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There is nothing quite like an early weekend as local residents and tourists alike will be out in full force at TPC Scottsdale on Thursday. Whether taking in the golf, the mountains in the distance, or the extracurricular activities, the WM Phoenix Open is sure to start off in the rowdiest of fashions.
We would not mind a memorable beginning as the first-round market returns to PointsBet Sportsbook this week. After three consecutive tournaments featuring multiple courses, finally the entirety of the field will be priced up against one another.
Our preferred layout for Thursdays, TPC Scottsdale is the perfect melting pot for a first-round longshot. Having to only look back to last season, both Mark Hubbard and Matthew NeSmith were able to sign for rounds of 8-under 63 in Round 1.
Needing to take advantage of the three par-5s and avoid the trouble that lurks, we will look for strong tee-to-green players in our first-round selections. With players such as Kyle Stanley, Gary Woodland, and Hideki Matsuyama finding success on this par-71, poor putters have proven capable on the Tom Weiskopf design.
With tee times split between morning and afternoon hours once again, weather “analysis” is reintroduced into our article. As of now, there are actually some reports of a blustery morning. Not typically the case, we will split our selections down the middle as I am sure the forecast will evolve over the next day or so.
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Odds to Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
+2000: Jon Rahm
+2800: Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland
+3000: Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele
+3300: Brooks Koepka, Scottie Scheffler
+4000: Bubba Watson, Daniel Berger, Louis Oosthuizen, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Webb Simpson
+5000: Abraham Ancer, Adam Scott, Talor Gooch
+6000: Branden Grace, Corey Conners, Harold Varner III, Harris English, Luke List, Russell Henley, Seamus Power, Tom Hoge
To Lead After the First-Round:
Russell Knox +10000 at PointsBet (0.20 units)
We looked in Knox’s direction in the California desert and while it proved to be a barren wasteland, perhaps Arizona can provide an oasis for the Scotsman. Besides the obvious parallel between the name of the host city and the 36-year-old’s native country, there is a lot to like about Knox’s chances in the first-round.
Carding rounds of par-or-better in 11 of his last 12 outings at TPC Scottsdale, Knox has garnered a scoring average of 68.83 since 2019. With rounds of 66-67-67 in this time frame, the two-time winner on the PGA Tour has found considerable success with the putter in hand.
Leading this field in Greens in Regulation and ranking inside the top-15 in SG: Approach and proximity from 150 to 175 yards over the last 24 rounds, the flat stick will be the eventual difference maker. Posting single-round performances of at least +2.0 SG: Putting three times in his last 12 rounds at TPC Scottsdale, if able to replicate such efforts, Knox has the game to run hot in the desert.
Martin Laird +10000 at PointsBet (0.20 units)
A trip to Scottsdale would not be complete without one too many doubles – hopefully not bogeys in this instance. As if one Scotsman was not enough, Laird is difficult to look past given his notable success in the desert. While the two victories in Las Vegas draw the most attention, his play a bit further south in Arizona is nearly as impressive.
Collecting four top-10s in his last 11 showings in the WM Phoenix Open, Laird’s steady off-the-tee play combined with his precise iron-play from 150 to 175 yards has proven to be perfectly suited for the test TPC Scottsdale presents.
Striking his irons adequately in his last start at Torrey Pines, like Knox, Laird is a cooperative putting day away from a strong opening round. With single-round efforts of +4.7, +4.2, +3.2, +2.8, and +2.2 SG: Putting at TPC Scottsdale, Laird’s potential to catch fire on the greens has previously materialized and gives me enough confidence to look in his direction.
Nate Lashley +10000 at PointsBet (0.20 units)
The former Arizona Wildcat turned Scottsdale resident has thrived when the Tour has stopped in his locale. With finishes of T-3 and T-17 in his two appearances in the WM Phoenix Open, Lashley has been able to put together a scoring average of 67.75.
With all eight of his tournament rounds coming in at 70-or-better, Lashley’s best day was the first-round in last year’s tournament. Carding a 7-under 64, he fell one off the pace of Hubbard and NeSmith, but between this and his victory at the 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic, he is no stranger to taking it low.
His irons have been rather solid to begin 2022 outside of the first-round of The American Express. If this remains true, his Thursday will be dependent on his putter. Gaining strokes on the field with the putter in 6-of-8 rounds at TPC Scottsdale, the familiarity with his hometown track should be apparent once again.
Wyndham Clark +12500 at BetRivers (0.16 units)
From one Scottsdale resident to another, Clark has very quietly put together a great 2021-22 season thus far. Making seven consecutive cuts, the 28-year-old has found a string of consistency which has eluded him in the past. Now set for his fourth WM Phoenix Open, Clark’s comfort level in the desert has slowly evolved.
It began in 2020 when he opened his tournament with a 10-under 61. Only to be hindered by a poor weekend, Clark rebounded the following year with two rounds of 67. Showcasing the ability to get around TPC Scottsdale in an effective manner, he arrives this year in arguably much better form.
Known for his distance off-the-tee and abilities on the greens, Clark has discovered his iron-play in 2022. Gaining more than one-stroke on approach in half of his measured rounds, this could be a sign of things to come for University of Oregon product.
James Hahn +13000 at DraftKings Sportsbook (0.15 units)
We were high on Hahn at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and even discussed him a bit in our outright selections this week. While unable to stomach his full tournament prospects, for Round 1, I am all in – shoutout to Jason Kokrak.
In his two measured rounds this year, Hahn has posted a combined +5.4 SG: Tee-to-Green with the majority coming from his iron-play. One of the most accurate drivers in the game, this should be a perfect combination as Hahn has successfully implemented the “split fairways and hit greens” strategy at TPC Scottsdale before.
While Hahn’s lowest round since 2018 has only been 5-under 66, this year could be the perfect marriage of tee-to-green and putting. Posting north of one-stroke gained on the greens in 9 of his last 16 rounds at the WM Phoenix Open, this is one of the rare weeks where we should expect Hahn to make putts with regularity.
J.T. Poston +15000 at BetMGM (0.13 units)
The first-round flop played right into the hands of Poston as he is paired with good buddies Joel Dahmen and Keith Mitchell. Already experiencing immaculate vibes at TPC Scottsdale, the Sea Island resident should feel right at home on Thursday.
Making his fourth WM Phoenix Open appearance, the 28-year-old has captured finishes of T-26, T-37, and T-11 courtesy of a tournament scoring average of 68.67. Failing to break par only once, Poston’s best round in this event came in his first when he opened the 2019 tournament with a 6-under 65.
Our lone selection to rely primarily on his putter, Poston has posted positive SG: Off-the-Tee numbers in each measured round this year. With his irons flashing some upside in Round 1 of the Sony Open (+2.6 SG: Approach), I am willing to suggest the other J.T. will post a low one on Thursday.
First-Round Leaders YTD: -4.76 units, -100.00%
Total YTD: +45.65 units, +119.81%
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