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The final four-hole stretch on Saturday may very well tell the tale of the 2022 WM Phoenix Open when all is said and done. With three members of the United States Ryder Cup Team positioned to take control of the tournament, it felt it was not a matter of if, but when one would seize the moment and charge ahead.
Unable to, Brooks Koepka (-13), Patrick Cantlay (-12), and Xander Schauffele (-12) effectively left the front door of the frat party unmanned heading into tomorrow’s 18. Looking to crash the scene is the overnight leader and now 54-hole leader, Sahith Theegala (-14), who after an early double-bogey, settled into his round and more than held his own in Saturday’s final group.
Playing his last 13-holes in a 4-under fashion, the 24-year-old rookie appeared to be in his element among the screams of “I have $10,000 on you.” While exaggerations – and beers – were tossed from the crowds, what cannot be exaggerated was Theegala’s composure.
Needing more of the same tomorrow, Theegala discussed his expectations for the final round. Saying, “I just am sticking to the process. I haven’t even thought about the future at all. Just trying to enjoy this week as much as possible and I have one more day to do that tomorrow, so that’s all I’m going to be worried about. Whatever happens tomorrow happens, right? Like I’m not going to be able to – as long as I go through my process, have a good attitude, have a good time out there, let my golf game do what it does, you know. So haven’t thought anything about what this could mean.”
With Scottie Scheffler (-12) taking “Moving Day” quite literally, Theegala’s task of holding off a crop of the game’s elite becomes even more difficult. Throw in the likes of Hideki Matsuyama (-11), last week’s winner Tom Hoge (-11), and putting maestros Adam Hadwin (-11) and Alex Noren (-11) and Sunday is setting up to be – dare I say – super.
Joining the best friends of Cantlay and Schauffele in the chasing pack are the good friends of Talor Gooch (-12) and Max Homa (-11). While those ahead limped into the clubhouse, the duo’s games rose with the decibel levels.
With Homa playing his final five-holes in 4-under and Gooch playing his final three-holes in 3-under, the two gave us an outside chance for our third outright winner of 2022. Keith Mitchell (-9) may have some potential as well, but needing to post something in the neighborhood of 63 and with so many ahead of him on the leaderboard, it is likely too much to ask of the 30-year-old.
As such, we will look to improve our matchup record yet again. Homa came through for us in Round 3 and Spieth did the opposite, so with the small loss of Saturday still fresh on the mind, let’s attempt to finish the week strong.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet Sportsbook):
+275: Brooks Koepka
+600: Sahith Theegala
+650: Xander Schauffele
+700: Patrick Cantlay
+800: Scottie Scheffler
+1100: Hideki Matsuyama
+1200: Talor Gooch
+2000: Max Homa
+2800: Alex Noren, Tom Hoge
+3300: Adam Hadwin
+8000: Bubba Watson, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas
+10000: J.T. Poston, Louis Oosthuizen
+12500: Billy Horschel, Keith Mitchell
+20000: Austin Eckroat, Patton Kizzire
Round 4 Plays:
Abraham Ancer -105 over Adam Scott at BetRivers (1.05 units)
It was a disappointing Moving Day for Ancer as the Mexican signed for an even-par 71. Finishing the day eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green by way of sixth in SG: Off-the-Tee and eighth in SG: Approach, Ancer struggled mightily on the greens.
Losing nearly four-strokes with the putter, while positive regression is likely tomorrow, his ball-striking trend is what catches my eye. Hitting more Greens in Regulation by the round, Ancer connected on 16-of-18 in Round 3. Leading the field in Driving Accuracy and top-15 in scrambling percentage, I envision the 30-year-old piecing it all together tomorrow.
Not necessarily a fade of Scott, more so a play on the number, there is one glaring weak spot in the Australian’s game. Hitting 19-of-42 fairways up to this point, with plenty of trouble looming, just one wayward swing could sway this in the direction of Ancer.
Troy Merritt +116 over Corey Conners at BetRivers (1.00 unit)
He finished last week on a high note, so why can’t he do it again. Merritt was terrific to finish off the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and said form has steadily come to light as this week has progressed. Ranking third in Greens in Regulation, hitting 45-of-54, the 36-year-old has leaned on his iron-play to get to 6-under.
17th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 24th in SG: Off-the-Tee, his around-the-green finally showed some signs of life and contributed to his bogey-free round of 3-under 68 on Saturday. While he sits 56th in SG: Putting for the week, he has been net positive in Rounds 2 and 3, so it appears the comfort level is growing.
It pains me to go against Conners as he was a pre-tournament selection, but this week has not gone as I predicted. Losing strokes on approach and bleeding strokes around-the-green, the Canadian ranks 18th in SG: Putting. Had he been able to bring his typically sharp iron-play to Scottsdale, it is likely he is in one of the final groups tomorrow.
Unfortunately, not the case, Conners has only hit 36-of-54 greens and is 12-of-25 getting up-and-down. Relying so heavily on his putter, the pressure should burst this bubble, giving way to Merritt to close the week out nicely for us.
2/3-Balls YTD: -3.20 units, -13.43%
Total YTD: +44.90 units, +103.59%
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