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The field for the final official PGA Tour event of 2022 got an overhaul Tuesday morning when Tony Finau withdrew because of injury. Finau, fresh off a decisive win at the Houston Open and looking to go back-to-back for the second time in four months, was a prohibitive (+850) betting favorite. But without his presence looming at the top of the odds, things are officially wide-open at Sea Island.
The Seaside and Plantation Courses will share hosting duties this week along the Georgia shore, with three of the four rounds played on the more difficult Seaside layout. For most players in the field, this is their last event until the Sony Open in January or perhaps even later. It’s also a place where we have seen some longshots come through despite a relatively short tournament history: Austin Cook, Tyler Duncan, Tommy Gainey and Robert Streb (twice!) have all lifted the trophy.
With Finau out and most of the game’s biggest names preparing to carve their Thanksgiving turkey, here’s a glance at a few players that I’m looking to back this week in the outright market - starting with a course horse who has done everything but win this event:
Webb Simpson (+4000)
Simpson has twice lost this event in a playoff, first to Ben Crane in 2011 and again to Tyler Duncan in 2019. He’s admittedly a shell of his former self, having fallen from inside the top 10 as recently as May 2021 to No. 111 entering this week. But Sea Island is a place where he can have (and has had) considerable success, including a T-8 finish last year that remains his best result in the last 12 months. Simpson can’t keep pace on some of the brawnier venues on Tour, but this is one that fits his style of play and a course where we have seen players of a similar build (think Zach Johnson) have some success despite coming in with weeks of poor results. Some players in this field may be counting down the hours and days until a much-needed break, but Simpson should have his eye on the ball.
Matthew NeSmith (+4000)
NeSmith went to school at nearby South Carolina, and he actually won an SEC title on this course back in 2015. He’s a feast-or-famine player who can make birdies in bunches, but he struggled mightily last week in Houston when the driver went astray. That ended a run of three straight top-10s, including a runner-up result in Las Vegas. NeSmith will likely course correct off the tee this week at an event where he has finished T-29 or better in all three prior starts, including a pair of top-15s. He remains a top-tier talent with his irons, ranking 30th last season in SG: Approach and 27th this fall, which means he’ll provide himself with plenty of birdie opportunities. This is an event that has christened a number of first-time champions, so don’t be surprised if NeSmith joins that group and punches a ticket to Maui (and Augusta) before the holidays.
David Lipsky (+6000)
After playing much of his career abroad, Lipsky appears ready to finally make a name for himself within the lower 48. He has four straight finishes of T-44 or better, including a T-10 finish at Mayakoba and a T-22 result last week in Houston where he closed Sunday with a 3-under 67. Lipsky doesn’t have a ton of firepower off the tee but he won’t need it this week, instead relying on his solid iron play and short game on a course where birdies should come in bunches. Lipsky missed the cut last year in his lone prior appearance at Sea Island, but he’s coming in with considerable more form and looking to cap a solid fall with a watershed victory.
Davis Thompson (+8000)
Few know this course better than Thompson, who won the Jones Cup at nearby Ocean Forest in 2020 and whose father serves as the tournament director. Like NeSmith, he’s in search of his first Tour win but has put together a solid fall campaign: four made cuts in four starts, highlighted by a T-9 finish in Napa and a T-12 result in Vegas. Thompson is 15th on Tour this season in SG: Off the Tee, averaging more than 314 yards per drive. If he’s able to lean on a strong driver this week on the Seaside Course that could help him pick up even more strokes on the field. Thompson has missed the cut here each of the last two years, but he finished T-23 in 2019 and I’m willing to take a flier on a player whose typical weakness on and around the greens could be negated by some familiarity this time around.
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