. I really, really do. If you play well, you get rewarded, and if you play poorly, you’re going to struggle to make a score. I think it’s major-like in that sense. Again, when I’m playing well, I’m obviously going to drive it well and put the ball in play a lot and then not make too many mistakes. So, the years that I did play well, I obviously did that particularly well.”
Fleetwood will need to improve on his ball-striking if he wants to stick around as (more) rain and high winds are expected for Saturday. Some of our selections are in the same boat, namely Patrick Cantlay (E) who could not find the short grass from off-the-tee the majority of the day.
With plenty of golf still to be played, the written plays will be light as they likely will not occur in the next 24 hours. If anything catches my eye after the completion of Round 1, it will be found as a reply to the tweet of this article.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet Sportsbook):
+1000: Collin Morikawa
+1200: Jon Rahm
+1400: Justin Thomas
+1600: Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood
+2000: Cameron Smith, Joaquin Niemann
+2200: Rory McIlroy
+2500: Tom Hoge
+2800: Daniel Berger, Louis Oosthuizen
+3000: Sam Burns
+3300: Abraham Ancer, Brian Harman, Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, Xander Schauffele
+4000: Billy Horschel, Cameron Young, Jason Day, Justin Rose, Keith Mitchell, Russell Henley, Viktor Hovland
+5000: Patrick Cantlay, Talor Gooch
+6000: Corey Conners, Thomas Pieters
+6600: Chris Kirk, Max Homa, Si Woo Kim
+7000: Tyrrell Hatton
+8000: Jason Kokrak, Jhonattan Vegas, Marc Leishman, Matt Fitzpatrick
+10000: Alex Noren, Bubba Watson, Harold Varner III, Sungjae Im, Keegan Bradley, Kramer Hickok, Lee Westwood, Mackenzie Hughes, Maverick McNealy, Sergio Garcia, Taylor Pendrith
Round 2 Plays (To be played sometime before the end of the tournament):
Sebastian Munoz +146 over Jimmy Walker and Dylan Frittelli at DraftKings (1.00 unit):
There is a Players Championship boost applied to this wager, but the original line of +125 is still one I would indulge in. I offered this play up on a couple shows earlier this week and while Munoz and Walker did tie each other at 2-under, nothing has changed my mind regarding the misprice.
As noted in the first-round leader article (pain), the Colombian was averaging +1.92 SG: Tee-to-Green in his last 12 rounds heading into this week. Posting +1.35 SG: Tee-to-Green on Thursday, I envision a similar performance producing a winning ticket the second time around.
While Walker outpaced Munoz in the tee-to-green department in Round 1, I remain at ease. Chipping in and connecting from distance with the putter on numerous occasions, the 43-year-old should fade whenever they do in fact tee it up. The least bit worried about the serial Instagram commenter that is Frittelli, Munoz makes for the second round selection.
2/3-Balls YTD: -9.75 units, -31.08%
Total YTD: +57.44 units, +88.00%
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