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Eric Lauer O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Pirates
Eric Lauer will be making his second start of the season but the third appearance against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Lauer pitched on Wednesday, 3.0 innings of relief work against Pittsburgh, posting four strikeouts, two walks and one earned run on two hits. Lauer entered the game up 6-0 and earned the hold, exiting up 7-1 after the eighth.
In his first and only start against Pittsburgh, well, that also came in July (7/3), and he went 6.1 innings for 97 pitches -- both season-highs.
While that is impressive and would make you lean an Over for the strikeout prop, Lauer only recorded four Ks compared to four walks, and four hits for one earned run.
Lauer is not a strikeout guy in a clubhouse that is full of them. His strikeout percentage is in the 47th percentile, whiff percentage is 27th percentile and chase rate is 14th, per baseballsavant.com.
Lauer’s spin rate has also decreased from 2250 RPM in May to 2182 RPM in June and 2177 in July thus far, per baseballsavant.com. Not a significant drop but his average has decreased steadily month by month, something worth noting.
Over the last two months, Lauer has pitched 42.1 innings, struck out 45, walked 30 and allowed 36 hits for 21 earned runs and a 2-3 record over eight starts and one relief appearance.
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The Pirates are one of the toughest teams to strike out, and Lauer would need at least one K per inning and/or to exceed 5.0 innings pitched. That will be tough against a team that has struck out the second-fewest times over the past week.
In six games, the Pirates have 39 strikeouts and walked 16 times. Kyle Gibson and Aaron Nola started the previous two games and recorded five Ks each, as did the previous four starting pitchers, making it six consecutive Under 5.5 Ks total.
Pittsburgh is hitting a terrible .199 in the past six games, but they faced Gibson, Nola, Vince Velasquez, Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser and Brett Anderson.
In the first series against the Brewers this past week, the Pirates did not get a single run scored off either of the three starters.
However, in the next three against the Phillies, the Pirates scored nine total runs, with at least two in every outing off the starting pitcher, per statmuse.
Over the past 10 games, only Alex Wood and Johnny Cueto posted six or more strikeouts against the Pirates.
In the last three games, the Pirates have recorded 21 Ks for 7.0 per game. Reiterating, Lauer would have to do most of that himself or last at least 5.0 innings to have a favorable chance at six-plus Ks.
Take the Under as NBC’s player prop model has him projected at 5.3 Ks in 5.1 innings against the Pirates. I grabbed this at -125, I would play to -140 range for 1u.
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Pick: Eric Lauer Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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