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As expected, the stars showed out in Scottsdale, Arizona as the cream rose to the top of the WM Phoenix Open leaderboard on Thursday. With chilly temperatures and pestering winds in the morning, it was the defending champion, Brooks Koepka (-5), who braved the conditions most effectively.
Beginning his day on the back-nine, the four-time major champion was tasked with navigating the most difficult holes first. Trading a birdie for a bogey through his first three-holes, Koepka played mistake-free golf from there on in.
Taking advantage of each par-5 and tacking on additional birdies on the drivable par-4 17th and the closing par-4 ninth, the world No. 20 signed for a round of 5-under 66. Closing at +4000 at PointsBet Sportsbook, Koepka will enter the second round at +1200 as he looks to add a third WM Phoenix Open trophy to his mantle.
Peppered with questions regarding his form in his post-round press conference, Koepka said, “Listen, I’ve been playing good for a while, so I think everybody on my team expected this. But, yeah, I mean, I do like the golf course. I mean, two wins here it would be tough to say you don’t like it.”
Having to play through the heckles of a Friday afternoon at TPC Scottsdale, Koepka and the rest of the AM-PM wave still have their work cut out for them tomorrow. As opposed to the likes of Patrick Cantlay (-4), Justin Thomas (-4), and two-time winner Hideki Matsuyama (-3) who will have to cater to the brunch crowd.
The trio along with world No. 1 Jon Rahm (-4) were dealt the better hand as those who played in the afternoon faced more pleasant temperatures and little to no wind. All were able to position themselves nicely with 54-holes to go as they look to chase down Sahith Theegala (-7). Still needing to complete his first-round -- Round 1 was suspended due to darkness -- the Pepperdine standout has once again found his name on the first page of a leaderboard.
Like Theegala we too have a tall mountain to climb as we attempt to capture our first victory (in Round 2). With most of our pre-tournament wagers in a decent position, we will look for a couple world-class players to bounce back in their three-balls.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
+475: Jon Rahm
+800: Justin Thomas
+1000: Patrick Cantlay
+1200: Brooks Koepka
+1400: Hideki Matsuyama
+1600: Xander Schauffele
+2000: Bubba Watson,
+2200: Louis Oosthuizen
+2800: Sahith Theegala, K.H. Lee
+3000: Adam Hadwin, Billy Horschel, Sam Burns, Scottie Scheffler
+4000: Abraham Ancer, Adam Scott
+5000: Charley Hoffman, Jordan Spieth
+6000: Alex Noren, Gary Woodland
+6600: Kevin Kisner
+7000: Keith Mitchell
+8000: Brian Harman, Harry Higgs, Scott Stallings
+9000: Max Homa
Round 2 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet):
Daniel Berger +135 over Charley Hoffman and Lucas Herbert (1.00 unit):
A couple achy backs fill this group as Berger and Hoffman were both WDs last week. With Berger’s occurring pre-tournament and Hoffman’s in-tournament, I would be lying if I said I was not surprised with Hoffman’s play today.
Posting a score of 4-under 67, Hoffman ranked 11th in the field in both SG: Around-the-Green and SG: Putting. Bermuda Championship winner and the player to round out this threesome, Herbert, possessed a similar statistical output en route to his round of 1-under 70.
They got the better of Berger handedly as the Ryder Cupper struggled on Thursday carding a 2-over 73. However, let us not forget who this man is. A top-3 iron player on Tour and stubbornly accurate off-the-tee, one round will not sway my opinion of the world No. 19 as I will happily be taking the odds discount in Round 2.
Viktor Hovland +175 over Jordan Spieth and Xander Schauffele (1.00 unit):
It will be more of the same in our second selection as the world No. 3 was unable to carry his play from the desert of Dubai to the desert of Scottsdale. Hitting only three fairways and 11 greens in regulation on Thursday, Hovland not only struck the ball poorly, but was unable to find his touch with the putter in hand.
Struggling with the speed on his putts for most of the day, it is hard to envision the young Norwegian experiencing a similar round tomorrow. Claiming victory in three of his last five starts worldwide, I will chalk the first-round up as an anomaly as his form is clearly present.
Spieth is in the midst of some strong play as well, having factored in last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Continuing to strike the ball adequately in Round 1, the Texan is a scary player to bet against and even more so on a course he fancies. Yet the sentiment from our second-round article a week ago still occupies the back of my mind and while things did not work out for us then, I am hopeful it will tomorrow with a player of Hovland’s caliber in our corner.
The final dodge will be Schauffele whose first-round was highlighted by an eagle-3 from a greenside bunker on the par-5 15th. With his chipping and pitching carrying the load on Thursday and admittingly “fishing” for things in his swing, I see the Olympic gold medalist having a middling round tomorrow.
2/3-Balls YTD: -3.50 units, -17.84%
Total YTD: +44.60 units, +113.93%
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